Ontario 2018 election

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Pre Christmas Ipsos-reed poll; Brown up 8 while the NDP and governing liberals are tied for Second.

PC 36% (-3)
Liberal 28% (-4)
NDP 28% (+6)

Kathleen Wynne approval rating is just 26% in this poll.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/ontario-pcs-hanging-on-lead

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Do you think Kathleen Wynne would be tempted to call a snap election in hope that the controversies around Brown and before the PC potently get a new leader.   

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Brown has resigned as leader will stay on as MPP
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.thestar.com/amp/news/queenspark/2018/01/24/tory-leader-patrick-brown-denies-allegations-of-misconduct.html

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Sounds like their is some talk that pc executives might cancel the leadership convention allowing Fedeli to lead the party during the general election. I have a feeling such a move could backfire as some voters will see such a move as anti democratic potentially depressing PC turnout and pushing swing voters into the NDP and or Liberal column.

http://torontosun.com/news/local-news/furey-pc-insiders-tried-to-keep-ford-out-and-now-hes-storming-the-barricades#comments

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Not sure how accurate this seat projection model is but it seems the PC vote is very inefficient. The PC would need a lead over the liberals of about 7% just to win the most seats and a 12% or so  lead to win a majority.

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Apparently their is a delay in results as lawyers for both Christine Elliott and Doug Ford are locked in a room reviewing what has been described as some sort of technical difficulty. I have also heard reports that results are very very close at the moment. I can't imagine this is what the PC Party wanted to have happen at all.

https://twitter.com/politicsfisher/status/972571130463535104?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

https://twitter.com/intent/user?screen_name=CBCQueensPark&original_referer=http://embed.scribblelive.com/Embed/v7.aspx?Id=2757218&ThemeId=30969

[Pragmatic Conservative]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-progressive-conservatives-pcs-new-leader-election-1.4571014

So this may take some time to resolve. At this point if Elliott wins I can imagine some members will believe the race was stolen which could depress Conservative turnout in June.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/tanya-granic-allen-no-longer-an-ontario-pc-party-candidate-doug-ford-says-1.4650360

Tanya Granic Allen will no longer be a PC party candidate. She was previously running in Mississauga Centre.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

I got 74% liberal, 67% Green, 63% NDP and 52% PC

https://votecompass.cbc.ca/ontario/results/?s=5ba1c4e480e23eae22bfad10c738ab80203b624a1525915310

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Their is a leaders debate tomorrow in Parry Sound on Northern policies. 

https://www.parrysound.com/news-story/8592643-wynne-ford-and-horwath-debate-in-parry-sound-friday/

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Nanos is out and while they show the NDP in third, they do show them rising and on best premier pay attention there.  PCs still well in front off course, but it seems they are down to low 40s instead of mid 40s.

PC 41%
Liberal 28%
NDP 24%

Liberals should be at 29% not 28%

Link: http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/ON-Political-Package-DRAFT.pdf

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Miles, are the Liberals actually still acting like they still might win this thing?

At least publicly they are. I suspect deep down they all know they are done.

Well I doubt any major party would ever concede an election publicly or admit their not going to win before polls close. Conceding before hand would risk suppressing your parties turnout making the result for your party worse then it could potentially end up being.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

https://twitter.com/innovativerg?lang=en

I can't find the data, but its linked in their TWitter above, Innovative REsearch Group poll:

PC - 35%
NDP - 31%
OLP - 27%

I find those OLP numbers high? but the graph shows a major downward trend.

From the last poll
PC -3
NDP +3
Liberal -1

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Union-commissioned 416 poll shows Grits holding only Toronto Centre and St. Paul's. In related news, Kinsella spotted Tim Murphy golfing in California. SAD!

The poll isn't as good for the NDP as claimed. The NDP really need to be winning places like Humber River-Black Creek, Toronto Centre, Scarborough Southwest, Scarborough Centre and Scarborough-Rouge Park if they're going to be competing for government.

(Also, the poll has the Liberals also holding Eglinton-Lawrence, albeit narrowly, and tied with the NDP in University-Rosedale.)

PC are ahead 43-21-21(PC/Lib/NDP) in Etobicoke North and 43-31-19 (PC/Lib/NDP) in Don Valley West.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Mitzi Hunter is at 0% support in Scarborough-Guildwood.  Not lookin' good for her.

The sample was only 38 voters for that riding so I wouldn’t read too much into that poll result.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Just for a baseline, these are the 2014 Ontario election results:

Liberals: 37.65
P.C: 35.45
NDP:22.74

(I would have liked 22.75 for the symmetry.)

Looks more like 2011 results.

Oops.  Oh wait, that was just the warm-up for the 2014 results to provide greater context. 


2014 results
Liberal: 38.65%
P.C: 31.25
NDP: 23.75

(Symmetry!)

What caused the major difference in Liberal vote efficiency from 2011 and 2014?
In 2011 the liberals won the PV by 2.2% but missed getting a majority by 1 seat whereas in 2014 the liberals won the PV by 7.4% and only won a 4 seat majority.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Just for a baseline, these are the 2014 Ontario election results:

Liberals: 37.65
P.C: 35.45
NDP:22.74

(I would have liked 22.75 for the symmetry.)

Looks more like 2011 results.

Oops.  Oh wait, that was just the warm-up for the 2014 results to provide greater context. 


2014 results
Liberal: 38.65%
P.C: 31.25
NDP: 23.75

(Symmetry!)

What caused the major difference in Liberal vote efficiency from 2011 and 2014?
In 2011 the liberals won the PV by 2.2% but missed getting a majority by 1 seat whereas in 2014 the liberals won the PV by 7.4% and only won a 4 seat majority.

Hrm, never thought about it that way before.  The Liberals did gain 5 seats (out of 107 ridings.) What would you have expected?

Based on past results probably a 10-12 seat majority.
Under the old map Federally in 2006 the liberals won a 2 seat majority in Ontario whole losing the Ontario PV by 2. Federally in 2015 the Liberals won the Ontario PV by 9 while winning a 39 seat majority. You could say the major factor is increased NDP support but the NDP only increased their PV support by 1.1% from 2011 to 2014.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Quito Maggi from Mainstreet tweeted despite close numbers, the firm has 67 seats PC, 47 seats NDP, 7 seats Liberals, and 1 seat Greens.  Likewise Advanced Symbolics which is an AI firm that correctly predicted Brexit and Trump's win has popular vote at 37.2% PC, 36.5% NDP, and 21.4% Liberal while seat count at 73 PC, 50 NDP, 1 Liberal and due to the NDP running up the margins that is why PCs would still win a majority.  However there are 14 seats the NDP can pick up but they have to take from Tory voters as taking 5% of current Tory voters would do the trick of 65 NDP to 57 PC while 5% from Liberals would not being 68 PC to 56 NDP.  Off course things can and will change before election date, but I wonder if Doug Ford will like Trump and like in the leadership race lose the popular vote but still win the election.  If that happens I think that will make the NDP argument for changing the electoral system that much stronger when they do form government.

1 Liberal ?  !!!!!

No he said 7 liberals and one Green Party member.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Innovative Research
PC 36%(+1)
NDP 31% (-)
Liberal 26% (-1)

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/IRG36-Tracking-pre-test-Wave-2-.pdf

[Pragmatic Conservative]

One thing I have been wondering about is if the Liberals would be doing better with a different leader. While I imagine the OLP would still be trailing I would imagine they would probably be around 28% or so and might have an ok shot of re-election.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

If anyone is interested I calculated the Toronto regional results from 2011 Federally on the current map and got:

Liberal 34.84%
Conservative 31.09%
 NDP 30.38%
Green 3.18%
Other 0.51%

With the Liberals possibly falling in third in Toronto it’s going to be tough for them to hold on to several of their current seats.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1--o2KlbsZxgMCjJV5bxZmY4CvvaYUTJbBnkyrjy5FjE

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Horwath did reasonably well (but tapered off a bit) but I don't she got that final knockdown of the Liberals that would send them spiralling into Manitoba Liberal territory or anything.

If anything, quite the reverse happened. Like I said, I have to think about it, but my gut is telling me that we are back to 15-20 Liberal seats.

KW was regarded by several people as not having a strong debate performance  in 2014 yet still won a majority government so I’m not sure how much of a difference.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Ipsos: 37/34/22.

From last poll
NDP -3 Conservative +1 Liberal -1 Other (includes Greens) +3

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Can someone provide these riding polls?

They're encouraging if you're a Conservative.

PCs leading in the DVE and DVN, blowout in Mississauga-Lakeshore.

Even Brampton only looks OK from an NDP point of view.  West and North they're neck in neck with the PCs, South PCs are leading.

The NDP is well ahead in Kingston - but that was never going PC anyway.

Sousa is losing...in a blowout? There goes one of my predictions !

me too... so much fo Hazel's endorsement there.

Ahhh, any links!? details man! Any Southwest seats? SpaFY? UniRose? TorCen?

Riding polls are included as part of Mainstreet daily tracker and thus are pay walled. Mainstreet is releasing a public poll later today so they may include a few riding polls in that.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/1001267471775494146

OLP getting post debate bump at expense of the NDP

Some of that could just be convergence as Mainstreet had the OLP lower then other pollsters.