What do you feel the most important election of US history is?

[Skill and Chance]

1860 is objectively the correct answer. No other electoral contest has so fully and irrevocably decided the national character.

No that's 1800. 1860 had the most important nominating convention as who the Republicans chose would have a major impact, but the South acting like spoiled brats was inevitable that year.

Is not that nominating convention a part of the election? It's beyond dispute that the South was going to try and break off from the Union in 1861 no matter what.

That assumes that the Republicans win the White House in 1860.  Assume for the moment that Democrats either hadn't had their 2/3 rule or Douglas manages to get nominated in Charleston despite it. The result is a Douglas victory:

Alternatively, assume that Bell isn't kept off the New York ballot, allowing him to split off some of the ex-Whig vote that Lincoln got, handing the State to Douglas:

There are a few other scenarios that lead to the election going to Congress, but the essential thing is that the Senate was solidly Democratic, so given a choice between the running mates of Lincoln and Breckenridge, it would undoubtedly pick Lane over Hamlin.  That leaves the Republicans with the choice of either supporting Douglas in the House or leaving the Presidency vacant because the House was unable to elect a President with an ardently pro-slavery Vice President serving as Acting President.

Roll Call of the States: U.S. House Election for President in 1860 (36th Congress):

I'm uncertain how Tennessee and Delaware would have voted, but I'm fairly certain that Texas and California would have both been split 1-1 between Douglas and Breckenridge.  This assumes of course that the Republicans accept a Douglas presidency as the lesser of two evils, If they don't, then Lane serves as Acting President until at least December 1861 when the 37th Congress takes office.

Your first scenario would just end with a later Civil War with Southern secession whenever a Republican finally won the EC.  The later it happens, of course, the more of a rout it would be for the North due to industrialization.

I think your second scenario would end with Acting President Lane and most of the Republican
delegation walking out of congress.  Then the Lincoln states (and Upstate NY) secede and declare war.  Given their extreme head start in industrialization, they would surely be able to secure independence within a year or two.  If they are willing to fight for 5+ years, they could even invade the rump US and overthrow the federal government, abolishing slavery nationwide during their occupation.  Troops from Upstate NY and New England would have to occupy NYC as a hostile territory throughout, much like the Confederacy in East Tennessee.


Would make a great alt history!

[Skill and Chance]

Tier 1: 1800 (no civil war), 1860, 1932

Tier 2: 1828, 1876, 1896, 1912, 1944, 1964 (ensures permanent end of Jim Crow and collapse of Southern Dem machines)

The chance of 2020 or 2024 making Tier 2 is quite high.  It is tempting to put 2008 or 2016 in Tier 2, but they kind of cancel each other out and American life has continued to be more normal than most people expected after both of them.

[Skill and Chance]

I'd say 1960 was the most important election since WWII (though 1968 and 1992 were close). Had the 1960 election gone the other way, as it easily could have, the political landscape going forward would have been completely different, with the GOP playing more center stage; it is not inconceivable that Shirley Temple Black (R) might have become the first woman President.

1960 is pretty overrated actually.  Kennedy wavered and Johnson ended up doing all of the hard stuff (which he probably does during 1968-72 if Kennedy lives on). 

[Skill and Chance]

1800, 1860, 1864 and 1936 are obvious picks but a shout out really needs to be made for 1844. 1840 too, as it set the pattern for populist campaigning and led to the events of 1844 and after.

Good point.  There's no way the US has anywhere near as good of a 20th century without a West Coast and a Texas oil boom.  For now, it's in Tier 2, but I see 1844 only increasing in importance with time. 

You could make a similar argument for 1944.  If there is ever a large scale nuclear war and civilization survives to write about it, Harry Truman will be a household name in 1000 years.