NH-PPP: Obama up by 12

[Vosem]

R+1 for Romney (R-NH)

Polls showing Romney up in New Hampshire are from when the Republicans were campaigning there and comparing him to about every evil person in political history. That is over.

Unless PPP has a wild pro-Democratic bias (I would need to see some polls from the Mountain and Deep South to verify that), Mitt Romney has a disaster in the making if he is losing three states that Dubya barely won (Iowa and New Mexico in 2004 and New Hampshire and 2000) by more than 10%.

PPP does not have a wild Democratic bias (their new Wisconsin poll shows Obama ahead by just 1 point, which seems incongruous with a D bias). PPP is generally a good pollster, but they are not the gold standard some posters here treat them as; occasionally they tilt left (predicting Ilya Sheyman's victory) and occasionally right (predicting Doug Hoffman's victory). The only other pollster which showed NH as anything but a very close state was UNH, which has not generally been very reliable over the years.

The simplest thing to say is that this is a fluke.

[Vosem]

Sure... but he must win of every one of

Florida
Missouri
Nevada
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia

One chance in 64, which is a gamble that he can't find adequate. No single appeal or issue wins all of them.

In theory he could win Michigan or Pennsylvania as a substitute for any one of those states...but I wouldn't bet against a strong union GOTV drive.
[/quote]

But that isn't one chance in 64. You have to adjust for details -- Romney is more likely than Obama to win MO, the opposite is true in NV. And in your last sentence, you forget once again that Wisconsin is clearly showing the anti-union drive is more powerful than the union drive nowadays.