Australia General Discussion 2.0

[Meclazine for Israel]

We can't call Aboriginal people Aborigine's anymore.

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-17/aboriginal-term-deemed-offensive-births-deaths-marriages/9753430

And police reports in the media in Western Australia are not allowed to identify offenders as aboriginal.

The implementation of the cashless welfare card in rural WA has been deemed racist.

http://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/am/cashless-welfare-card-trial-causing-added-financial-stress/9761712

Apparently, after it's implementation in Kalgoorlie), the cashless card has impacted immediately on the methamphetamine and alcohol market, so my mate Dangerous Dave tells me.

The rural areas of WA are the largest users of meth in Australia, and the welfare card is long overdue. Incest, child suicide and domestic violence are off the chart in many remote 'aboriginal' communities due to alcohol and meth.

[Lachi]

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/court-ruling-a-resounding-defeat-for-the-liberal-party-20180614-p4zlhw.html

Kroger now has control of only 25% of his 70 million dollar investment fund, which essentially means 52.5 million dollars of campaign funding for the Vic Liberals is now gone and cannot be used in the November election campaign.

Considering how cash strapped the Liberals are in Victoria already, and how toxicly unpopular Matthew Guy is, this could end up being a near fatal blow for their campaign, in a year they are already expected to lose in anyway.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/court-ruling-a-resounding-defeat-for-the-liberal-party-20180614-p4zlhw.html

Kroger now has control of only 25% of his 70 million dollar investment fund, which essentially means 52.5 million dollars of campaign funding for the Vic Liberals is now gone and cannot be used in the November election campaign.

Considering how cash strapped the Liberals are in Victoria already, and how toxicly unpopular Matthew Guy is, this could end up being a near fatal blow for their campaign, in a year they are already expected to lose in anyway.

It's not as if we were going to win in the first place. Matthew Guy is damaged goods, however the Victorian branch isn't going to get rid of him this close to the election, as a Leadership Crisis! will only drag us lower down in the polls.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

On the by-election front we've had a good few polls over the last 3 weeks, specifically:
Braddon - ReachTEL (2/6) - 54-46
Longman - ReachTEL (10/5) - 53-47
Longman - ReachTEL (2/6) - 52-48
Mayo - ReachTEL (5/6) - 58-42
Mayo - YouGov−Galaxy (7/6) - 58-42

[Lachi]

On the by-election front we've had a good few polls over the last 3 weeks, specifically:
Braddon - ReachTEL (2/6) - 54-46
Longman - ReachTEL (10/5) - 53-47
Longman - ReachTEL (2/6) - 52-48
Mayo - ReachTEL (5/6) - 58-42
Mayo - YouGov−Galaxy (7/6) - 58-42

Individual seat polling has historically been complete trash anyway.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

On the by-election front we've had a good few polls over the last 3 weeks, specifically:
Braddon - ReachTEL (2/6) - 54-46
Longman - ReachTEL (10/5) - 53-47
Longman - ReachTEL (2/6) - 52-48
Mayo - ReachTEL (5/6) - 58-42
Mayo - YouGov−Galaxy (7/6) - 58-42

Individual seat polling has historically been complete trash anyway.

Most certainly, however terrible polls are better than no polls.

[Lachi]

On the by-election front we've had a good few polls over the last 3 weeks, specifically:
Braddon - ReachTEL (2/6) - 54-46
Longman - ReachTEL (10/5) - 53-47
Longman - ReachTEL (2/6) - 52-48
Mayo - ReachTEL (5/6) - 58-42
Mayo - YouGov−Galaxy (7/6) - 58-42

Individual seat polling has historically been complete trash anyway.

Most certainly, however terrible polls are better than no polls.

true...

[AustralianSwingVoter]

On the by-election front we've had a good few polls over the last 3 weeks, specifically:
Braddon - ReachTEL (2/6) - 54-46
Longman - ReachTEL (10/5) - 53-47
Longman - ReachTEL (2/6) - 52-48
Mayo - ReachTEL (5/6) - 58-42
Mayo - YouGov−Galaxy (7/6) - 58-42

Individual seat polling has historically been complete trash anyway.

Most certainly, however terrible polls are better than no polls.

true...

And even though the Braddon and Longman polls look like complete Horse Manure, the fact that the polls show us leading at all is a good signal that these races will be close, and I could certainly see us picking up both and Mayo sheerly due to the amount of money we're sinking in a quite possibly vain attempt to give us a little bit of margin for dealing with that fat idiot the member for Dawson.

[Lachi]

I don't think Downer will won Mayo though, she's been corrupted through and through working for the IPA, and the voters will see that.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I don't think Downer will won Mayo though, she's been corrupted through and through working for the IPA, and the voters will see that.

Sharkie is running as the "Centre Alliance" candidate, and that will hurt her. Although Xenophon was massively rejected in the state elections, his name still holds a great deal of sway among Croweaters.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I don't think Downer will won Mayo though, she's been corrupted through and through working for the IPA, and the voters will see that.

Sharkie is running as the "Centre Alliance" candidate, and that will hurt her. Although Xenophon was massively rejected in the state elections, his name still holds a great deal of sway among Croweaters.

Just to clarify, I don't think we'll win Mayo, however I can't see us getting below 45 on preferences.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Forgot to post this, but from Antony Green something important to keep in mind about One Nation:
https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenABC/status/1007045007415525376
https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenABC/status/1007150371423150080

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Clive Palmer is back, and god help us all.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/17/clive-palmer-relaunches-pup-as-united-australia-party-and-announces-political-return

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Brian Burston is joining Palmer United 2.0

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Meanwhile our National Conference has given Bill a new scare campaign on a plate: Save the ABC. How are the idiots on our right so stupid.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

New poll for Darling Range:
Darling Range - ReachTEL (14/6) - 54-46

[Lachi]

When there are 8 different parties on the senate crossbench..

[AustralianSwingVoter]

When there are 8 different parties on the senate crossbench..

At least we'll have a good spring cleaning in 2019.

[Lachi]

When there are 8 different parties on the senate crossbench..

At least we'll have a good spring cleaning in 2019.

Probably, especially with a proper democratic voting system in the Senate, givng the voter the choice rather than the parties.

[GoTfan]

Meanwhile our National Conference has given Bill a new scare campaign on a plate: Save the ABC. How are the idiots on our right so stupid.

How much you wanna bet that Shorten is breaking out the champagne?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

When there are 8 different parties on the senate crossbench..

At least we'll have a good spring cleaning in 2019.

Probably, especially with a proper democratic voting system in the Senate, givng the voter the choice rather than the parties.

Mainly because almost every crossbencher term is up in 2019, because they are elected last. With the numbers being:
NSW: All 3 crossbenchers (Burston, Leyonhjelm and Rhiannon) up in 2019.
Qld: Pauline is up in 2022, Anning and Waters are up in 2019.
SA: Bernadi, Griff and Patrick up in 2022, Hanson-Young and Storer are up in 2019.
Tas: Whish-Wilson is up in 2022, McKim and Martin up in 2019.
Vic: Di Natale is up in 2022, Hinch and Rice are up in 2019.
WA: Siewert is up in 2022, Georgiou and Steele-John are up in 2019

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Meanwhile our National Conference has given Bill a new scare campaign on a plate: Save the ABC. How are the idiots on our right so stupid.

How much you wanna bet that Shorten is breaking out the champagne?

I guarantee Labor headquarters had to suddenly bulk buy a lot of Champagne.
Meanwhile in the grassroots, the Followers of He who must not be named, member for Warringah (And my local MP, lucky me!) in the Manly branch are saying that it's all part of their master plan to destabilise Turnbull and bring back He who must not be named.

[Meclazine for Israel]

John Howard?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Abbott must be even dumber than I thought if he thinks he has a shot at returning to power. I guess he thinks the coalition will rhyme with the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd era, but Rudd was brought back because he was genuinely popular (or at least had the capability of being popular) with the electorate, which meant the ALP wanted him to save the furniture even if they hated his guts. With Abbott, he is disliked by both the public and the backbenchers; and really was never particularly great at politics to begin with (three world slogans aside).

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Abbott must be even dumber than I thought if he thinks he has a shot at returning to power. I guess he thinks the coalition will rhyme with the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd era, but Rudd was brought back because he was genuinely popular (or at least had the capability of being popular) with the electorate, which meant the ALP wanted him to save the furniture even if they hated his guts. With Abbott, he is disliked by both the public and the backbenchers; and really was never particularly great at politics to begin with (three world slogans aside).

There's a 50/50 chance that Turnbull makes it to the next election. Really we just want to win a newspoll.
Of the conservatives Abbott thinks he has a chance because who else? Julie is happy as Deputy, even the right doesn't want Andrews, Abetz gives the kids nightmares, the racist potato is losing Dickson anyway and Morrison doesn't have the guts.
If Turnbull makes it to the election it's solely because there's no better option.