Spanish elections and politics

[Velasco]

Andalusia hitted the balance in favour of Santamaría. Results by region:

Now, how will the runoff play out in the congress? Will Cospedal throw her support to Casado in order to stop Santamaría, or will there be a consensus to support the most voted candidate in the 1st round?

Given that Cospedal and Santamaría hate each other and the margin is narrow, it's very likely that Casado takes the battle. Tonight he called Cospedal supporters to join his ranks. Obviously he has a good chance of winning the second round at the party convention, with the support of delegates loyal to Cospedal.  However, Santamaría supporters will argue that her candidate is the one entitled to be the next PP leder. This outcome is potentially harmful for the party's unity. In that regard, it would have been better that Casado came first. This mess proves that the voting system is poorly designed. It could have been averted with the membership voting in the two rounds. It happens that PP never held democratic elections before.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I am not sure if I should ask this question because somehow I have feeling that I have already asked that question but:


How UPyD is currently doing? Are they relevant anywhere?

[TheSaint250]

According to Politico’s article, Casado seems to be the more “liberal” one. Is this true?

[Former President tack50]

I am not sure if I should ask this question because somehow I have feeling that I have already asked that question but:


How UPyD is currently doing? Are they relevant anywhere?

I don't think anyone has asked about UPyD reciently so I guess it's a good question.

Apparently after the 2015 election (when they lost all seats and got 0.8% of the vote) their leader Andrés Herzog resigned and was replaced by MP in the Basque Country's regional assembly Gorka Maneiro. They also debated whether the party should close down for good but apparently the dissolution proposal was rejected.

In any case, Maneiro performed even worse than Herzog, getting only 0.21% of the vote; coming even behind "Zero Cuts: The greens", a very fringe party, and slightly ahead of Vox.

Maneiro was replaced now by Cristiano Brown, city councillor in the town of Las Rozas (Madrid). Interestingly, Brown is actually an inmigrant from Brasil who came to Spain when he was 9 years old.

So yes, UPyD still exists. However, I'd say their future will be very similar to that of CDS back in the 90s. The party loses all its seats after the party founder (Adolfo Suarez /Rosa Diez) resigns after an abysmal local election (1991/2015); however the party rejects dissolution and stays in zombie form for 15 years.

I seriously doubt UPyD will ever be relevant again, except maybe at the local level. They have a very, very slim chance of holding 1 MEP if Maite Pagazaurtundua (the only of the 4 MEPs who still belongs to UPyD and isn't an independent) somehow manages to hold her seat but I don't think that's likely. If UPyD somehow managed to hold that 1 MEP then maybe the party could be revived but it's a small chance.

According to Politico’s article, Casado seems to be the more “liberal” one. Is this true?

Well, in the European sense yes. Ie he wants tax cuts and the like. He apparently wants to cut income tax (having a top bracket below 40%) and corporate tax. Liberal in this sense basically means economic liberal, wanting low taxes, cuts and privatization.

While the PP primaries have been extremely light on policy, I guess the main divide is that Santamaría is the more "technocratic" and moderate candidate and closer to Rajoy, while Casado is the more "ideological" candidate, much closer to the ideas of Aznar.

[Mike88]

Now, how will the runoff play out in the congress? Will Cospedal throw her support to Casado in order to stop Santamaría, or will there be a consensus to support the most voted candidate in the 1st round?

Given that Cospedal and Santamaría hate each other and the margin is narrow, it's very likely that Casado takes the battle. Tonight he called Cospedal supporters to join his ranks. Obviously he has a good chance of winning the second round at the party convention, with the support of delegates loyal to Cospedal.  However, Santamaría supporters will argue that her candidate is the one entitled to be the next PP leder. This outcome is potentially harmful for the party's unity. In that regard, it would have been better that Casado came first. This mess proves that the voting system is poorly designed. It could have been averted with the membership voting in the two rounds. It happens that PP never held democratic elections before.

You're right that whoever made this election system up should get an Oscar for "Most stupid picture", but that doesn't explain the stupidity of Calado and Cospedal, in view. These people were just furious, a few weeks ago, that the second party in Parliament was now government and now they want to join forces to overthrow the most voted candidate in their party's primaries. See the contradiction here? Plus, Calado is now on the spotlight. I wouldn't be surprised that in the next few days, some new development about his master degree is published.

[Mike88]

It seems that some Cospedal supporters are against a Casado/Cospedal alliance to overthrow Santamaría: Supporters of Cospedal ask that Casado be integrated into a unique candidacy.

Also, Casado's degree controversy is already back: "Pablo, you have to fix the master."

[Mike88]

Map of elected delegates, or "compromisarios", for the PP congress:



Santamaría has 1,196 compromisarios (44%)
Cospedal has 850 (31%)
Calado has 672 (25%)

Don't know why Cospedal has more compromisarios than Calado, because she polled third in the primaries, but according to these numbers, Santamaría only needs 164 more to be elected leader.

[Velasco]

The number of delegates supporting Casado, Cospedal or Santamaria is not necessarily correlated with their vote on past Thursday. Source?

[Velasco]

By the way, the incompetent who designed the voting system in two rounds is Fernando Martínez Maillo

https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fernando_Martínez_Maíllo

[Mike88]

The number of delegates supporting Casado, Cospedal or Santamaria is not necessarily correlated with their vote on past Thursday. Source?

I found these numbers here: http://electomania.es/comppromisarios/

It's apparently an El Mundo analysis/calculation of the primary election results. It seems that, according to this calculation, that it is "Winner Takes All" by provinces.

[Velasco]

Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez and Catalan remier Quim Torra met yesrterday at La Moncloa, rhe seat of Spanish government in Madrid. The meeting was aimed to ease long running tensions between central and regional administrations, as well as re-open previously suspended billateral discussions. The most visible result of the meeting is that they agreed to keep talking. "Normalization" of the institutional relationship and "thaw" are the key words. Predictably the two disagreed on the issue of Catalan self-determination, which Torra demands and Sánchez maintains that it'd not allowed under the Spanish constitution. However Deputy PM Carmen Calvo said at a press conference after the meeting that it's possible to move forward on other items: “Torra makes statements on a right to self-determination that does not exist as a right in any European constitution. We need to talk about Catalonia’s autonomy and about matters that are stuck in the Constitutional Court. We are ready to lift the veto on a few laws on energy, healthcare and poverty that are part of the policies of the new government of Spain.”

Sánchez: “a political crisis requires a political solution. This meeting is a constructive starting point to normalize relations.”

Torra: “the meeting has been long, honest and work-based, and we have given our visions for Catalonia. There’s been a mutual acknowledgement of what we each represent. Sánchez has admitted that this is a political problem that requires political solutions. And we’ve talked about everything.”

This is the first face-to-face conversation between a Spanish PM and a Catalan premier since 2012, when Mariano Rajoy and Artur Mas met. In that meeting Mas demanded Rajoy a reform in the financing system of Catalonia to make it as similar as possible to the Basque fiscal reime. Spanish PM refused arguing that it wasn't the right time to discuss an improvement of regional financing, because Spain was in the midst of a terrible economic crisis and on the verge of a bailout. Since then, Mas turned to be openly pro-independence and a new phase began.  That was the starting point of the procès, the Catalan drive to independence.

https://www.politico.eu/article/spanish-pm-and-catalan-leader-agree-to-re-open-bilateral-talks/

[Velasco]

Andalusia premier Susana Díaz could move next year's election forward this Autumn.

There are two reasons:

1) The new government led by Pedro Sánchez is honeymooning with public opinion, after the success of the no-confidence motion and the beginning of a new political cycle. Susana Díaz would want to take advantage of the popularity of her main rival in the PSOE while there's a tail wind that favours her interests.

2) The court ruling of the ERE case -a corruption scandal that affects former officials of the regional government- is expected to March 2019, the same month regional elections are scheduled. Andalusian socialists fear a shattering ruling that portrays decades of excesses and self-indulgency. The PSOE has been governing without interruptions since 1980.

Opposition parties are already preparing for a snap election. By the moment no rival to challenge Susana Díaz has been officially appointed, although it's likely the 2014 election candidates repeat. PP leader in Andalusia José Manuel Moreno Bonilla was recently reelected. However, he has to be confirmed candidate by the new PP leadership after the PP national convention on July 20 and 21. Moreno Bonilla is a staunch supporter of Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría and the vote of Andalusians was key for the momentary advantage of the former Deputy PM in the first round of the leadership contest. 

Cs decided to move forward its process to select candidates. Juan Marín, candidate in the 2014 election, is the favourite. According to ABC Sevilla the CS Executive Committee agreed that two independents top the list in Huelva and Jaén provinces.

Podemos, IU, Equo and smaller organizations are in the process of forming a joint list provisionally called Ahora Andalucía (Now Andalusia). The formation will be complex, as usual in these forces of the alternative left. Every party and organization will hold primaries and then they'll have to find a way to arrange the common list. Likely the candidate will be the Podemos leader in Andalusia Teresa Rodríguez. who belongs to the anti-capitalist faction.

A poll released a week ago places PSOE ahead followed by Cs, PP and Podemos-IU

SW Demoscopia

PSOE 38.1% (+2.7%) 47 (=) seats
Cs 21.5% (+12.3%) 23 (+14) seats
PP 19.8% (-7%) 23 (-10) seats
Podemos+IU 14.8% (-6.9%) 16 (-4) seats

https://www.electograph.com/2018/07/andalucia-swdemoscopia-junio18.html

[Velasco]

Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría and Pablo Casado sat together at a "summer dinner party" organized by the PP parliamentary group on Tuesday night. Later the party organization provided pictures of them smiling hugely. However, the truce ended after the dinner. In the following day Casado warned against"gender ideology" and threw out the following question: "is Santamaría so worthless that people votes her only for being a woman?". Santamaría replied: "dividing between ladies in an attempt to find a space is something that I don't like". She meant that Casado tries to take advantage of her rivalry with Cospedal. The former Deputy PM clains that a majority of the PP membership wants a woman leading, because she and Cospedal got 63% of the vote together. Casado rated Santamaría's statements as an "offence gainst women", adding that PP is "committed to talent, regardless of gender". Casado says he can't believe that someone accuses him of male chauvinism, even though he has stated that feminism is a "collectivist movement" that "must be combated by the centre-right" because "liberals" are "committed to individuals and not collectives".

In related news, Pablo Casado and premier Alberto Núñez Feijoó attended together a meeting of party delegates in Galicia. Casado didn't get the explicit endorsement of Feijoó, but receved some "gestures of affection" in exchange. The Galician premier wants to keep a neutral appearance. It won't be surprising that a vast majority of delegates from Galicia votes for Casado, except the delegates from the Ourense province which boss is Feijoo's only rival in the region.

Celeste-Tell poll for eldiario.es

PSOE 27.1% 106-109 seats
PP 24.2%  97-99 seats
Cs 20.6% 62-64 seats
UP 17.7% 51-56 seats
Others 10.4% 26-27 seats

[Former President tack50]

The german regional court has rejected sending Puigdemont under rebellion, they only allow sending him under public fund misuse charges. The Spanish courts have rejected extradition under those conditions. Llarena's only exit would be to appeal to European courts. In any case, it seems Puigdemont is safe and won't go to jail.

Also, 2 more polls. One of them actually includes results both with Casado and Soraya as PP leaders, confirming what we already knew (Casado makes Vox go lower)

Top position





Simple Lógica

PSOE: 27,2%
Cs: 26,0%
PP: 18.7%
UP: 17,3%
Others: 10,8%

[Velasco]

The decision of the German court was predictable. The arguments of Llarena are unconvincing. Neither Puigdemont nor the Catalan politicians jailed in Spain can be charged with rebellion because what they did is illegal, but it wasn't an attempt to overthrow government by violent means.

Does any other pollster apart from Sociometrica and Simple Lógica predict results for the Vox party?  It's clear that Casado has more appeal with right-wing and far-right voters, those scoring 7-8 and 9-10 in the CIS ideological scale. However, Santamaría should have a better appeal with centre-right voters (5-6) and the battleground for mainstream parties is always on the centre. I'd be surprised if a fringe party with no clear leadership like Vox makes substantial progress, although nothing is impossible. Maybe Casado will have to tone down some of his right-wing stances in case he wins the leadership contest. I think the undercover support of Feijoó and Cospedal makes him the favourite.

[TheSaint250]

In the Top Position polls, did they release figures for PDeCAT, PNV, and EH Bildu?

[Former President tack50]

The decision of the German court was predictable. The arguments of Llarena are unconvincing. Neither Puigdemont nor the Catalan politicians jailed in Spain can be charged with rebellion because what they did is illegal, but it wasn't an attempt to overthrow government by violent means.

Does any other pollster apart from Sociometrica and Simple Lógica predict results for the Vox party?  It's clear that Casado has more appeal with right-wing and far-right voters, those scoring 7-8 and 9-10 in the CIS ideological scale. However, Santamaría should have a better appeal with centre-right voters (5-6) and the battleground for mainstream parties is always on the centre. I'd be surprised if a fringe party with no clear leadership like Vox makes substantial progress, although nothing is impossible. Maybe Casado will have to tone down some of his right-wing stances in case he wins the leadership contest. I think the undercover support of Feijoó and Cospedal makes him the favourite.

Yes, the rebellion charges make no sense whatsoever. There was 100% no violence (or at least no more violence than say, in your usual general strike). The sedition charges would make more sense to me (and even then I'm unsure if those would be accurate but certainly more than rebellion).

In fact, I'd say there's a non negligible (but very small) chance of Junqueras and the rest actually being declared innocent, at least of the rebellion charges (probably not of public fund misuse though).

Also, I wonder if they will eventually be pardoned (whether by Sánchez or another future PM). Barrionuevo (GAL) was pardoned by Aznar and Armada (23F coup) was pardoned by González so following the "controversial pardons" precedent, in theory the next PP/Cs prime minister should pardon the Catalan government. Of course that will never happen, but still a pardon wouldn't be the most controversial thing in the world.

As for Vox and pollsters, it seems that the following pollsters have shown results for Vox in the past:

JM&A (Público; technically not a poll)
Sociométrica (El Español)
Top Position
GAD3 (ABC) (no seats but 1.1% of the vote)

They've also appeared in an NC Report (La Razón) poll for Madrid regional elections (2.8%, no seats).

As for leadership, I wouldn't say Vox has bad leadership, at least not for a party of that size (just compare them to PACMA for example). They seem to have 3 somewhat high profile people: Santiago Abascal (party president), Javier Ortega-Smith (secretary general, leading Vox's accusation of the former catalan government) and probably the best known being Antonio Ortega Lara (very high profile ETA victim, was kidnapped for 532 days).

Though their ceiling is extremely low, there's no way they'll get above like 2% and 1-2 seats.

[Former President tack50]

In the Top Position polls, did they release figures for PDeCAT, PNV, and EH Bildu?

Nope. In fact one of the weirdest things about that poll is the 1% drop in the "others" group between Soraya and Casado. I see absolutely no reason for nationalist voters to switch depending on the PP leader.

Not to mention that 9.2% or even 8.2% is slightly too high if ERC isn't there. In 2016 the "others" got roughly 7% of the vote. Maybe they are counting blank ballots there as well? Alternatively, maybe there's a PACMA surge as well?

[Velasco]

As for Vox and pollsters, it seems that the following pollsters have shown results for Vox in the past:

JM&A (Público; technically not a poll)
Sociométrica (El Español)
Top Position
GAD3 (ABC) (no seats but 1.1% of the vote)

They've also appeared in an NC Report (La Razón) poll for Madrid regional elections (2.8%, no seats).

As for leadership, I wouldn't say Vox has bad leadership, at least not for a party of that size (just compare them to PACMA for example). They seem to have 3 somewhat high profile people: Santiago Abascal (party president), Javier Ortega-Smith (secretary general, leading Vox's accusation of the former catalan government) and probably the best known being Antonio Ortega Lara (very high profile ETA victim, was kidnapped for 532 days).

Though their ceiling is extremely low, there's no way they'll get above like 2% and 1-2 seats.

Santiago Abascal lacks merits to be considered a "high profile" politician. In my opinion he is uncharismatic besides an idiot. Precedents tell us that it's possible for an idiot to become POTUS if your name is Donald Trump and you have some charisma. Possibly there are more examples of idiots and clowns with charisma in the European far-right. That's not the case of Abascal. The only well-known figure in this trio is Ortega Lara because of his terrible experience, but he lacks everything else.

The Vox candidate in the last European elections Alejo Vidal-Quadras was relatively high-profile (radical but not idiot). He was on the verge of winning a seat. Vidal-Quadras was previously a MEP elected in the PP list.

Maybe the result of that EP election indicates what is the most that Vox could win: a seat in Madrid if the party reachs the 3% threshold there. I never thought Simple Lógica is a reliable pollster, on the other hand. This "Top Position" poll looks strange and the pollster is new to me.
 

[Velasco]

Casado's rightward shift opens ideological battle in the PP that splits the party in two. He and his supporters want a "debate of ideas" and a "refoundation"" of the PP, something that Santamaría and her supporters reject arguing that it's not time to discuss a new platform but to elect a new leader. A debate between Santamaría and Casado was discarded due to "lack of consensus".

The Casado campaign has already began the ideological battle with proposals to the right of Rajoy, such as the ban of separatist parties, or going back to the 1985 abortion law* claiming that "abortion is not a right" and the current law passed in 2010 is too permissive and gives "free drink". Leaders like José María Aznar and Esperanza Aguirre have been demanding an "ideological rearm" for years, because they say that a party with no clear ideology is like a "headless chicken". Aguirre complained that, while the PP was in government, she and others warning against "ideological indefinition" were preaching in the desert. But she's no longer crying in the wilderness bacause Pablo Casado has embraced the cause. "I want to launch a national project with a discourse that is recognizable", said the candidate at the beginning of the campaign. On the primary election day Aguirre stated that she voted for Casado "with great illusion".

The campaigns of Casado and Sanatamaría have opposite styles. Casado tries to campaign in a"presidential" style with proposals for legislative changes, while the campaign of Santamaría is more focused on leadership. Supporters of Casado criticize the lack of legislative proposals in the Sanatamaría campaign, as well as her management of the conflict in Catalonia and her failed "Operation Dialogue" with the separatists. Supporters of Sanatamaría rate the critics on Catalonia made by the opposite camp as "opportunistic".

On economic policies Casado stands for "unashamed liberalism". Some of his proposals are the renegotiation of subsidies and their replacement by fiscal incentives, or a "standard tax system" with low rates and no deductions.

A sign of this rightward shift and "ideological rearm" is that María San Gil came out of retirement and attended an event of the Casado campaign, stating that with him she is recuperating enthusiasm. San Gil was the leader of PP in the Basque Country and was notorious by her hardline stance against ETA and nationalists. Casado wants to recruit José Antonio Ortega Lara, the prison officer who was kidnapped by ETA that left PP for the Vox party.

*Abortion in Spain
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Spain#Organic_Law_9/1985

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[windjammer]

If Santamaria wins I expect her in the future to become prime minister. She seems to have killer instincts like Merkel

[Velasco]

New set of polls

Sigma Dos / El Mundo

PSOE 26.3%  Cs 24.2% PP 22.3% UP 16.1% ERC 3.2% PDeCAT 1.2% PNV 1.1% Others 5.6%

Invymark/ La Sexta

PSOE 26.5% PP 23.4% Cs 21.9% UP 18.1% Others 10.1%

JM&A / Público*

PSOE 26.4% Cs 23.6% PP 19.7% UP 17.5% Others 12.8%

_{*Estimation by Jaume Miquel & associates}

[Velasco]

An anonymous video spread via social networks and whatsapp with attacks to Santamaría has provoked great anger in the candidacy of the former Deputy PM. The video features Santamaría and some of her supporters (Javier Arenas, Cristóbal Montoro, Celia Villalobos), long-term politiicians deemed unsuited for the party's renewal.  The team of Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría has submitted a formal complaint asking the PP for an investigation, as well as demanding an explanation from Casado's candidacy. "The letter sent by Sanatamaría's team deems the video as an "intolerable attack", as well as an "excercise of pollution and personal questioning".

Anonymous video targeted against Santamaría. Title: "Tell me how are you going to renew us"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkvFSmgHfro

In other news, defense lawyers for jailed Catalan separatist leaders will request their release

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/07/13/inenglish/1531490884_163779.html

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[Velasco]

Yesterday morning Pedro Sánchez explained his plans for government, 45 days after the no-confidence vote against Mariano Rajoy. The new PSOE government is already experiencing the hardships of its parliamentary weakness, losing a vote to renew the board of the RTVE broadcasting group. Despite the PSOE negotiated an agreement with Unidos Podemos and the PNV, as well as the support of ERC and PDeCAT, the vote failed because two deputies were absent and other two made a mistake. Also, Pedro Sánchez is facing criticism from various sides. PP and Cs accuse him with harsh rhetoric of being indebted with Catalan and Basque nationalists, while the parties supporting the fragile parliamentary majority say that he is already going back on promises. like publishing the names od f tax evaders*

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/07/17/inenglish/1531813054_774710.html

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The Spanish PM addressed the situation in Catalonia, which is a priority for his administration. In a reply to ERC spokesman Joan Tardá, Sánchez said that "Catalans will have to vote". However, both disagreed on the matter to vote. Catalan separatists want a vote on independence, but Sánchez argues that's not in the Constitution and offers a reform as well as "frank and direct dialogue".

Sánchez also talked about housing, jobs and pensions in his speech, underscoring the importance of the welfare state.

*Pedro Sánchez promised that while in opposition, but now the government argues legal impediments that prevent revealing the names of tax evaders. On the other hand, the Unidos Podemos parliamentary group is requesting a commision of inquiry after some audio recordings of the "special friend" (lover) of emeritus king Juan Carlos surfaced. According to Corinna, Juan Carlos fails to distinguish the legal from the illegal. The father of the incumbent head of state is immune to legal punshment.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/07/16/inenglish/1531729422_476862.html

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There were new developments in the PP leadership contest. On Monday morning, María Dolores de Cospedal endorsed officially the candidate Pablo Casado. Later it was revealed that former PM Mariano Rajoy pushed unsuccessfully for an arrangement between the two candidates, in order that both merge in a single list led by Santamaría. With that move, Rajoy broke his promise to remain neutral.

In other news, Matteo Salvini declared war on Spanish NGO rescue ship

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/07/18/inenglish/1531901276_303984.html

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A less known fact is that Spain is outnumbering Italy in immigrant arrivals by sea. This year 18,016 people reached the Spanish coast, while 17,827 reached Italy. These changes in the migrant flows are totally unrelated with the xenophobic demagoguery of the Italian Deputy PM, who makes gains by fostering hatred and paranoid obsession on immigration.

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/07/17/actualidad/1531855916_995446.html

[Velasco]

New Catalan poll released by El Periódico on Sunday. On the pro-independence side ERC and CUP make gains while Puigdrmont's JxCAT loses ground: the pro-independence majority remains unchanged. On the non-nationalist side PSC advances while Cs makes slight loses, while CatComú-Podem and PP make very slight gains or remain stable. ERC would replace Cs as the first party, both in seats and popular vote.



[im