Ontario 2018 election

[Holmes]

On top of that, I think Wynne is very abrasive and just rubs people the wrong way. She some across as very haughty and condescending and finger waving.

Which is all basically code for sexist double standards.

I'll agree with what you said, but not in the context of Wynne.

[Holmes]

I'm just a little worried for Gilles.  In the last election, in the transposed election results for just the city of Timmins (which is the new riding) from the 2014 election are as follow (from ElectionsPredictions/Kyle Hutton):

LIB    20.49%
PC     31.34%
NDP   45.98%
Green  1.97%

With a stronger PC candidate, higher PC polling, and the total angst against the Liberals in the North, it can be close.

Nah. Take my word for it. PCs have a high floor in Timmins but it's not enough to actually win without a divided NDP/Liberal vote, which there won't be.

[Holmes]

Now is the NDP's chance!

Maybe.

Nah...

[Holmes]

Just curious, does Vic Fedeli speak French?  North Bay is probably the least French region of North-Eastern Ontario.

French is not essential to be Premier of Ontario.

North Bay does has a sizable Francophone population, especially in the countryside around it. Corbeil (where the Dion quintuplets are from), Bonfield and Sturgeon Falls are all fairly Francophone. South of Lake Nipissing (I guess some would consider that Central Ontario) is very Anglo though.

Anything south of North Bay is not Northern Ontario. It's that easy.

I wanted to die whenever I heard people say they loved to go camping in the Northern Ontario area of Muskoka.

[Holmes]

Lord above, I hate Tony Clement.

[Holmes]

Brown is running.

Wait...

[Holmes]

The 20% for other in Northern Ontario in that poll likely includes the Northern Ontario Party.

Who would even vote for them? Aside from my dad.

[Holmes]

DOUG FORD SHIADELAAMOWLWMQ

[Holmes]

The province is going to sh**t

[Holmes]

Ontario Election 2018 is now a three way race instead of a coronation of the PCs.


LET'S GO NDP!

Eh. I think this just confirms the OLP as third party status. Real question is PC majority or minority.

[Holmes]

My mom, who I consider to be the quintessential Ontario swing voter, told me she won't be voting PC, but on the subject of Doug Ford, "at least he's not Kathleen Wynne."

[Holmes]

A guy who started making seats projections for Quebec politics has started to use his model for Ontario politics.

http://ontario.qc125.com/

At the moment it has 75 PC seats, 26 OLP, 23 ONDP.

Timmins is a stupid city but it's not voting PC, especially against Bisson.

[Holmes]

Is it just me or has Election Prediction Project really jumped the shark (thanks to the idiocy of "Not Non-Partisan" and "jeff316")?

I had a look. The jeff guy said Doug Ford seals Timmins for the PCs. Lol.

[Holmes]

The NDP surge is really exciting. I'm looking forward to the maps. Not looking forward to a PC government but Ontario always has horrible governments, so it is what it is.

[Holmes]

This feels like in 2011 trying to figure out what seats the NDP were going to win in Quebec (tuns out, most of them).

Or Alberta in 2015.

It was pretty obvious how the NDP would get a majority in Alberta 2015.

[Holmes]

^ Parry Sound-Muskoka is considered Northern Ontario though (to the chagrin of many!)

Like yours truly.

[Holmes]

Well, it's Forum. But it would be insane if they actually ended up nailing it.

[Holmes]

Ford has no appeal in Northern Ontario, no.

[Holmes]

No result from Essex until 9:20PM, from Simcoe North and Bay of Quinte until 9:25PM and from York-Simcoe before 11:25PM due to various polling station being closed.

Annoying, but Bay of Quinte is the only interesting one of this batch.