Washington state megathread

[smoltchanov]

Washington dems, would Inslee be at all vulnerable? It seems Washington Republicans view him as vulnerable if they're pursuing Hill as hard as they are.

The GOP is simply too unpopular after Bush and some earlier things to win the governorship. Inslee's unpopularity won't be a factor, just as Gregoire was reelected with approval ratings in the low thirties.

To be fair, Gregoire was propped up by a very strong Democratic wave.

Exactly what i already said.. A lot will depend on candidate's personal qualities. For example - if, as in last SoS election, Republican will nominate a candidate able to get decent percentage in King county, and even better - in some other Democratic leaning (Thurston in this particular case) - they can win even in presidential  year.

[smoltchanov]

And one reuest for state gurus: i am living abroad now (and, probably, will be in foreseable future), so i am almost completely Internet-based as far as information is concerned. I am interested in opinions (objective) about ideological composition of freshmen in state legislature. Such information is not especially easy to find, and wait 2 years until someone, like Boris Shor, will update his legislative database is a long time. It seems to me, that Democratic politicians in the state (with glaring exceptions of Tim Sheldon and, may be, Christopher Hurst) are, generally, follow moderate-liberal to very liberal line, and that seems true about freshmen too, but i may be wrong. What about republican freshmen? I heard someone, like Melanie Stambaugh, be called "pro-choice moderate". Is it really so? In the past state has good numbers of reasonable moderate republicans, but, as in almost all states, they became much scarcer of recently, being pressed heavily by right-wingers.

Melanie Stambaugh is definitely our most interesting new GOP freshman. Only 24 and a former local beauty queen, she's probably a name to keep eye on in the South King/Puyallup area. Not sure how familiar you are with geography, but that's roughly where WA-10 and WA-8 come together. Her future is probably at the state level, though. She'll probably be her LD's Senator within 5-10 years.

I know geography (including those of Washington state) fairly well, though, of course, not as good as local denizens do. Thanks for info, but what about other freshmen?

Not many I can think of off the top of my head. That Miloscia fellow is an odd duck, a fervent social conservative but very left-wing on economic issues (former Dem, now a Rep). You don't see too many like him anymore. Doubtful he survives 2018 regardless of national mood, he benefited from a poor candidate last year.

Again - thanks!

[smoltchanov]

State Auditor Troy Kelley has been indicted for tax evasion.

Inslee is calling on Kelley to resign.

Auditor for tax evasion? Well, almost funny...

[smoltchanov]

Balducci challenging Hague for King County Council seat

Hague has had some extraordinary luck running against sub-par opponents in the past. Looks like her luck is finally running out.

(this news is a few months old at this point but I only just noticed )

Possibly strongest opponent, but Hague is far from being finished..

[smoltchanov]

Thanks for detailed break-down. The only qualm i have - in such left-wing city all fights are betweeen generally similar (i stress the word "generally") candidates: left and far left. Of course - they may be different on some local issues, but except that - essentially we have Tweedledee vs. Tweedledum here. For election observers outside of Seattle there is little difference between them.

[smoltchanov]

Thanks for detailed break-down. The only qualm i have - in such left-wing city all fights are between generally similar (i stress the word "generally") candidates: left and far left. Of course - they may be different on some local issues, but except that - essentially we have Tweedledee vs. Tweedledum here. For election observers outside of Seattle there is little difference between them.

True, but there's very few areas in the US where such progressive on progressive races take place. Even in cities like New York and Chicago, there are still conservative areas and candidates. There are so many places where the elections are a race to the right, Seattle is one of the few cities where candidates can run as far to the left as they want.

San Francisco, Oakland, Portland, Detroit, Boston (mainly)?

[smoltchanov]

Whoops, silly me. I forgot that races aren't worth talking about unless there's a minimum of 3 moderates in the running.

I never said that. But i prefer to have at least one....))

[smoltchanov]

Is Inslee expected to have a close race or is this going to be the first blowout in 16 years?

I suspect he'll win easily. If Reichert or McKenna run for his seat (both of which I doubt) it might be within single digits. But he's had a fairly innocuous tenure so far, and hasn't really done much to upset anybody, so I say he probably wins with around 15% of the vote.

Well, with Cruz and Trump both unpopular in state - may be, but 8-10% seems more realistic range to me...

[smoltchanov]

So, Kim Wyman is their only hope? Good SoS, IMHO....

[smoltchanov]

IIRC -  Litzow is very moderate, so i wouldn't underestimate his chances...

[smoltchanov]

http://rrhelections.com/index.php/2016/07/30/wa-ks-mo-legislative-primary-preview/

RRH's primary preview. Any thoughts on the Leg races this year?

Naturally, only "local" people may present more detailed information. AFAIK - legislature will be split almost equally (as it is now), with Democrats gradually squeezing remainning Republicans in Seattle suburbs, and Republicans gaining some formerly traditionally Democratic rural areas (on Peninsula, and some other). Very interested in ideological characteristics of candidates: even without Sheldon not every Democrat in Washington is "far left", and not every Republican - "far right"..

[smoltchanov]

Top 2 is marvellous. May be now Democrats will learn finally - which number of candidatates they must run without risk of losing. Mathematics here is not that difficult (state that as professional mathematician))))

BTW - 2 Republicans got almost 49% of Treasurer vote, so - candidates must be not that bad))))

[smoltchanov]

Top 2 is marvellous. May be now Democrats will learn finally - which number of candidatates they must run without risk of losing. Mathematics here is not that difficult (state that as professional mathematician))))

BTW - 2 Republicans got almost 49% of Treasurer vote, so - candidates must be not that bad))))

So the Democratic party should try to push any extra Democrats out of the race should they enter? I'm sure the base will love that.

I don't care about "base". Neither Democratic, nor Republican. Personally they may be finest people, but as a group i dislike it immensely....

[smoltchanov]

Top 2 is marvellous. May be now Democrats will learn finally - which number of candidatates they must run without risk of losing. Mathematics here is not that difficult (state that as professional mathematician))))

BTW - 2 Republicans got almost 49% of Treasurer vote, so - candidates must be not that bad))))

So the Democratic party should try to push any extra Democrats out of the race should they enter? I'm sure the base will love that.

I don't care about "base". Neither Democratic, nor Republican. Personally they may be finest people, but as a group i dislike it immensely....

Ironically enough, top two primaries hurt the beloved "Mavericks" in favour of bland people pleaders.

Disagree. Under "normal" primary system we would get only far-far-left Democrats and far-far-right Republicans in Washington state, just s we get them elsewhere. We mostly get them under top 2 as well, but variaty is still somewhat greater..

[smoltchanov]

Which of the Treasurer candidates is more moderate?

I don't know what kind of moderate identifies with the Republican party these days.  They must both be pretty old-fashioned.

For YOU (essentially - a socialist) - may be. For me - Steve Litzov is patented moderate. Hill - generally too. And some others. And this is  a Washington state only. I can give dozens of names of Republican elected officials (in addition to those already mentioned here) who absolutely deserve this title. There are even few who may be called "liberals". Usually - a moderate liberal type, but - still...

And though large part of about 51% of voters, who voted for Democratic candidates in Treasurer race, will sit November Treasurer election out, many - will not (and most likely will vote for more moderate of 2 Republicans). So - the question is both legitimate and practically useful from electoral point of view.

[smoltchanov]

And which treasurer candidate has shown more of a willingness to compromise in the direction of competence?

That's exactly what we asked YOU, local denizen, who must know better..

[smoltchanov]

^ Thanks a lot! This IS what i call an information))))

[smoltchanov]

Since Eastern Washington population growth (except for maybe Tri-Cities) doesn't appear to be especially strong I would expect more influence in the area around Seattle. If the Census Bureau is to be believed Seattle will have gained enough people to have another legislative district inside of it.

I am more interested in how the Congressional Lines will be drawn.  My guess is that Washington won't gain another seat in 2020 - though you never know - so only minor adjustments will have to be made to current boundaries.

Next decade's map will likely be 99% the same as this decades. The bipartisan commission is basically rigged to favor incumbent protection maps. The 1st might get shored up a little, and the 8th might have to get even more twisted to keep Reichert safe.

Reichert and the two independents combined for over 60% of the vote in the jungle primary this year. The district looks fine for now. Also Reichert might run statewide at some point. Cantwell vs. Reichert would be a barn-burner under a Hillary Presidency if he can be coaxed in.

Probably - no. Reichert will, of course, overperform, but Washington (Seattle and it's suburbs especially) became too instinctively Democratic. If McKenna couldn't win in 2012, and Wyman and Litzov (both - more moderate then Reichert, and pro-choice to boot) are both very seriously endangered this year -  then i have serious doubts about him.

[smoltchanov]

Since Eastern Washington population growth (except for maybe Tri-Cities) doesn't appear to be especially strong I would expect more influence in the area around Seattle. If the Census Bureau is to be believed Seattle will have gained enough people to have another legislative district inside of it.

I am more interested in how the Congressional Lines will be drawn.  My guess is that Washington won't gain another seat in 2020 - though you never know - so only minor adjustments will have to be made to current boundaries.

Next decade's map will likely be 99% the same as this decades. The bipartisan commission is basically rigged to favor incumbent protection maps. The 1st might get shored up a little, and the 8th might have to get even more twisted to keep Reichert safe.

Reichert and the two independents combined for over 60% of the vote in the jungle primary this year. The district looks fine for now. Also Reichert might run statewide at some point. Cantwell vs. Reichert would be a barn-burner under a Hillary Presidency if he can be coaxed in.

Probably - no. Reichert will, of course, overperform, but Washington (Seattle and it's suburbs especially) became too instinctively Democratic. If McKenna couldn't win in 2012, and Wyman and Litzov (both - more moderate then Reichert, and pro-choice to boot) are both very seriously endangered this year -  then i have serious doubts about him.

Wyman should survive given her first round victory, although anything's possible.

May be. And even Litzov - can. But both are clearly living on borrowed time, and even if they win - i doubt that they will run in 2020. Hague (another moderate) was defeated for King county council recently quite decisively...

[smoltchanov]

Since Eastern Washington population growth (except for maybe Tri-Cities) doesn't appear to be especially strong I would expect more influence in the area around Seattle. If the Census Bureau is to be believed Seattle will have gained enough people to have another legislative district inside of it.

I am more interested in how the Congressional Lines will be drawn.  My guess is that Washington won't gain another seat in 2020 - though you never know - so only minor adjustments will have to be made to current boundaries.

Next decade's map will likely be 99% the same as this decades. The bipartisan commission is basically rigged to favor incumbent protection maps. The 1st might get shored up a little, and the 8th might have to get even more twisted to keep Reichert safe.

Reichert and the two independents combined for over 60% of the vote in the jungle primary this year. The district looks fine for now. Also Reichert might run statewide at some point. Cantwell vs. Reichert would be a barn-burner under a Hillary Presidency if he can be coaxed in.

Probably - no. Reichert will, of course, overperform, but Washington (Seattle and it's suburbs especially) became too instinctively Democratic. If McKenna couldn't win in 2012, and Wyman and Litzov (both - more moderate then Reichert, and pro-choice to boot) are both very seriously endangered this year -  then i have serious doubts about him.

Wyman should survive given her first round victory, although anything's possible.

May be. And even Litzov - can. But both are clearly living on borrowed time, and even if they win - i doubt that they will run in 2020. Hague (another moderate) was defeated for King county council recently quite decisively...

Unfortunately I think Litzow goes down this year. I do think Wyman holds on, however.

We will see. Depends both on turnout and whether Litzow will be able to get vast majority of vote, which went for Libertarian candidate in August..

[smoltchanov]

^ That's why i would theoretically prefer Litzow to survive instead of much less talented (and more ideologically "pure") Republicans in other areas. The fact that he could hold for so long in such hostile area tells about big political talent and quite sane views...

[smoltchanov]

The only two counties that voted for McGovern in '72 went for Trump by 5%+ each (Grey's Harbor and Pacific).  If Kurt Cobain wasn't spinning in his grave before, he is now.  

Not only him. FDR - too. White blue collar voters were his staple, a main source of support. Now Democratic party is a party of "coastal elite" - New York's Upper East side, Beverly Hills, and so on. Not surprising that Trump (as much as i abhor him) understood that... As long as LGBT issues trump "bread and butter" - we will have an idiocy like this year. Party deserved it's fate...

[smoltchanov]

I think the only person the Rs could run and win with is King County Council member Kathy Lambert. I have no idea if she would want to, considering she left the state house for her current position.

She is substantially more conservative then Hill, so i have some doubts...

[smoltchanov]

In addition to targeting GOP seats, Dems also need to run a strong primary challenger to Tim Sheldon.

In this case they risk to lose district to "real republican". Sheldon's district is far from being very liberal in it's nature..

[smoltchanov]

In addition to targeting GOP seats, Dems also need to run a strong primary challenger to Tim Sheldon.

In this case they risk to lose district to "real republican". Sheldon's district is far from being very liberal in it's nature..

It's already basically in GOP hands already. Dems have nothing to lose by targeting Sheldon.

You think there can't be a worse Republican then Sheldon? Not sure. I heard this said many times in the South about their conservative Democrats. History has shown that to be mostly false: Republicans, who replaced these conservative Democrats, turned to be not simply worse, but - much worse.