Canadian by-elections, 2018 (next: Leeds-Grenville-etc., federal, Dec 3)

[Lotuslander]

The pools about it with regional samples have the pipeline being the least popular in Metro Vancouver and the most in non-Vancouver mainland.

Nada. Latest KM pipeline polling (several polls) in BC showing major shift in favour. Majority of BC interior/Metro Vancouver supports same while plurality on Van Isle.

But key figure is *strong opposition*. While it has been at ~20% over years, that figure now falling as well to between 10% - 17%. That 10% to 17% *strong opposition* likely split between NDP/Green voters. Can't win an election on those numbers & that's even if this *strong* opposition are *one issue* voters. Doubt that as well.

[Lotuslander]

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The only election EVER fought on KM pipeline in BC was the 2013 BC provincial election. Was known as the "Kinder Morgan Surprise", which dominated latter half of campaign. BC NDP ran TV ads with oil tankers in Burrard Inlet opposing same.

Final outcome? BC NDP lost popular vote share in ALL 4 Burnaby ridings over 2009 election. Go figure.

2017 BC election? BC NDP leader Horgan told media that he "did not want to talk about KM". Wasn't an issue. At all.

In 2015 fed election? Local newspapers reported that candidates in all fed Burnaby ridings stated that KM was not even an issue at the door step.

Latest Angus Reid poll results on KM in BC:

Strongly Support: 35%
Moderately Support: 27%
Moderately Oppose: 13%
Strongly Oppose: 15%
Don't Know: 10%

Net Support: 62%
Net Oppose: 28%

Key figure here is 15% *strongly* opposed. Fringe territory.

Frankly, I'd wager that the KM pipeline would be a bigger issue in downtown T.O. riding of Toronto-Danforth than in Burnaby South.

PS. KM pipeline doesn't even run through riding of Burnaby South.

[Lotuslander]

This tidbit from article:

"The Liberal party wants him to win so badly, the Prime Minister may well give Singh a free pass by not putting up a Liberal competitor."

Sounds more like Martin trying to make a point than anything else. BTW, LPC has already officially announced they will run candidate in Burnaby South to quell any such rumours.

Some recent data points:

Week-old federal poll of City of Vancouver proper residents with large n=862 sample size. Federal voting intentions:

LPC: 38.8%
CPC: 26.5%
NDP: 21%
Green: 9.4%
Other 4.4%

If (big if) those numbers held up on e-day, NDP would have tough time hanging onto Vancouver-Kingsway IMHO. Burnaby South is adjacent to fed ridings of Vancouver South & Vancouver-Kingsway in City of Vancouver proper.

This week's Nanos "Preferred PM" numbers for BC:

Trudeau: 44.26%
Scheer: 19.36%
Unsure: 18.09%
May: 11.83%
Singh: 5.97%

Any media coverage Singh receives in BC is mostly negative - for those even paying any attention.

As for KM twinning? Just fringe 15% of BCers "strongly" oppose same. Even NDP-dominated Burnaby City council relatively recently brought in RCMP & bulldozers evicting anti-KM protester camp. Speaks volumes.

As for Burnaby South demographics? Roughly more than 50% are foreign-born & mostly from China, Hong Kong & Taiwan.

One just needs to read proverbial tea leaves for Burnaby South.

[Lotuslander]

Sigh. When Jagmeet was recently in Regina, SK at NDP meeting, former SK NDP MP Lorne Nystrom also was in attendance. His take in the TorStar?

"I went to one of Singh's meetings in Regina and was totally underwhelmed", Nystrom said. "Someone asked him about the economy and he ended up talking about love and courage."

#Awesomeness

Wait a minute... BREAKING NEWS: Media/pollster pundits are now claiming that not only will Jagmeet eclipse "Trudeau-mania" from 1968 but will also eclipse "Beatle-mania from mid-1960's. In riding of Burnaby-South of all places. Who woulda thunk?

#Awesomeness

PS. DL - your previous ignorant/deceptive post? In German we literally call same "Katzenjammer" (cat's wail).

[Definition: Sometimes used to indicate a general state of depression or bewilderment. It has also been used as a term for a hangover, with the sufferer's groans of discomfort being likened to a wailing cat.]