English local elections 2011

[Pete Whitehead]

Region;

Hertfordshire:

Broxbourne          Dacorum             E. Hertfordshire    Hertsmere           N. Hertfordshire
Con 63.1% (-0.9%)   Con 53.4% (+2.1%)   Con 58.2% (+10.6%)  Con 59.6% (+0.1%)   Con 48.4% (+1.4%)
Lab 26.1% (+7.1%)   Lab 25.7% (+7.3%)   Lab 19.4% (+8.4%)   Lab 29.0% (+8.8%)   Lab 22.9% (+4.4%)
EDP  4.7% (+4.7%)   Lib 18.2% (-2.7%)   Lib 12.9% (-6.1%)   Lib 10.3% (-3.6%)   Lib 17.6% (-8.1%)
UKI  2.4% (+2.4%)   Grn  2.0% (-3.5%)   Ind  9.2% (-8.6%)   UKI  0.9% (+0.9%)   Grn  8.2% (+0.8%
Ind  1.9% (+1.9%)   Ind  0.5% (-2.1%)   TUS  0.2% (+0.2%)   [Grn 3.9% (-3.9%)]  UKI  1.9% (+1.0%)
Lib  1.7% (-1.1%)   EDP  0.2% (+0.2%)   [Grn 2.8% (-2.8%)]  [SLP 1.2% (-1.2%)]  Ind  0.7% (+0.2%)
[BNP13.3% (-13.3%)] [N-F 1.3% (-1.3%)]  [BNP 1.0% (-1.0%)]  [Ind 1.1% (-1.1%)]  EDP  0.2% (+0.2%)
[N-P 0.5% (-0.5%)]                      [UKI 0.6% (-0.6%)]
[N-F 0.4% (-0.4%)]

St. Albans          Stevenage           Three Rivers        Watford             Welwyn Hatfield
Con 42.5% (+1.4%)   Lab 46.8% (+0.0%)   Lib 42.5% (-12.4%)  Lib 36.7% (-10.3%)  Con 53.6% (-0.9%)
Lib 29.3% (-9.3%)   Con 31.2% (+1.1%)   Con 38.2% (+2.5%)   Lab 28.0% (+10.5%)  Lab 30.1% (+5.0%)
Lab 19.6% (+6.5%)   Lib 10.3% (-11.0%)  Lab 15.7% (+8.0%)   Con 23.5% (-0.7%)   Lib 13.2% (-3.5%)
Grn  8.3% (+1.1%)   UKI 10.0% (+10.0%)  UKI  2.5% (+1.8%)   Grn  9.9% (-0.7%)   Grn  2.8% (-0.8%)
Ind  0.3% (+0.3%)   TUS  1.2% (+1.2%)   EDP  0.7% (+0.7%)   UKI  1.1% (+1.1%)   Ind  0.2% (+0.2%)
                    Grn  0.4% (-0.4%)   Grn  0.3% (-0.7%)   Ind  0.7% (+0.0%)
                    [BNP 1.0% (-1.0%)]

A great job you've done here collating all these results.  One thing that worries me is that my figures disagree with yours for Dacorum and for East Hertfordshire (I've only done this for Hertfordshire other than the Met boroughs).  It could be my figures are wrong, but I suspect there is a difference in methodology.  I have taken the highest polling candidate for each party in each ward rather than using the (admittedly superior) average method. Looking at your Waveney score though it appears you may not have used either of these systems, but rather added all the votes cast, which means that in districts such as these where there are mixtures of 1,2 and 3 members the results can be heavily skewed. (I got involved in a bit of a debate about this re: Gravesham where adding together all votes cast gave Labour a plurality - falsely in my view).  If you have used this method the figures would not only be wrong in themselves, but the changes in vote share would be misleading as in the case of Dacorum, the changes would appear to be from the figures here (insert link to 2007 results in Dacorum from Andrew Teale's website*) where top vote method has been used. IN other words you would not be comparing like with like.

*I know its only 20 posts, but this is the most annoying rule

[Pete Whitehead]

Thanks Andrew. Yes I do it for the same reason. Its rare that the result will be wildly different between top vote and average method anyway and the top vote certainly saves a lot of time. 
Thrasher & Rallings use top vote method in the Local election chronicles, though they did switch at some point from using average votes

[Pete Whitehead]

Telford & Wrekin as a sort of New Year present. I can explain just about everything. But, damn, is that pretty.

Can you explain the seemingly strange Labour strength in Ironbridge Gorge ward? Obviously it was historically an industrial area, but looking on Google maps it looks all very pleaseant, picture-postcard now.  Looking at the census stats its very owner-occupied, very middle class.
Muesli eaters?
I note there was a swing from Labour to Conservative in 2011, with a new Labour candidate, but still..

Incidentally I had a little discussion about this area recently in another place
htt p://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/thewrekin/
I'd be interested in any thoughts you have about that - its various posts from 12th March onwards (you'd have to sift through a load of crap about voting systems)