MarkD
Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,231
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« on: July 27, 2019, 07:44:35 AM » |
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There are too many variables to figure this out. Between 2012 and 2016 there were hundreds of thousands of voters, in those three states alone, who died, and hundreds of thousands of new voters who turned out for the first time in 2016. The number of votes cast for minor parties went up significantly.
In 2012, the total number of votes cast for President in those three states was 13,553,065. In 2016, the total number of votes cast was 13,940,912. In 2012, Obama got 7,175,828 votes across those three states. In 2016, Clinton got 6,577,816 votes across those three states. In 2012, Romney got 6,203,656 votes. In 2016, Trump got 6,655,560 votes. In 2012, 189,886 votes were cast for others. In 2016, 734,045 votes were cast for others.
There's no way that I can figure out which voters made the difference for Trump from data like this. I doubt exit polling was done in just those three states.
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