CT-Tremont: Stewart +2/+10, Boughton -10/+5 against Lamont/Bysiewicz

[The Other Castro]

Erin Stewart - 46%
Ned Lamont - 44%

Erin Stewart - 50%
Susan Bysiewicz - 40%

Ned Lamont leads Mark Boughton by 10

Mark Boughton leads Susan Bysiewicz by 5

Generic Republican - 50%
Generic Democrat - 43%

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http://www.courant.com/politics/capitol-watch/hc-pol-may-governor-poll-tremont-20180506-story.html

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Everyone needs to step aside for Queen Stewart


But knowing Republicans, they will nominate someone who talks about sanctuary cities, building the wall, and defending our elected President.

[_]

>Stewart doing rather well against the top Ds
>Other R losing big against top D

Just like the simulations.

[TheSaint250]

Fantastic

[GlobeSoc]

I have faith in the special character of GOP primary voters to save our governor's seat

[Xing]

Polls have repeatedly shown Democrats in trouble here, but sure, Safe D, if you say so.

[choclatechip45]

Not taking to much stock in this poll. This polling company has been all over the map with this race.

[MT Treasurer]

Yes, if polling is showing Republicans competitive in CT, that totally means that they have at least a 50/50 shot there, just like in 2014. Obviously the fact that this is a Clinton +15 state and most undecideds are likely leaning Democratic doesn’t matter either, duh (it matters in safe D ME, though).

[cvparty]

Yes, if polling is showing Republicans competitive in CT, that totally means that they have at least a 50/50 shot there, just like in 2014. Obviously the fact that this is a Clinton +15 state and most undecideds are likely leaning Democratic doesn’t matter either, duh (it matters in safe D ME, though).

+13 and aren't statewide races more competitive? Malloy only won by 2 points in 2014

[MT Treasurer]

Yes, if polling is showing Republicans competitive in CT, that totally means that they have at least a 50/50 shot there, just like in 2014. Obviously the fact that this is a Clinton +15 state and most undecideds are likely leaning Democratic doesn’t matter either, duh (it matters in safe D ME, though).

+13 and aren't statewide races more competitive? Malloy only won by 2 points in 2014

+14 and Malloy +3

Statewide races are more competitive, yeah, but there’s a limit to the number of Democrats/Clinton supporters who are willing to split their ticket, even in a gubernatorial race. Ask governor Gillespie how easy it is to win in a blue state when Democrats/moderates/etc. are turning out in record numbers to punish the GOP across the board. Yes, CT isn’t VA and Republicans are less likely to focus on controversial cultural/social issues here, but I don’t understand why people think Republicans will easily get the numbers they need out of places like Fairfield County when they failed to do so in two GOP wave years.

[Xing]

Yes, if polling is showing Republicans competitive in CT, that totally means that they have at least a 50/50 shot there, just like in 2014. Obviously the fact that this is a Clinton +15 state and most undecideds are likely leaning Democratic doesn’t matter either, duh (it matters in safe D ME, though).

Polls have had Republicans ahead consistently here, compared to RI, where Raimondo is slightly ahead, and facing the same opponent she beat in 2014. If RI is winnable for Republicans, why isn't CT? It's not like polling here is as bad as NV, since polls only underestimated Malloy by less than 1%. I'm not saying Republicans have this race in the bag by any means, but calling it Safe D is premature.

[Young Conservative]

Fantastic

[Free Bird]

It's conceivable, even with her weaknesses, that Stewart has the best shot, but these numbers seem all over the place. That and there's decimals. Probably a result of the small sample size.

[Politician]

Go Ned Lamont!

[Canis]

Go Stewart!

[Maxwell]

has there been any polling on the Republican primary? I'd be surprised if Stewart actually won the nomination. From what I hear, Stewart is very moderate and seems like a tailor made candidate for the general election, and not exactly the kind of candidate that wins GOP primaries.

It's also telling how much she over performs THE NEXT most notable GOP contender.

This poll seems more accurate - Democrats are definitely harmed by Malloy but not irreparably.

[RINO Tom]

has there been any polling on the Republican primary? I'd be surprised if Stewart actually won the nomination. From what I hear, Stewart is very moderate and seems like a tailor made candidate for the general election, and not exactly the kind of candidate that wins GOP primaries.

It's also telling how much she over performs THE NEXT most notable GOP contender.

This poll seems more accurate - Democrats are definitely harmed by Malloy but not irreparably.

http://www.courant.com/politics/elections/hc-pol-ct-poll-no-clear-frontrunner-20180221-story.html

First poll I found on a Google search was from February but had Stewart in first.  Also, even the "GOP primary electorate is crazy" meme has been pretty funny on Atlas, each state's Republicans are still different.  CT Republicans aren't nominating a Roy Moore type soon, and a Blankenship type wouldn't get anywhere near third, IMO.  Stewart has a fine chance of winning, though I think Boughton is going to be tough, too.

[choclatechip45]

has there been any polling on the Republican primary? I'd be surprised if Stewart actually won the nomination. From what I hear, Stewart is very moderate and seems like a tailor made candidate for the general election, and not exactly the kind of candidate that wins GOP primaries.

It's also telling how much she over performs THE NEXT most notable GOP contender.

This poll seems more accurate - Democrats are definitely harmed by Malloy but not irreparably.

http://www.courant.com/politics/elections/hc-pol-ct-poll-no-clear-frontrunner-20180221-story.html

First poll I found on a Google search was from February but had Stewart in first.  Also, even the "GOP primary electorate is crazy" meme has been pretty funny on Atlas, each state's Republicans are still different.  CT Republicans aren't nominating a Roy Moore type soon, and a Blankenship type wouldn't get anywhere near third, IMO.  Stewart has a fine chance of winning, though I think Boughton is going to be tough, too.

They chose McMahon over Shays and Simmons and Foley over Fedele and McKinney.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Wait what? ROFL

They actually picked Linda McMahon over Chris Shays?! Are they insane? Shays was a good congressman, but they decided to pick a wife of a celebrity. I can't believe it. And after she lost by 12 in 2010.

[choclatechip45]

Wait what? ROFL

They actually picked Linda McMahon over Chris Shays?! Are they insane? Shays was a good congressman, but they decided to pick a wife of a celebrity. I can't believe it. And after she lost by 12 in 2010.

Yup in 2012. He was my congressman growing up I was stunned when they chose her over Shays. Especially after 2010 and it would be harder in a presidential year for even Shays to win. Plus I've been hearing from people who know RTC members that they aren't high on Stewart.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Pls Stewart. I really like the idea of a Lamont-Stewart matchup though. Please nominate her and not Don Blankenship lite.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

http://www.courant.com/politics/hc-pol-erin-stewart-republican-governor-20180511-story.html

God bless the "moderate" republicans like Free Bird who wants the GOP to focus on Sanctuary cities, leaving reasonable republicans like Stewart in the dust. My lord, will these people ever get their head out of their ass? Stewart seemed like she would make a good governor, but muh Sanctuary cities muh Trump is surely the perfect formula to winning in CT (spoiler alert: it isn't)

[Bidenworth2020]

http://www.courant.com/politics/hc-pol-erin-stewart-republican-governor-20180511-story.html

God bless the "moderate" republicans like Free Bird who wants the GOP to focus on Sanctuary cities, leaving reasonable republicans like Stewart in the dust. My lord, will these people ever get their head out of their ass? Stewart seemed like she would make a good governor, but muh Sanctuary cities muh Trump is surely the perfect formula to winning in CT (spoiler alert: it isn't)

she would be a pretty good governor admittedly, but what is your obsession with her?