2012 Map Megathread

[pbrower2a]

Comparing Obama 2012 to other re-election efforts against which to judge 2012, should Obama fit the patterns expected with similar success or lack thereof but fitting the partisan balances of the states:

Epic fail (the new Herbert Hoover, 1932):

Obama 59, GOP winner 479 (Maine is in yellow to reflect that the GOP candidate picks off one of the two congressional districts of Maine).

Very Poor (the new Jimmy Carter, 1980):

138 electoral votes if he wins California, 74 if he doesn't; California is shaky even without seismic stress.

Obama 74, GOP winner 464 with Obama losing California 


Obama 128, GOP winner 410 with Obama winning California

Poor (George H.W. Bush, 1992):

Obama 174; GOP winner 364

Marginal failure (Gerald Ford, 1976):

Obama 259, GOP winner 281

Victory that creates little confidence (George W. Bush, 2004)

Twilight Zone scenario (note the gray color for Colorado and Virginia!); script could have been written by Rod Serling.  Republicans have lots of recriminations about dirty-dealings in Virginia and Colorado, both of which are decided in litigation in December. Conspiracy theories abound about this election.

Obama wins 281; GOP loser 257



Bare-but-clean victory (Harry Truman, 1948):

Obama wins with 309 electoral votes, and a third-party candidate picks off IN, OH, AZ for 41 electoral votes, and the GOP candidate loses with 238 electoral votes. Weird, but it has to fit the style of 1948 somehow!

...

Since 1912 no Presidential candidate has won between 304 and 364 electoral votes, inclusive. Taft's percentage of electoral votes in 1912 was about the same as Obama's; Teddy Roosevelt won about the same percentage of electoral votes in his 1904 re-election bid as did Clinton in 1996.   This is an unlikely area for electoral results because someone in a position to lose 315 - 360 electoral votes is likely to take gambles that might barely win, barely lose, or make things far worse.
...

Very successful (Bill Clinton, 1996):

 

Obama wins 376 electoral votes, the GOP nominee loses with 162 electoral votes. (Obama picks up NW-01 and NE-02, explaining the yellow color for Nebraska)

Unqualified success (Dwight Eisenhower, 1956; FDR 1940):

457 electoral votes for Obama, about as everyone expects but the most partisan Republicans. The GOP loser gets NE-03 (but loses Nebraska at large) and picks off 80 other votes (81 total).

Epic success (Ronald Reagan, 1984; Nixon 1972):

525 electoral votes for Obama, and the GOP loser barely wins 13 electoral votes in Utah and Oklahoma. Highly unlikely, but the only people who don't see it coming are the most partisan Republicans. Obituaries are written about the Republican Party, only about half in jest.

[pbrower2a]

Post your maps here to see how close/wrong the maps tend to be be!

Note how badly the Republican ticket fares in the South. Southerners are not going to vote for two d@mnyankees who still have to explain their religion or an exotic name.

This race is more interesting if Huckabee bolts from the GOP and runs on the Reform ticket. Southerners are accustomed to voting for third-party racists, and they could easily vote for a third-party, good-ol'boy non-racist like Huckabee.   

Southerners are not going to vote for someone whose religion they don't understand, and they will vote for the fellow that they know (after October 2012 they will know Obama better than they did in 2008) with the funny name instead of some d@mnyankee that they don't know with a funny name.

If Romney gets the Republican nomination, then he had better have a Southerner as a running mate lest  he end up with this sort of electoral defeat or one in which he must run against a third-party candidate from the South.

[pbrower2a]

That's a very hopeful map for Obama, and likely not to happen.  People will grow tired of him and his 'big' government ideas and power.

People are still sick of George W. Bush.

[pbrower2a]

Romney makes things closer in the North with the possible gains of Indiana and Ohio -- but loses a raft of Southern states. Huckabee holds onto all the Southern states that voted for McCain -- but loses a bunch of Northern states that voted for McCain. Obama didn't campaign hard in states that showed little chance of voting for him; in 2012 he will win or lose some of those states on his record.

The question will be the style of the election more than the ultimate result. Romney loses a gigantic landslide in electoral votes; Huckabee probably does less well in popular votes but gets more electoral votes because he will lose by bigger margins in states that Obama won by large margins in 2008. Both likely lose Missouri and Arizona.

[pbrower2a]

People are still sick of George W. Bush.


You say people are sick of GWB?  People are already sick of Obama and will be sick even more with the GM being run by the government.

Voters despised Herbert Hoover for decades, and the Democrats exploited that fact for several cycles.

[pbrower2a]

Obama gets credit if the economy is going in the right direction.

[pbrower2a]

Obama 35% approval on November 6th 2012

Obama 40% approval on November 6th 2012

Obama 45% approval on November 6th 2012

Obama 55% approval on November 6th 2012

Obama 60% approval on November 6th 2012

Obama 65% approval on November 6th 2012