Which State Is More Likely to Go to the Democrats : NC or WI

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Honestly I don't see any Democrats gaining any southern state except FL. The region is just far too polarized by race. And we already saw how Osoffism works.

You're being silly. The south is trending towards democrats and there's nothing people like you can do to stop it.

Black turnout went down a lot. Yet despite that, Hillary gained in Georgia over Obama. According to https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/democracy/reports/2017/11/01/441926/voter-trends-in-2016/ Georgia would have been 1.75 points more Republican in 2012. North Carolina would have been almost 1.5 points more Republican in 2012.

The south will rise again, even if losers like you won't recognize it.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Here the thing your missing. They have basically maxed out the suburban professionals and have nowhere to gain unless black turnout is high (see Osoff). The "swing" in GA was Romney voters going for Gary Johnson. Also note Drumpf actually won more individual votes than Mitt Romney despite the percentage falling.

GA is staying Republican. Democrats can spend $50 million every two years if they want but it's not flipping.

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You sound very angry and defensive for no good reason.

Georgia dems have not even come close to maxing out. They're only beginning their complete and utter dominance. Georgia dems are going to win bigly in 2018, 2020, and infinity and beyond. I'm sure a socialist from Washington knows my state better than me.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Okay joking around aside, I think there is good reason to assume Georgia is trending democrat rapidly. The demographics are increasingly becoming significantly more favorable for democrats (It's trended democrat every year since like 2004).

No state has as big of an age gap as Georgia:



18-29 year olds in Georgia vote the same way as 18-29 year olds in New Jersey, a much more liberal state.

All democrats need to do to win in Georgia is do slightly better with the white vote (which they are -- both uneducated and educated white voters trended towards democrats this election cycle), and have 4 more years of changing demographics, and badabing badaboom they win Georgia.

It feels like you're just looking back at the past to expect results, which is a very non manly way of doing predictions. Times are a changing. We ain't in Kansas anymore. Democrats ain't even close to maximizing the suburbs (58% of the population lives in the Atlanta suburbs btw). Atlanta suburbs are becoming more and more diverse every passing day, and the Hispanic population is still very young.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

People tend to get more conservative as they get older. That being said, Georgia is clearly going the way of Virginia. I suspect that by 2028 we will look back on Mccain winning Georgia despite getting clobbered nationally the same way we look back on Dole winning Virginia and Colorado in 1996 despite getting clobbered

How do you explain 1988-2002? There was basically no age gap in all of these years (Clinton and Gore's best age group is 65+). It's not that people get more conservative as they get older; it's that it really makes no sense as a young person to vote for the party that wants to preserve the status quo of 70% of your federal tax dollars go to Medicare, Social Security, and the military spending, but cut everything else like infrastructure, education, etc.

Why the hell would I vote for a party that wants to kick out the immigrants that help pay for Medicare and SS? That's putting the tax burden on me. I won't spend my time working my ass off so a bunch of rich old people can keep their money and very little of the federal spending goes to me. We need to ensure Medicare for all ages so I don't have to work my ass off to provide old man welfare for all of these old people.