Australia - 7 September 2013

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I'm on my phone, so hopefully others will put this down... first Newspoll is uuuuuugly for the Government.

Outlier is outlier.

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Makes Howard look more like a wimp in my opinion, or do I need more context here?

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Chances that Abbott pulls an Akin?

Although, I guess if it was coming, he's had like 3 1/2 years now...

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Anyone?

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Shorten and Gray are pinging caucus to gauge Gillard's support.

How many days before the last election did Gillard swoop on Kev? I don't remember it being this close...

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Some radio jackass asked Gillard if Mathieson is gay.

Fuc*wit

Say what you like about her style or her policies, but such personal attacks that we've seen this week are vile.

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I go away for a few days and all this happens! Typical.

Not really thinking that it'll work for the ALP though...

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This is lovely, if you haven't already seen it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBuJtROPaXI

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I can't help but feel sheer sympathy for Julia.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsECK-gRCGc

Wow. It explains a lot, but not everything as she said.

I sure hope filth like this never meets any female UK leaders. I feel sick.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8M0Sf7a34g

New ad from Rudd and the ALP

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The 'Geek Vs. Hot-head' strategy seems like a viable one.

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Looking at the polls it seems that even given how unpopular Gillard was, Abbot was not able to get a consistent lead over Gillard on the question of who is better PM.  Now that Rudd is back it seems that Abbot is losing by a mile.  It is most likely too late but did not the fact that Abbot was not able to win in 2010 and given the fact that Abbot was not that much more popular than Gillard despite ongoing Labor civil war mean that the Liberals should have thought about dumping Abbot and replacing him with someone more likely to be more popular.  Or were the Liberals sure they would run against Gillard so it does not matter.

They kept him because the Libs far outperformed expectations in 2010, even coming within a whisker of Abbott becoming PM. And following the election, the Liberals gained a solid lead so there wasn't the panic that comes with bad polls.

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How long until Joe Hockey starts canvassing?

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Surely the ALP has room to improve as well?

A lot of opposition is surely built on what voters see as a fractious, divided party. If they can get rid of that image, they can grow.

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From the same Newspoll:

Election before 14/9 24%
On 14/9 25%
After 14/9 9%

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I'm obviously not in a place to be able to say, but this just doesn't seem like a change election, especially if the ALP can play on the buyer's remorse in Victoria and Queensland.

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Whoa.

That's true treachery.

Surely JG didn't know.

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If Labour pulls this out, it would be one of the smartest tactical moves I've seen in a long time !

If Labor pulls this off, it'd be the world's most baffling comeback since Kevin Rudd became Labor leader again, funnily enough.

Tony Abbott: the Neil Kinnock of the Australian right?

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AMR's online poll on the effect of replacing Abbott with Turnbull:

http://www.amr-australia.com.au/asset/cms/AMR_Federal_Poll_10.07.2013.pdf

2PP:
Labor 51%
Coalition 49%

2PP if Turnbull was Liberal leader:
Coalition 57%
Labor 43%

I'm surprised at the results of that poll, the Liberals under Turnbull did considerably worse than the Liberals under Abbott against Rudd Labor, in the period 2008-10.

People don't start listening to oppositions until the government gets unpopular.

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http://www.mediafire.com/?bvuy56rbfles39x

Just threw together a semi-interactive Lab-Lib excel swing-o-meter, with comments on some of the more notable electorates. Was just gonna use it myself for whenever election day comes, but I may as well post it here as well!

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You must be logged in to read this quote.

SPILL SPILL SPILL!

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http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/liberal-partys-best-bet-switch-to-turnbull-20130715-2q01y.html

...it begins.

I'm hearing Rudd is NOW leaning towards August 31... not much else one can do but wait.

If this gains any momentum, Rudd'll surely nip it in the bud and go to the GG, right?

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It's bad morals and bad policy, but it's good politics and that's what matters to politicians this close to an election.