Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Orwell]

How many of these registered Dems are demosaurs who never bothered to change their registration?

Zero.  Georgia does not have party registration.

God I'm a moron. Somehow I transposed white/black into R/D.

I mean racial polarization in the South is so strong that it's basically the same thing

I've heard people say that in Mississippi you don't even need to count the votes, just count people as they walk into the polling booths.

I think I saw something that if Mississippi whites voted like even Wisconsin or Iowa whites did, it would be a blue state.

Why the "even"? Upper midwest whites vote more D than most of the country - they were second after New England until recent years when they fell behind the west coast.

Recent years? I'd say the west coast was more Democratic than the midwest, remember Ohio and Indiana along with parts of Kentucky by 2000 at the earliest.

I said upper midwest, not midwest. Most would classify MN/WI/MI and parts of IA as upper midwest.

In 2004, the only states Kerry won whites according to most exit polls were the New England states, MN, one of OR/WA and HI if I recall correctly.  IA/WI and the other OR/WA state were tied (and certainly within margins of exit polls). CA and NY weren't really as close as people might expect. CA whites shifted a lot in the Obama years, but parts of the upper midwest are still better for Ds.

(Picture deleted by mod because it was too wide for the page.  Feel free to repost it at a smaller width.)

The Dakotas are both apart of the upper midwest

[Adam Griffin]

I mean racial polarization in the South is so strong that it's basically the same thing

I've heard people say that in Mississippi you don't even need to count the votes, just count people as they walk into the polling booths.

I think I saw something that if Mississippi whites voted like even Wisconsin or Iowa whites did, it would be a blue state.

If Mississippi whites voted like Georgia Whites it would be a likely Democratic state depending on the black turnout obviously.

If Mississippi whites voted like those of WI or IA, it would be competing for the most Democratic state in the nation.

Mandatory age chasm update (since it's been years since my last one):

2018 - Wicker (R) vs Baria (D)
18-49 (39%): 50.59 R - 47.69 D (R+2.90)
50 up (61%): 64.95 R - 33.05 D (R+31.90)

2018 - Hyde-Smith/McDaniel (R) vs Espy/Bartee (D)
18-49 (39%): 50.54 D - 49.05 R (D+1.49)
50 up (61%): 62.54 R - 37.46 D (R+25.08)

[Matty]

This is a pathetic answer by Abrams.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JJHunt10/status/1586863576899264513

[Rookie Yinzer]

This is a pathetic answer by Abrams.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JJHunt10/status/1586863576899264513

The amount of officers in Georgia who have been caught on tape and social media spouting racial epithets doesn’t make this too far from reality and did you just sleep through the whole Ahmaud Arbery situation? I’m glad you’re able to pretend this is just hyperbole, for many people it’s real life.

[ProgressiveModerate]

To me it seems like Abrams believes she can win with purely strong turnout amongst the black community and white liberals when practically the numbers just aren't there.

This kinda makes sense though since as an organizer, she was very effective and often seen as the reason Biden carried GA in 2020. But Biden won on a combination of BOTH strong black turnout and appeal to swing voters, specifically in many whiter suburbs in the northern parts of Atlanta where he saw like 20 point swings in his favour.

[Ferguson97]

Extremely silly to deny that white southern police officers might have a teensy bit of a racism problem.

[Adam Griffin]

Speaking as a Georgian who lives in a 70% R county - and who still has a Democratic Sheriff - what she said isn't hard to believe. Probably 130+ counties are either beholden to a GOP Sheriff who espouses all the modern-day partisan behaviors and talking points, or are represented by a longstanding Democratic Sheriff who more or less does the same. Only the most urban, black and/or Democratic-partisan counties have someone elected who even slightly acts alternatively.

[Adam Griffin]

Day 14 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 26,314 voters cast ballots Sunday, for a grand total of 1,660,633 votes.

Breakdown of Sunday's voters:

Code:

11417 	White	43.39%
9741 	Black	37.02%
1207         Asian	4.59%
801    	Latino	3.04%
3148 	Other	11.96%

15183	Female	57.70%
10991 	Male	        41.77%	
140          Other         0.53%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

952071	White	57.33%
499804	Black	30.10%
28528	Asian	1.72%
27234       Latino	1.64%
152996	Other	9.21%

915084	Female	55.10%
742132	Male	        44.69%	
3417	        Other	0.21%

S[inks]ttiest Sunday in modern times for Democrats - though this is the first cycle where we had a decent chunk of black counties hosting more than 1 Sunday of EV:

[Adam Griffin]

Day 15 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 149,794 voters cast ballots Monday, for a grand total of 1,810,427 votes.

Looking like the black vote has been sufficiently cannibalized at this point.

Breakdown of Monday's voters:

Code:

90075 	White	60.13%
39004 	Black	26.04%
2915         Asian	1.95%
2858    	Latino	1.91%
14942 	Other	9.97%

80922	Female	54.02%
68491 	Male	        45.72%	
381          Other         0.26%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

1042146	White	57.56%
538808	Black	29.76%
31443	Asian	1.74%
30092       Latino	1.66%
167938	Other	9.28%

996006	Female	55.01%
810623	Male	        44.78%	
3798	        Other	0.21%

[Agafin]

Day 15 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 149,794 voters cast ballots Monday, for a grand total of 1,810,427 votes.

Looking like the black vote has been sufficiently cannibalized at this point.

Breakdown of Monday's voters:

Code:

90075 	White	60.13%
39004 	Black	26.04%
2915         Asian	1.95%
2858    	Latino	1.91%
14942 	Other	9.97%

80922	Female	54.02%
68491 	Male	        45.72%	
381          Other         0.26%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

1042146	White	57.56%
538808	Black	29.76%
31443	Asian	1.74%
30092       Latino	1.66%
167938	Other	9.28%

996006	Female	55.01%
810623	Male	        44.78%	
3798	        Other	0.21%

How does it compare with 2018/2020? I feel like the black share is dropping a little too fast for the D's chances.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How many of these registered Dems are demosaurs who never bothered to change their registration?

Zero.  Georgia does not have party registration.

God I'm a moron. Somehow I transposed white/black into R/D.

I mean racial polarization in the South is so strong that it's basically the same thing

I've heard people say that in Mississippi you don't even need to count the votes, just count people as they walk into the polling booths.

I think I saw something that if Mississippi whites voted like even Wisconsin or Iowa whites did, it would be a blue state.

Just Wisconsin or Iowa? If Biden did as well amongst whites in Mississippi as he did amongst whites in West Virginia he would've won Mississippi.

If he did as well as whites in Wisconsin or Iowa it would have voted to the left of Maryland.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

How many of these registered Dems are demosaurs who never bothered to change their registration?

Zero.  Georgia does not have party registration.

God I'm a moron. Somehow I transposed white/black into R/D.

I mean racial polarization in the South is so strong that it's basically the same thing

I've heard people say that in Mississippi you don't even need to count the votes, just count people as they walk into the polling booths.

I think I saw something that if Mississippi whites voted like even Wisconsin or Iowa whites did, it would be a blue state.

Just Wisconsin or Iowa? If Biden did as well amongst whites in Mississippi as he did amongst whites in West Virginia he would've won Mississippi.

If he did as well as whites in Wisconsin or Iowa it would have voted to the left of Maryland.

Even the West Virginia numbers still put MS around 55% to 60% Dem in the high black turnout model.

Georgia whites is just about tipping point 47% to 52% depending on turnout.

[Adam Griffin]

I've heard people say that in Mississippi you don't even need to count the votes, just count people as they walk into the polling booths.

I think I saw something that if Mississippi whites voted like even Wisconsin or Iowa whites did, it would be a blue state.

Just Wisconsin or Iowa? If Biden did as well amongst whites in Mississippi as he did amongst whites in West Virginia he would've won Mississippi.

If he did as well as whites in Wisconsin or Iowa it would have voted to the left of Maryland.

Even the West Virginia numbers still put MS around 55% to 60% Dem in the high black turnout model.

Georgia whites is just about tipping point 47% to 52% depending on turnout.

The simplest pathway likely involves whites voting 25% D at 61 percent of the electorate & blacks voting 93% D at 35 percent of the electorate. From there, you just need 55% of what remains to hit the magic 50.

White: 15.25
Black: 32.55
Other: 2.20
Total: 50.00

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1587594329325031425

[Adam Griffin]

Initially, it looked as if Georgia could bank anywhere from 2.8m to 3.0m early votes. I'm significantly revising that figure downward. Even if we banked an average of 200k in-person votes per day for the rest of the week and saw every single outstanding mail ballot as of Monday (104k) returned, we would just barely hit 2.7m.

My new estimate is 2.5m to 2.6m. Whether this means a larger ED vote than I initially projected (1.2m to 1.4m) is unclear. Perhaps we are on track for 2018-level turnout rather than 2021 runoff-level turnout.

[Adam Griffin]

Day 16 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 136,848 voters cast ballots Tuesday, for a grand total of 1,947,275 votes.

Breakdown of Tuesday's voters:

Code:

83044 	White	60.68%
34561 	Black	25.26%
2915         Asian	2.13%
2711    	Latino	1.98%
13617 	Other	9.95%

76623	Female	55.99%
59821 	Male	        43.71%	
404          Other         0.30%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

1125190	White	57.78%
573369	Black	29.44%
34358	Asian	1.76%
32803       Latino	1.68%
181555	Other	9.34%

1072629	Female	55.08%
870444	Male	        44.70%	
4202	        Other	0.22%

[Adam Griffin]

Day 17 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 145,009 voters cast ballots Wednesday, for a grand total of 2,092,284 votes.

Fairly decent improvement for Democrats along racial and gender lines in Wednesday's batch compared to the past few days. Largest weekday black vote share since Day 11; smallest weekday white vote share since Day 5.  

Worth noting that in-person turnout was approximately 125k, which means we saw roughly 20k ABMs returned on Wednesday. A total of 194,059 ABMs have been received, with approximately another 65k outstanding. That's a pretty good return rate at this point in the game by Georgia standards.

Perhaps we are going to see the final week's uptick in black share after all...

Breakdown of Wednesday's voters:

Code:

85521 	White	58.98%
37961 	Black	26.18%
3241         Asian	2.24%
3308    	Latino	2.28%
14978 	Other	10.32%

82818	Female	57.11%
61724 	Male	        42.57%	
467          Other         0.32%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

1210711	White	57.87%
611330	Black	29.22%
37599	Asian	1.80%
36111       Latino	1.73%
196533	Other	9.38%

1155447	Female	55.22%
932168	Male	        44.55%	
4669	        Other	0.23%

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1588196979061956608

Good article, worth a read.

[One Term Floridian]

Starting to have a terrible feeling Wanker is going to avoid a run-off with like 50.2% of the vote. The Kemp coattails are definitely going to help him to a degree. That's the fear I have right now. This is not exactly a state known for its heavy ticket-splitting.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Starting to have a terrible feeling Wanker is going to avoid a run-off with like 50.2% of the vote. The Kemp coattails are definitely going to help him to a degree. That's the fear I have right now. This is not exactly a state known for its heavy ticket-splitting.

Lowkey random but it is possible to create a congressional district that voted for Warnock-Perdue in the election runoffs, about 5,000 votes split their ticket that way in this hypothetical seat, or 1% difference.

It’s small but not unrealistic to assume Kemp wins and Walker fails to make 50

[One Term Floridian]

Starting to have a terrible feeling Wanker is going to avoid a run-off with like 50.2% of the vote. The Kemp coattails are definitely going to help him to a degree. That's the fear I have right now. This is not exactly a state known for its heavy ticket-splitting.

Lowkey random but it is possible to create a congressional district that voted for Warnock-Perdue in the election runoffs, about 5,000 votes split their ticket that way in this hypothetical seat, or 1% difference.

It’s small but not unrealistic to assume Kemp wins and Walker fails to make 50

I imagine this is a district that includes the ATL suburbs/exurbs? Sure, but Warcock outperformed Assoff by a little over 0.5% in the 2021 run-off. The polls have Hemp utterly trouncing Abrams by at least mid-single digits if not close to 10%. Wanker can afford to lose quite a bit of ground and still win with the state's polarization alone.

*Apologies for using humor as a coping mechanism rn: by replacing a single letter in Warnock/Ossoff/Kemp/Walker to bring some hilarious results*

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Starting to have a terrible feeling Wanker is going to avoid a run-off with like 50.2% of the vote. The Kemp coattails are definitely going to help him to a degree. That's the fear I have right now. This is not exactly a state known for its heavy ticket-splitting.

Lowkey random but it is possible to create a congressional district that voted for Warnock-Perdue in the election runoffs, about 5,000 votes split their ticket that way in this hypothetical seat, or 1% difference.

It’s small but not unrealistic to assume Kemp wins and Walker fails to make 50

I imagine this is a district that includes the ATL suburbs/exurbs? Sure, but Warcock outperformed Assoff by a little over 0.5% in the 2021 run-off. The polls have Hemp utterly trouncing Abrams by at least mid-single digits if not close to 10%. Wanker can afford to lose quite a bit of ground and still win with the state's polarization alone.

*Apologies for using humor as a coping mechanism rn: by replacing a single letter in Warnock/Ossoff/Kemp/Walker to bring some hilarious results*

It sorta is, it’s basically all of Northern Fulton, some of Gwinnett, and the city of Kennesaw.

Also if it’s any comfort Governor performance and senate performance have low correlation compared to most races

[One Term Floridian]

Starting to have a terrible feeling Wanker is going to avoid a run-off with like 50.2% of the vote. The Kemp coattails are definitely going to help him to a degree. That's the fear I have right now. This is not exactly a state known for its heavy ticket-splitting.

Lowkey random but it is possible to create a congressional district that voted for Warnock-Perdue in the election runoffs, about 5,000 votes split their ticket that way in this hypothetical seat, or 1% difference.

It’s small but not unrealistic to assume Kemp wins and Walker fails to make 50

I imagine this is a district that includes the ATL suburbs/exurbs? Sure, but Warcock outperformed Assoff by a little over 0.5% in the 2021 run-off. The polls have Hemp utterly trouncing Abrams by at least mid-single digits if not close to 10%. Wanker can afford to lose quite a bit of ground and still win with the state's polarization alone.

*Apologies for using humor as a coping mechanism rn: by replacing a single letter in Warnock/Ossoff/Kemp/Walker to bring some hilarious results*

It sorta is, it’s basically all of Northern Fulton, some of Gwinnett, and the city of Kennesaw.

Also if it’s any comfort Governor performance and senate performance have low correlation compared to most races

Not really in GA. The last time both were on the ballot in 2014, only ~0.1% separated the D margins in Gov & Sen. Now don't get me wrong there is going to be more of a split this year owing to Wanker's unique weaknesses as a candidate but it's unlikely to be significantly more than 3% or so... and I am starting to think that's not going to be enough.

[Adam Griffin]

Day 18 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 168,894 voters cast ballots Thursday, for a grand total of 2,261,178 votes.

Continued positive indicators for Democrats: today's black share up from yesterday's by more than a point, while white vote share was down by almost two points. The overall EV electorate only became 0.02 points whiter than it was as of yesterday (57.87% to 57.89%).

Breakdown of Thursday's voters:

Code:

96687 	White	57.25%
46113 	Black	27.30%
3869         Asian	2.29%
4293    	Latino	2.54%
17932 	Other	10.62%

96751	Female	57.29%
71520 	Male	        42.35%	
623          Other         0.36%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

1307398	White	57.89%
657443	Black	29.08%
41468	Asian	1.83%
40404       Latino	1.79%
214465	Other	9.41%

1252198	Female	55.38%
1003688	Male	        44.39%	
5292	        Other	0.23%

[skbl17]

David Ralston will not run for another term as Speaker in the state house:

https://twitter.com/rahulbali/status/1588567375065976832