Who Will The Republicans Look to in 2012

[Mr. Morden]

Does anyone think maybe Tom Ridge would consider a run for the Presidency. or Colin Powell and if so What party would he run in.

How old is Colin Powell now?  Too old to run is the answer, but I'd like to know exactly.

He's 71 right now, which means that he'll be 75 on Election Day 2012....even older than Bob Dole was in 1996.

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True, but since people will have to start deciding on whether to make the run in early/mid-2011, that might be too early to know if Obama will have been seen as "successful" by Nov. 2012.  Remember 1992, when all the big name Democrats declined to run, because they were certain that Bush would be reelected?

Anyway, to answer the original question, I would guess that Romney and Huckabee would be the early frontrunners.  I don't think that Palin or Jindal will run.

[Mr. Morden]

Why do people think Jindal is going to run in 2012?  He'll only be 41 years old, and have the one term as governor.  Wouldn't it make a lot more sense for him to wait until 2016 or later?  Yes, yes, I know Obama ran in 2008 with just 4 years worth of experience in the Senate, but that was an unusual case, and Obama didn't have to give up his Senate seat to do it.

In Jindal's case, he'd probably have to give up on reelection if he wants to run for president, since the Louisiana governors' race is in Nov. 2011, while the 2012 presidential primaries will begin in Jan. 2012.  It would seem to be kind of impractical to be campaigning in Louisiana for governor while simultaneously campaigning in Iowa for president.

[Mr. Morden]

Haha. Well, lets have a look-see. Two conditions; states are OK, TX, AR, LA, MS, AL, FL, GA, SC, NC, VA, KY and TN; and they must be women in office or portentially in office until November 2010 or later.

Governors:

None.

Senators:

Kay Bailey Hutchison (TX)

House (Only those elected prior to 2004):

Ginny Brown-Waite (FL)
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL) (ineligible)
Sue Myrick (NC)
Marsha Blackburn (TN)
Kay Granger (TX)

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In my opinion, the ones with a chance are Marsha Blackburn if she plays her cards right, and Kay Bailey Hutchison if she remains in the Senate or wins TX Governorship.

Hutchison has already said that she won't run for reelection, and it's widely believed that she intends to run for governor.  Why bother running for governor if you're immediately going to turn around and start running for president the second after you're inaugurated?

And isn't Blackburn considered a possibility for TN gov. in 2010 as well?  If so, same issue.  One would presume that she'd wait until she's served at least one term as governor before running for president.

[Mr. Morden]

Anyways, this thread will be amusing to bump in four years or so.  If Obama is vulnerable in four years, certain names will arise.  If not, certain names will disappear.

Right, but I'd say more like two and a half years than four years.  Anyone running for president in 2012 will have to decide in early/mid-2011.  Obama's political fortunes could change drastically between then and November 2012.  Remember 1992, and all those top tier Dem. candidates who opted out because Bush looked unbeatable.

[Mr. Morden]

I'd say Bobby Jindal or Sarah Palin.

I repeat:

Why do people think Jindal is going to run in 2012?  He'll only be 41 years old, and have the one term as governor.  Wouldn't it make a lot more sense for him to wait until 2016 or later?  Yes, yes, I know Obama ran in 2008 with just 4 years worth of experience in the Senate, but that was an unusual case, and Obama didn't have to give up his Senate seat to do it.

In Jindal's case, he'd probably have to give up on reelection if he wants to run for president, since the Louisiana governors' race is in Nov. 2011, while the 2012 presidential primaries will begin in Jan. 2012.  It would seem to be kind of impractical to be campaigning in Louisiana for governor while simultaneously campaigning in Iowa for president.