What a dumpster fire of a thread. How are people seriously making the argument that most people moving into Texas are conservatives? That is blatantly false when you look at the growing regions of the state: every county with a booming population has zoomed left over the past decade.
It's an exit poll so take it with a grain of salt, but the conservative expat narrative isn't totally baseless. If transplants are whiter and older than 'natives' and 'native' millennial whites aren't voting GOP at the ultra high rates of their boomer parents, it isn't that far out there to think transplants are a bit to the right of born and raised Texans.
I suspect in TX as well as NC and GA to some extent, it is not necessarily the people moving to Texas but their kids who are shifting the state. 1st gens count as 'born in Texas' in these polls.
Anyway, I think the rustbelt is the future of the GOP. Right populism worked and it clearly would've worked again if the panfemic hadn't spoiled things. The three critical states shifted away from the national average. I think this process will continue, and Dems offset it with sunbelt gains. Bigger changes like the mid-atlantic and the gulf coast are more long term and hard to guage.
