Obama 411
Giuliani 66
Whoever 71Third Party, essentially conservative with a Southern base. Obama wins everything that he won in real life + MO, MT, AZ, WV, NE-01 and MS.
The conservative vote splits enough to allow Obama to win West Virginia; conservatives split the white vote in most of the South but only enough to allow Obama to win Mississippi in a 38-32-30 split. Texas gets a similar split for Giuliani, where George Bush actively campaigns for him. That's the
elder George H.W. Bush, of course. Georgia barely goes to the Southern conservative in a similar split.
