Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, it's not my New Democratic Party of 2011 anymore. That was peak NDP and now we're back to full on "shoot self in the foot for the sake of it" mode. At least Horvath isn't horrible, I'll continue to support her and the provincial party, but at least I won't have to live under Premier Brown.

I hardly consider peak NDP being at the point when the Liberals are to the left of you.

Cool, but living under an NDP opposition was the only good thing about a Conservative majority at the time, and they were a damn good opposition under competent leadership. I don't give a damn about some poor stupid delegates thinking that the party doesn't seem to be left-wing enough for them. They've only put another obstacle in the NDP's long road out of obscurity.

Being a rhetorical carbon copy of the Liberals is a sure fire way to obscurity though. It's unfortunate, but the Libs have triangulated, and the NDP needs to distance themselves. It's not going to get them power, but it will save them from being wiped out.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, it's not my New Democratic Party of 2011 anymore. That was peak NDP and now we're back to full on "shoot self in the foot for the sake of it" mode. At least Horvath isn't horrible, I'll continue to support her and the provincial party, but at least I won't have to live under Premier Brown.

I hardly consider peak NDP being at the point when the Liberals are to the left of you.

Cool, but living under an NDP opposition was the only good thing about a Conservative majority at the time, and they were a damn good opposition under competent leadership. I don't give a damn about some poor stupid delegates thinking that the party doesn't seem to be left-wing enough for them. They've only put another obstacle in the NDP's long road out of obscurity.

Being a rhetorical carbon copy of the Liberals is a sure fire way to obscurity though. It's unfortunate, but the Libs have triangulated, and the NDP needs to distance themselves. It's not going to get them power, but it will save them from being wiped out.

The NDP wasn't a carbon copy of the Liberals. They were much more fiscally responsible, well-versed in policy, and serious about governing. Which is why Trudeau won.

Those differences were glossed over by most voters though.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder whether the Tory majority of 2011 and especially its Ontario results was really just down to the Liberals having a spectacularly bad leader.

This was very much part of it, yes. Maybe even the biggest part.

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Still in the works as far as I know.

[Hatman 🍁]

Harper wasn't from Quebec and he won seats in Quebec. The NDP needs to focus on holding on to the more left wing ridings, like Rosemont and Laurier-Ste. Marie, in the same way the Tories are strong in the Chaudiere-Appalaches.

[Hatman 🍁]

If Canada was warmer than the US instead of colder I would probably be looking into dual citizenship

It's called a coat.

[Hatman 🍁]

If Canada was warmer than the US instead of colder I would probably be looking into dual citizenship

It's called a coat.

I'm talking about sunshine and being able to sunbathe on a hammock in your backyard and never deal with shoveling snow or driving in snow

You know, it does get hot here too.

As for the snow, yeah, you live in New England. It's not much worse in Canada. Plus, we have Vancouver.

[Hatman 🍁]

So the Libs in Newfoundland are planning to shut down half of the province's libraries and are putting a tax on books. Lord tunderin' jesus b'y.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh, there's a few rumours going around that Stephen McNeil is going to call a snap election this spring. Nova Scotia loves to speculate on this topic with every premier because John Buchanan won back to back re-elections off of snap elections in the 1980's. I personally doubt McNeil calls an election.

Calling elections 2 1/2 years after the last election never ends well for the government.

[Hatman 🍁]

Former NDP MP Ian Deans (and ex-husband of Ottawa city councillor Diane Deans) has died. RIP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Alberta has requested federal assistance, 48 hours till the Army and Air Force arrive.

Wynne says 2 of her MPPs were linked to sexual harassment.

Forum-ON: 39/34.

Don't post Ontario polls unless you're going to report the NDP as well! (most of us are NDPers here...)

Full #s:

PC: 39 (-1)
OLP: 34 (+4)
NDP: 21 (-3)
GPO: 5 (n/c)

[Hatman 🍁]

Didn't see it in the article.

Yeah, I know (shame on them), but Forum had the crosstabs on their site.

[Hatman 🍁]

There's no reason why Alberta shouldn't have two right wing parties. No need to go back to decades of one party rule.

Speaking of Alberta, considering Notley has done a super job handling the Fort Mac fire, I wonder if this might just save the NDP in the province.

[Hatman 🍁]

The government is putting forward the motion to strike the special committee on electoral reform today. The committee will have 10 members, 6 Libs, 3 Cons and 1 NDP, plus one Bloc and one Green (Elizabeth May) will sit on the committee but won't be able to vote.

Of course, the Liberals having a majority on the committee is highly ironic.  I doubt they will try to push something through unilaterally though.

In addition to electoral reform, they will also be discussing online voting (what a recipe for disaster that would be) and mandatory voting. 

[Hatman 🍁]

New BC Poll, BC Liberals leading with strong support from Millennials BC Liberals 42/NDP 36/Conservatives 11/Green 10

LOL. Junk poll! Does anyone remember how badly Ipsos screwed up in Ontario?

[Hatman 🍁]

New BC Poll, BC Liberals leading with strong support from Millennials BC Liberals 42/NDP 36/Conservatives 11/Green 10

LOL. Junk poll! Does anyone remember how badly Ipsos screwed up in Ontario?

At this point, ~ one year out from the 2013 BC election, Ipsos-Reid had the BC NDP leading by an astounding 19%!

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5659

As for Ipsos-Reid during the 2014 ON election, their last opinion poll pegged the ONDP at 30% - actual was 23.8%.

My main point? Ipsos-Reid and other opt-in online panel pollsters always overestimate the NDP vote. Both Ipsos-Reid and Angus-Reid (also opt-in online) had similar 8%-9% BC NDP leads in their last day polls the day prior to the May, 2013 BC election.

Opt-in online and IVR are just cheap polling junk. Give me a "gold-standard" CATI poll any day of the week.

If opt-in panels always over estimate the NDP, then why does ipsos have the NDP lower than any of the other pollsters? Hmmm?

[Hatman 🍁]

If opt-in panels always over estimate the NDP, then why does ipsos have the NDP lower than any of the other pollsters? Hmmm?

Haha. What other pollsters? BTW... I do know my stuff. So have at 'er!

Howabout the Insights West poll that was posted on this very thread on the previous page? Howabout every other poll published since January 2014?

[Hatman 🍁]

I disagree with that assessment. The Liberals would prefer it of course, but no other party would back them on it, so it would look bad if they pushed for a system that only they support.

What is most likely to happen is not much. The Liberals won't pursue IRV without another party supporting, so they will drop the issue, as most other systems would require boundary changes (see my thread) or increasing the size of parliament, and they would not likely do that. My worst fear is that the only reform they go with, which is the worst possible "reform", is to adopt online voting.

[Hatman 🍁]

My worst fear is that the only reform they go with, which is the worst possible "reform", is to adopt online voting.

May I ask why you are so opposed to the idea? Do you think it's going to be compromised or something?

Yeah, it's always a possibility. This is a good video that explains why it's a bad idea: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3_0x6oaDmI

[Hatman 🍁]

good policy, but very unpopular.

[Hatman 🍁]

The several municipalities in Pictou County (Peter MacKay's home county), with a combined population of 45k have rejected amalgamation in a referendum.

Hatman is likely pleased. I am not

Woohoo! You have to admit, it has gotten pretty ridiculous in Nova Scotia. Pretty soon the whole province will be one municipality!

[Hatman 🍁]

New Glasgow supported the merger, but the other three municipalities did not. The Town of Pictou was very divided, the western ward supported it 54-46 but the eastern ward did not (58% no).  Results: http://munpict.ca/images/elections_images/may28_2016results.pdf

[Hatman 🍁]

Speculation is that he got drunk at the Liberal convention and was inappropriately hitting on a staffer.

Alcohol abuse is unfortunately all to common among the Aboriginal community, even among high profile politicians (as we saw with Saganash). I hope that stories such as these shed a light on this issue. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Speculation is that he got drunk at the Liberal convention and was inappropriately hitting on a staffer.

That's it?

Well, I guess it depends on how inappropriate he was behaving towards said staffer. I'm sure there's zero-tolerance for sexual harassment within the Liberal caucus considering what happened with the two Liberal MPs in the last parliament. 

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals have scrapped their majority on the electoral reform committee and have adopted the NDP plan, which alots seats based on the popular vote: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wherry-electoral-reform-committee-1.3612377

Good move! I told you guys the Liberals weren't going to go it alone on this! Though, I didn't expect them to do this, but hey, why not? They weren't going to push something through on their own anyways, so might as well give themselves a minority (plurality) of seats on the committee.

[Hatman 🍁]

Fildebrandt is a bit of an odd ball. He was in a few of my classes at university, and his politics were very insane.