The 100 States of America

[Antonio the Sixth]

Kentucky

The Eastern part of the state gets to keep the original name, being home to the eponymous Kentucky river. Like its Southern neighbor, this state is very much part of the Appalachian cultural sphere, and as such it is Titanium R and has been for a long time. Like its Southern neighbor, it only voted Democratic twice, in 1964 and 1976 (with Clinton coming very close in 1992). However, it's not quite as monolithically Republican as Franklin. It contains some ancestral areas of Democratic strength, especially in the coal mining area in the far East of the state, as well as a decently-sized urban area around Lexington, and Dem-trending Cincinnati suburbs. Still, the bulk of the state is deeply and ancestrally Republican - especially is Southern portion, which routinely gave Republicans >60% scores even in the Solid South days. Of course, nowadays, these regional differences are barely visible at the top of the ticket (the only county Hillary and Biden won was Fayette, home to Lexington). But they can still play a role in local politics, as seen in the most recent gubernatorial elections.

Capital: I guess keeping Frankfort would be reasonable. Ideally I'd like to move the capital a little to the East and South to better reflect the state's overall layout (say, Lexington or Richmond), but realistically it's probably not worth it.

House Seats (1963): 7
House Seats (2013): 6 (-1 in 2023)

VAP Demographics (2010): 92% White

PVI 2008: R+30
PVI 2012: R+34
PVI 2016: R+39
PVI 2020: R+38

Congressional Representation: I think Republicans could go for the kill here and draw a 6-0 (5-0 after redistricting) map. Reasonably, there should be a Dem-leaning Lexington-centered district, but it's probably not hard to crack. Obviously both Senators are Republicans as well.

Local Government: Much like its RL counterpart, KY's legislature probably flipped in 2016, but flipped hard when it did and now Democrats are reduced to a token presence in the legislature. As for the governorship, Bevin would have actually won reelection in this part of the state, winning it by 4 points. Although Beshear narrowly won it in 2023 (by 2 points), I doubt a Democrat would have without the benefit of incumbency. So we probably have a solid GOP trifecta here.


Jackson

Let's name the Western portion of the state, stretching a little awkwardly to encompass Louisville and its suburban ring, after a president who's no doubt fondly remembered around these parts and who negotiated the Jackson Purchase that gave it its shape.This is arguably the more conventionally "Southern" part of the state, albeit not nearly as much as neighboring Tennessee. Wallace won 21% there in 1968, better than his 15% in KY but a far cry from his 40% in TN. This is also somewhat more friendly turf for Democrats, owing both to Louisville but also to some ancestral Democratic strength in the rural parts of the state. Clinton carried it both times, and it came tantalizing close to reelecting Carter in 1980 as well. Still, trends have not been kind to Democrats here, and nowadays the state is safe R at the federal level - but as we've seen, there's some hope for Democrats locally.

Capital: Owensboro seems like a good pick.

House Seats (1963): 7
House Seats (2013): 6 (-1 in 2023)

VAP Demographics (2010): 84% White, 10% Black

PVI 2008: R+18
PVI 2012: R+19
PVI 2016: R+25
PVI 2020: R+23

Congressional Representation: Two R Senators, and Democrats probably get confined to a single House seat centered in Louisville.

Local Government: Beshear would have won JS by 4.5 points in 2019, and since his family is from this part of the state he may well still be its governor (his margin increased to 8 points in 2023). Of course, he would still have to contend with a Republican-dominated legislature, though somewhat less so than IRL (maybe 65-35 or 70-30 rather than 80-20).


And speaking of Beshear, his razor-thin election victory in 2019 provides the best case study of the two states' political geography:


Overall, the two states mirrored each other, with the KY giving Bevin a 4-point edge while the JS gave Beshear a 4.5-point one. The funny aspect of it is that, based on land area, you'd actually expect Beshear to have done better in the Eastern half, where he managed to resurrect ancestral Democratic strength in the Coal Country. This was more than counterbalanced by Bevin's overwhelming scores in the ancestrally Republican Southern part of the state. By contrast, Beshear only won a total of 4 counties in JS, but those were the counties that mattered. His almost 100k vote lead alone was able to counteract Bevin's 65k lead in the rest of the state. Of course, Beshear couldn't have won if he hadn't also kept Bevin's margin in the rural part of the state down to a manageable level around 10 to 20 points, something no Democratic presidential candidate would dream of achieving.

[Gass3268]

Do you have the 2023 Gov results for Kentucky and Jackson?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Do you have the 2023 Gov results for Kentucky and Jackson?

Beshear won Kentucky 51-49 and Jackson 54-46. Impressive performance in KY especially.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Louisiana

The Southeastern portion of the state, encompassing its densest and most anciently settled areas with cities such as New Orleans and Baton Rouge. With a substantial Black population and historic Democratic strength, this is one of those Southern states that are just Republican enough to be out of reach at the presidential level but vulnerable downballot. Its electoral history is like that of many Southern states, flipping between JFK, Goldwater, Wallace, Nixon, Carter and Reagan. Clinton did shockingly well there in 1996, winning the state by 13 points. Of course, since then the region's Republican trend has taken its toll. Gore managed to come within 2 points of winning the state, but 4 years later Kerry lost it by 8, and that's exactly where we find Biden's margin in 2020. Obama's 2008 performance seems to have been the Democrats' nadir, and since then the state seems to have stabilized right in the Likely R area.

Capital: Baton Rouge still works.

House Seats (1963): 7
House Seats (2013): 6

VAP Demographics (2010): 60% White, 31% Black

PVI 2008: R+21
PVI 2012: R+13
PVI 2016: R+12
PVI 2020: R+13

Congressional Representation: Based on population numbers, two Black-opportunity seats seem warranted, at least following the Supreme Court's recent jurisprudence. So the incumbent House delegation is probably 5R-1D but about to become 4R-2D, much like IRL. Of course the two Senators are Republicans.

Local Government: John Bel Edwards won the state by double digits both times, so I think he very likely would have been the governor until recently. Of course, this is still a Republican-leaning state, so chances are whoever succeeded him in 2023 is a Republican. Republicans also probably control the state legislature, although it's not completely out of the realm of possibility for Democrats to win a majority in one chamber.


Acadia

Luckily there's another fitting name for the Western bulk of the state, which encompasses the traditional Acandian or Cajun country. Overall, the main difference between the two is that the Acadia is more rural, lacking urban areas on the scale of New Orleans (although Shreveport in the Far North is worth a mention). In this day and age, this automatically translates into being a lot more Republican. Not even the significant Black population, nearly as high as in LA, is enough to provide Democrats much of an opening, suggesting that White voters here are about as right-wing as in MS. As with much of the South, this wasn't always the case, though: the state still voted for Clinton twice (and indeed in 1992 Clinton did better here than in LA, as did Carter in 1976). Still, the state's right-wing roots do run deep, with Goldwater winning 62% there in 1964, and Wallace winning 51%. At this point, it's probably one of of  a growing number states Democrats barely bother to compete in.

Capital: Alexandria, nice and central.

House Seats (1963): 7
House Seats (2013): 5

VAP Demographics (2010): 66% White, 29% Black

PVI 2008: R+32
PVI 2012: R+30
PVI 2016: R+33
PVI 2020: R+36

Congressional Representation: Two Republican Senators, and probably a 4R-1D House delegation (with a creatively-shaped VRA seat around the North of the state being required).

Local Government: JBE amazingly managed to win there by 3 points in 2015, but lost by 15 points in 2019, and either way it's not much of a guide since he and Vitter are both from LA. Barring another lightning strike, both the governorship and the State Legislature are safely in GOP hands.


Figured I'd include both 2015 and 2019, since there are significant differences in the voting patterns:


As noted previously, JBE's 3-point victory in Acadia is truly remarkable for a state that was already 30 points more Republican than the country back then: this is a Doug Jones-level overperformance. The 2015 map shows us what it would take to win a state like that, and clearly it involves running up the score in Shreveport and along a diagonal that goes through the Southeastern part of the state, along which we find the new state capital. In 2019, the state reverted to its default political leanings, giving Rispone a solid majority (although still about 18 points below PVI). By contrast, Louisiana barely shifted between those two races, largely owing to significant Democratic swings in New Orleans suburbs. In both cases, it would have been a complete blowout, which suggests Democrats could still find downballot success in the state going forward.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Incredible work. Let me know if you want me to make you any district maps.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

LA-SEN 2014 would have been an extremely close Cassidy win in the Eastern part in a runoff where Dems basically gave up btw. Perhaps actual Dem investment could have gotten Landrieu over the top.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Incredible work. Let me know if you want me to make you any district maps.

I'd be happy to see any you'd like to make!

LA-SEN 2014 would have been an extremely close Cassidy win in the Eastern part in a runoff where Dems basically gave up btw. Perhaps actual Dem investment could have gotten Landrieu over the top.

Oh, fascinating! I wasn't even thinking of that one, but you're right, she could have survived that year. Not sure what her chances would have been in 2020 though.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Incredible work. Let me know if you want me to make you any district maps.

I'd be happy to see any you'd like to make!

LA-SEN 2014 would have been an extremely close Cassidy win in the Eastern part in a runoff where Dems basically gave up btw. Perhaps actual Dem investment could have gotten Landrieu over the top.

Oh, fascinating! I wasn't even thinking of that one, but you're right, she could have survived that year. Not sure what her chances would have been in 2020 though.

Any places you'd have particular interest in?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Incredible work. Let me know if you want me to make you any district maps.

I'd be happy to see any you'd like to make!

LA-SEN 2014 would have been an extremely close Cassidy win in the Eastern part in a runoff where Dems basically gave up btw. Perhaps actual Dem investment could have gotten Landrieu over the top.

Oh, fascinating! I wasn't even thinking of that one, but you're right, she could have survived that year. Not sure what her chances would have been in 2020 though.

Any places you'd have particular interest in?

I don't have a particular place in mind right now, but if you go over my descriptions of each state's congressional delegation and find one where I have a high uncertainty about how it'd turn out, or where I've made assumptions you think I'm wrong, I'd be interested to see what possibilities you can come up with.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is the House intentionally much bigger in this TL?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is the House intentionally much bigger in this TL?

Yes, 800 seats total (although that includes DC and Puerto Rico's population).

[GAinDC]

Georgia

The Southern two thirds of the state. Compared to the original Georgia, this new state is much more rural, and more... well, Southern, culturally speaking. Unsurprisingly, it has one of the highest Black VAP shares, behind only MS and PT. Back when the White vote in the Deep South was less overwhelmingly Republican, this was enough to make it a reasonably competitive state, allowing Clinton to carry it twice. Its Republican trend has been pretty steady since 1996, however, and since 2000 its PVI has always been over R+10. With T***pism seemingly playing well in the rural South, this is unlikely to change anytime soon.

Capital: Macon

House Seats (1963) 9
House Seats (2013) 9

VAP Demographics: 60% White, 33% Black

PVI 2008: R+16
PVI 2012: R+14
PVI 2016: R+17

Congressional Representation: If Democrats couldn't win either of the last two Senate races in RL Georgia, they certainly wouldn't in this Georgia either. In the House, the VRA should reasonably require three districts with African-American majorities or strong pluralities. The other 6 are obviously Titanium-R.

Local Government: By the same token, if Kemp won the real GA in 2018, he would have won this GA easily (in fact, he won it by nearly 15 points). Similarly, Republicans in the legislature would probably not have felt compelled to re-gerrymander their maps to protect their majority in 2018. Under the current map, they hold 45 House seats out of the 63 or 64 that cover this state.


Chattahoochee

Conversely, this state encompasses the Atlanta metropolitan area, along with Georgia's Northern Appalachian tip. Must of RL Georgia's demographic boom originates from this part of the state, as Atlanta has grown to become one of America's largest economic and cultural hubs. While less Black than GA, CH is also less White, with ethnicities of more recent extraction like Hispanic and Asians are far more prevalent. It comes as no surprise that this urbanized, diverse and economically dynamic state has proven fertile grounds for Democrats in this political era. Hillary Clinton came tantalizingly close to winning it in 2016, missing the mark by less than half a point (the very Republican Appalachian North made all the difference for T***p). Historically, however, this is a stark reversal from the traditional pattern. With a few obvious anomalies (like 1964, where CH went for LBJ while the Deep-Southern GA supported Goldwater), CH was usually the more Republican of the two states - for example, Bill Clinton never managed to carry it. It was only in 2004 that the gap reversed itself - and even then, CH remained solidly Republican until 2016 came along. While Republicans should be nervous about this state going the same way as KG or even CP, it's not nearly there yet, and trends are not destiny.

Capital: Atlanta

House Seats (1963) 8
House Seats (2013) 16

VAP Demographics: 58% White, 27% Black

PVI 2008: R+10
PVI 2012: R+10
PVI 2016: R+3

Congressional Representation: I've assigned CH to classes 1 (2018) and 2 (2014). The latter is guaranteed to be in Republican hands (before you ask, no, Jim Martin would not have won there in 2008, not even in the first round). The former, however, would probably have given rise to one of the closest Senate races in the country, no doubt attracting a strong Democratic challenger and a ton of campaign money on both sides. It's hard to predict how such a race would have ultimately gone down, but the closest parallel we have is probably Arizona. Since CH is even more of a swing state than AZ at this point, I can see the Democrat pulling ahead there. As for the House, I fully expect Republicans to gerrymander the hell out of the district map, but I can't see them left with more than 10 seats after the 2018 blue wave, and possibly just 9.

Local Government: Abrams defeats Kemp! In this fictional state, at least. Winning by 5 points, she would even avoid a runoff. It's possibly that the local GOP might have run a stronger candidate than Kemp, but even then, I doubt it would have made a difference. In all likelihood (and setting aside massive butterflies), she would be the governor right now. Democrats would also have a decent chance of flipping at least one of the two legislative houses. Under the current (highly gerrymandered) House map, they come a few seats short of a majority. It's certainly possible that Republicans kept control of both houses, but a split legislature is also fairly plausible.

Very cool! How does Chattahoochee vote in 2020 and the 2021 runoffs?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is the House intentionally much bigger in this TL?

Yes, 800 seats total (although that includes DC and Puerto Rico's population).

I kind of wonder, what apportionment would look like if you kept 435 or had a number like 650. Though that's outside the scope of the main segment of this project in any case.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very cool! How does Chattahoochee vote in 2020 and the 2021 runoffs?

Biden won Chattahoochee by 6.3 points (making it not just a flip but a PVI flip as well - it's now 2 points to the left of the country as a whole) and lost Georgia by 12.5 points. Meanwhile Warnock won CH by 8.5 points and lost GA by 11.4, widening the divide even more. I don't have Ossoff's race but I would assume he was slightly behind Warnock in both.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is the House intentionally much bigger in this TL?

Yes, 800 seats total (although that includes DC and Puerto Rico's population).

I kind of wonder, what apportionment would look like if you kept 435 or had a number like 650. Though that's outside the scope of the main segment of this project in any case.

Feel free to run your own calculations, if you're so inclined. The main upshot though is that with a 435-seat House you'll end up with the vast majority of states getting between 3 and 6 seats. The main reason I doubled the House's size is because I felt that that range was too low for population differences to be accurately reflected.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyway Texas is next! It's gonna take a little longer than the others, since it's 6 states instead of 2, but it should be ready in a day or two.

[GAinDC]

Very cool! How does Chattahoochee vote in 2020 and the 2021 runoffs?

Biden won Chattahoochee by 6.3 points (making it not just a flip but a PVI flip as well - it's now 2 points to the left of the country as a whole) and lost Georgia by 12.5 points. Meanwhile Warnock won CH by 8.5 points and lost GA by 11.4, widening the divide even more. I don't have Ossoff's race but I would assume he was slightly behind Warnock in both.

Very nice, thanks!! Yes, I imagine Ossoff's race was slightly narrower but not by much. This exercise is also a reminder that there are plenty of Dems in rural Georgia.

Do you have the numbers for 2022 Sen/Gov?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very cool! How does Chattahoochee vote in 2020 and the 2021 runoffs?

Biden won Chattahoochee by 6.3 points (making it not just a flip but a PVI flip as well - it's now 2 points to the left of the country as a whole) and lost Georgia by 12.5 points. Meanwhile Warnock won CH by 8.5 points and lost GA by 11.4, widening the divide even more. I don't have Ossoff's race but I would assume he was slightly behind Warnock in both.

Very nice, thanks!! Yes, I imagine Ossoff's race was slightly narrower but not by much. This exercise is also a reminder that there are plenty of Dems in rural Georgia.

Do you have the numbers for 2022 Sen/Gov?

I tried to collect the data for 2022 Sen but the data for it is f**ked up in a way that makes it difficult for me to extract (probably the result of including both main election and runoff data in the same file). Hopefully Dave will fix it at some point.

[GAinDC]

Very cool! How does Chattahoochee vote in 2020 and the 2021 runoffs?

Biden won Chattahoochee by 6.3 points (making it not just a flip but a PVI flip as well - it's now 2 points to the left of the country as a whole) and lost Georgia by 12.5 points. Meanwhile Warnock won CH by 8.5 points and lost GA by 11.4, widening the divide even more. I don't have Ossoff's race but I would assume he was slightly behind Warnock in both.

Very nice, thanks!! Yes, I imagine Ossoff's race was slightly narrower but not by much. This exercise is also a reminder that there are plenty of Dems in rural Georgia.

Do you have the numbers for 2022 Sen/Gov?

I tried to collect the data for 2022 Sen but the data for it is f**ked up in a way that makes it difficult for me to extract (probably the result of including both main election and runoff data in the same file). Hopefully Dave will fix it at some point.

Oh yeah, I noticed that. It’s accurate here: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state2.php?fips=13&year=2022&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=3

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very cool! How does Chattahoochee vote in 2020 and the 2021 runoffs?

Biden won Chattahoochee by 6.3 points (making it not just a flip but a PVI flip as well - it's now 2 points to the left of the country as a whole) and lost Georgia by 12.5 points. Meanwhile Warnock won CH by 8.5 points and lost GA by 11.4, widening the divide even more. I don't have Ossoff's race but I would assume he was slightly behind Warnock in both.

Very nice, thanks!! Yes, I imagine Ossoff's race was slightly narrower but not by much. This exercise is also a reminder that there are plenty of Dems in rural Georgia.

Do you have the numbers for 2022 Sen/Gov?

I tried to collect the data for 2022 Sen but the data for it is f**ked up in a way that makes it difficult for me to extract (probably the result of including both main election and runoff data in the same file). Hopefully Dave will fix it at some point.

Oh yeah, I noticed that. It’s accurate here: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state2.php?fips=13&year=2022&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=3

Nope, if you check out the county data it's all doubled up, like on the main page.

[GAinDC]

Very cool! How does Chattahoochee vote in 2020 and the 2021 runoffs?

Biden won Chattahoochee by 6.3 points (making it not just a flip but a PVI flip as well - it's now 2 points to the left of the country as a whole) and lost Georgia by 12.5 points. Meanwhile Warnock won CH by 8.5 points and lost GA by 11.4, widening the divide even more. I don't have Ossoff's race but I would assume he was slightly behind Warnock in both.

Very nice, thanks!! Yes, I imagine Ossoff's race was slightly narrower but not by much. This exercise is also a reminder that there are plenty of Dems in rural Georgia.

Do you have the numbers for 2022 Sen/Gov?

I tried to collect the data for 2022 Sen but the data for it is f**ked up in a way that makes it difficult for me to extract (probably the result of including both main election and runoff data in the same file). Hopefully Dave will fix it at some point.

Oh yeah, I noticed that. It’s accurate here: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state2.php?fips=13&year=2022&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=3

Nope, if you check out the county data it's all doubled up, like on the main page.

Ahhh, bummer

[Antonio the Sixth]

At last, we come to the Lone Star State! And what better way to honor it than to split it into the maximum amount of states it's legally allowed to be split into. The 6-way split actually works really well here, and uncovers some stark regional patterns. However, as 6 is a lot and there's a lot to say about many of these states, I'll have to split this into two posts. For today, enjoy the three states carved out of its Eastern portion of the state, including its two largest metropolitan areas.


Texas

This is the earliest area of Anglo settlement in the state, as well as the most traditionally "Southern" one (tellingly, it's the only one of the six states where Black people outnumber Hispanics). It was quite friendly turf for Democrats for a long time, owing not only to its Solid South ancestry but to the long shadow of LBJ's favorite son effect, which likely carried the state for JFK in 1960, held Goldwater comfortably at bay in 1964, and even allowed HHH to come out ahead of a competitive 3-way race against Nixon and Wallace (39-31-31). Carter also won it easily in 1976, and only narrowly lost it in 1980. Most shocking of all, Clinton won it in 1992. Let me actually include the map here, as it's a notable showcase of the last time a now Titanium R state was competitive:



Clinton prevailed over Bush by just 1 point (with Perot earning a respectable 22.4%) but looking solely at the map, you'd actually expect him to have won more comfortably, by 5 or 10 point. That's right, back in the 90s it looks like the Democratic voter base still skewed rural over here. Looking at the most populous counties, Jefferson voted for Clinton by 20 points, but it was the exception: McLennan, Smith, Brazos and Gregg all voted for Bush (the former by 3 points, the other 3 by around 18). So all told, the mid-sized cities in the state are were the main force keeping the state competitive for Bush, and largely also allowed Dole to prevail four years later. Truly a different era in US politics.

Either way, while TX Democrats seem to have largely survived the post-Civil Rights realignment, they were absolutely bodied by the modern political realignment. Over the late 90s, 00s and 10s, the state zoomed rapidly to the right, going from a narrow Clinton win to a narrow Dole win 27- then 33-point blowouts by Dubya, to Obama losing to Romney by over 40 points. Since then, the margin has remained stable around this staggering level. This has put TX in the same league as Wyoming as far as Titanium R states, with the two locked in a fierce competition for the spot of second-most Titanium R state in the country.

Capital: This area is really devoid of cities of any repute (aside from the infamous Waco, which is too far West to be a good fit). The closest we get is probably Tyler, so let's go with that.

House Seats (1963): 7
House Seats (2013): 7

VAP Demographics (2010): 69% White, 16% Black, 13% Hispanic

PVI 2008: R+42
PVI 2012: R+45
PVI 2016: R+47
PVI 2020: R+48

Congressional Representation: TX inherits the original state's Senate seats, and in fact might be the most natural place for both Cornyn and Cruz to run in (they're both from Houston but I doubt they'd do very well there). For the House, unless the VRA is interpreted to mandate a Black opportunity seat (which would be quite a challenge to draw - Tim, if you're so inclined feel free to try) it's an easy 7-0 Republican delegation.

Local Government: Easy R trifecta with supermajorities. The only area that seems to have any Democratic strength at the local level is Jefferson County, on TX's far Southern tip (I guess it's fitting that even in the most Titanium R area the only place Democrats have any shot is on a coast), but it made up just about 8% of the state's vote, so we could actually see >90% Republican control here.


Dallas

As its name suggests, this state encompasses the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area, the largest in the state and the historical capital of the oil industry. Given this background, it's not too surprising that it was a very Republican-friendly state for most of its history. Since 1960, only two Democratic presidential candidates managed to carry it. One was LBJ, unsurprisingly, but the other was... Joe Biden four years ago. Clearly, muh trendz have swept over this state pretty dramatically in a short time span. Back in the 2000s, Dubya won the state by over 20 points. Obama cut McCain's margin down to just 9 points, but then lost to Romney by 13. It was only Hillary who finally put the state in play, only losing by 4 points in 2016, before Biden flipped that into a 3-point win. The meteoric rise in Democratic fortunes here is one of the main reasons why IRL TX has become tantalizingly within reach, and in this alternative scenario Biden's victory does in fact make a dramatic change in the electoral map for Dems. Still, this flip shouldn't be overstated. DS is still a swing state and perhaps even an R-leaning one, given the way local politics tend to lag presidential results.

Capital: Dallas, duh.

House Seats (1963): 8
House Seats (2013): 16 (+2 in 2023)

VAP Demographics (2010): 54% White, 24% Hispanic, 15% Black

PVI 2008: R+16
PVI 2012: R+17
PVI 2016: R+7
PVI 2020: R+1

Congressional Representation: O'Rourke beat Cruz by 4.5 points in 2018, so it seems the state was ripe for the picking at the Senatorial level. Of course, it's possible that the GOP would have a less damaged incumbent than Cruz, but it's also possible the seat might be open. Plus, there is a strong local candidate in Colin Allred, so I'm going to give this seat to the Democrats. The other, which was last up in 2022, has probably stayed in Republican hands. For the House, there is a very wide range of possible outcomes here. If Republicans managed to hold on to a trifecta, they might have enough wiggle room to keep a 11R-7D or 10R-8D delegation. A fair map would probably yield something close to a tie, but with a lot of marginal seats that could swing either way. Hard to make a prediction without looking at specific maps.

Local Government: Abbott survived by 2 points here in 2022, so I assume an incumbent better suited to the state would probably win by a margin similar to Kemp in GA. There's a decent chance of at least one branch of the legislature having flipped in 2018, though, which might have allowed for fair maps to be in place post-2020 (although it's also possible the R trifecta was restored in 2020). Post-2022, I'd definitely expect narrow Republican majorities in both houses, though the trends must seem pretty ominous for the GOP.


Galveston

The other big Texan metropolis, Houston, gets a state around it, named after Galveston Bay which is its more distinctive feature. Despite the distance between the two cities, much of what I've said about Dallas also applies to Galveston: its presidential voting record is identical to Dallas, all Republican except for 1964 and 2020. It was however traditionally a few points more friendly to Democrats (although this gap has fluctuated wildly, from over 10 points in 1960, 1972 and 1984, to 1-3 points in more recent elections). 2020 was the first year to flip this pattern, with Biden winning Dallas by 3.4 but Galveston by only 0.5. GV is also significantly less White than DS, with almost a third of Latino voters back in 2010. This might explain Biden's somewhat disappointing performance there in 2020, but other trends are still putting significant wind on Democrats' sails.

Capital: Houston

House Seats (1963): 7
House Seats (2013): 15 (+2 in 2023)

VAP Demographics (2010): 43% White, 32% Hispanic, 17% Black

PVI 2008: R+16
PVI 2012: R+16
PVI 2016: R+4
PVI 2020: R+4

Congressional Representation: Galveston skipped 2018 for the Senate, which was probably Dems' best shot. There is a chance a Democrat could have won in 2020, but I doubt they would have defeated a reasonably popular incumbent. In the House, Republicans' hands might be more tied here gerrymandering-wise, given the need to reserve seats for Black and Hispanic voters. A strict adherence to demographics would require those groups to have realistic shots of victory in half the State's seats, although it's unclear if the Courts would force such a reading. Either way, I can imagine Democrats have a floor of at least 8 seats in the state nowadays, with perhaps one or two more being in play under a fair map. Still a lot of uncertainty though.

Local Government: Similarly to Dallas, Democrats might have won control of one or more legislative houses in 2018, but that control would have been precarious, and it's unclear whether they'd have the ability to stop a gerrymander come 2020 (the Hispanic shift to the right complicates things further as well). The Governorship also probably stayed Republican, but Democrats are bound to come back in full force come 2026.


And that's it for today. I'll get to the three Western states soon, I promise.

[Sol]

Happy to see this back!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

House Seats (1963) 7
House Seats (2013) 7

VAP Demographics (2010) 69% White, 16% Black, 13% Hispanic

PVI 2008: R+42
PVI 2012: R+45
PVI 2016: R+47
PVI 2020: R+48

Congressional Representation: TX inherits the original state's Senate seats, and in fact might be the most natural place for both Cornyn and Cruz to run in (they're both from Houston but I doubt they'd do very well there). For the House, unless the VRA is interpreted to mandate a Black opportunity seat (which would be quite a challenge to draw - Tim, if you're so inclined feel free to try) it's an easy 7-0 Republican delegation.

Challenge accepted. I'll get to drawing when the other Western ones are done.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Challenge accepted. I'll get to drawing when the other Western ones are done.

Here we go!


Alamo

As suggested here a while back, let's name this central Texan state, including its historical capital Austin as well as San Antonio, after the fort that must not be forgotten. With two large and historically progressive (unlike Dallas and Houston which used to be heavily Republican) cities, a diverse ethnic makeup, and less Titanium R rural turf, this is a state Democrats have always had a shot in. Alamo stayed loyal to Dems throughout the 60s and went for Carter in 1976, then flipped to Reagan four years later and stayed Republican throughout the 1980s. In 1992 Clinton narrowly carried it (actually even more narrowly than he carried TX, shockingly), but Dole flipped it in 1996, and it voted for Bush by double-digit margins. Trends started catching up in 2008, when Obama came within half a percentage point of carrying the state, but it was Hillary who finally flipped it in 2016, making Alamo into the elusive Romney-Clinton state. Biden then expanded her 3-point win into a 9-point one, putting the state squarely into the Lean D column and perhaps even approaching Likely D. This actually puts Alamo in a similar place as OTL Virginia (or King, if you want to stay within this scenario), although its trend being more recent means there's more likely to be a lag downballot.

Capital: Let's keep it at Austin, though San Antonio would work just as well.

House Seats (1963): 6
House Seats (2013): 11 (+2 in 2023)

VAP Demographics (2010): 51% White, 37% Hispanic

PVI 2008: R+8
PVI 2012: R+10
PVI 2016: D+1
PVI 2020: D+5

Congressional Representation: AM elected its Senators in 2018 and 2022. O'Rourke won there by a whopping 12 points in 2018, and while he wouldn't be a candidate in this scenario, the seat would still seem ripe for the picking. So that's at least one seat in the Dem column. The other seat is where things get interesting. Hillary did carry the state in 2016, and that year is famous because all states voted the same way for Senate and President. If AM were to follow the pattern, there would be a Dem incumbent in 2022 who'd probably be favored for reelection. That said, we should probably not make too much of the pattern, and the right Republican should have been counted as the favorite in a state that had voted for the party since 1996. So I'm gonna count one seat as Democratic and the other as a tossup. As for the House, Democrats have probably been able to pick up a lot of seats in redistricting, and at this point I could easily see them holding 9 of its 13 seats. The rural areas outside of Austin and San Antonio would provide a solid floor for the GOP, but everything else if fertile ground for Dems.

Local Government: Abbott won the state by a hair in 2018 (when facing a rather perfunctory challenge from Lupe Valdez, and while Dan Patrick lost the state by 8 points and Ken Paxton by 10 at the same time) but lost it by 6 points to O'Rourke in 2022. It seems clear which way the wind is blowing here, and while the right Republican might have managed to hold the state, the money should be on Dems being favored to hold the governorship. Similarly, the trends are strong enough that it's hard to see Democrats not flipping at least one house of the state legislature, and unlike in DS and GV they'd almost certainly be able to hold it in 2020. This means fair maps are guaranteed for this decade, and are certain to only entrench Democratic power further.


Rio Grande

Here we come to perhaps one of the most unique states in this fictional version of the nation. With over three quarters of the voting age population in 2010 being Hispanic/Latino, Rio Grande's political culture would be unlike any other state's, and would likely baffle, outrage or fascinate unfamiliar onlookers. It is interesting to see how RG's political class would handle its large border with Mexico, and how the local population's conflicted feelings on recent immigrants would translate policy-wise. These questions are for people more versed in the local culture than myself to answer. All I can do here is crunch some numbers, and what they say is pretty clear: RG has consistently been the most Democratic part of the state, sticking with Democrats through thick and thin. It gave over two thirds of its vote to favorite son LBJ, and still an absolute majority to HHH, stuck with Carter in 1980 and with Dukakis in 1988. There were only three times its support wavered: the 1972 and 1984 GOPslides, unsurprisingly, but much more impressively 2004, when Dubya managed to prevail over Kerry by just 0.5 points. This impressive win would no doubt have added to the luster of Bush's victory, and definitely crowned him as the ultimate Texas Republican. So let's zoom in to see how he did it:



As expected, Kerry still managed to win the heavily Hispanic Southern tip of the state as well as the key city of El Paso on the far West, but his margins there were anemic even compared to Gore four years earlier (who had won the state by 8 points). Bush managed to rack up the margin in the Whiter, more rural and inland parts of the state, as well as the Northeastern Gulf Coast around Corpus Christi, but also impressively flipped Cameron County (home of Brownsville). This is no doubt a performance modern Republicans will seek to repeat.

They might get a chance to do so in the coming years. After trending rapidly to the Democrats throughout the Obama years and becoming nearly Safe D, RG took a sharp turn to the right in 2020, with Biden winning it by a shockingly anemic 10 points. Much has been made of Biden's weakness among Hispanics, but its implications would be drawn in particularly sharp relief here, and it remains to be seen how far these trends can go. If the state were to be close this year, we might be seeing a radical shift in local politics.

Capital: Laredo seems like the best compromise between centrality and population.

House Seats (1963): 6
House Seats (2013): 8

VAP Demographics (2010): 77% Hispanic, 19% White

PVI 2008: D+13
PVI 2012: D+18
PVI 2016: D+22
PVI 2020: D+6

Congressional Representation: RG's last Senate elections were in 2020 and 2022, both of which might have spelled danger for Democrats. In 2020, Biden's victory, however anemic, would probably have propelled Dems to victory if they had an incumbent or the seat was open (on the off chance a Republican won there in 2014, they might well have snuck by). In 2022, this could have been a golden opportunity for a GOP pickup, but given that the GOP squandered all its golden opportunities that year I wouldn't make too much of it. Overall, between RG and AM I expect Dems to hold 3 of their 4 collective seats, but it's a tossup whether the one GOP Senator is from one or the other. For the House, meanwhile, Democrats have probably gone down from holding 6 or 7 seats back in 2018 to being reduced to 5 or even 4 (though given downballot lag, 5 is more likely).

Local Government: O'Rourke won the state in 2022, but only by a meager 6 points. Given that the state almost certainly has a Democratic incumbent, I would expect them to do better than that barring a Sisolak-tier f**kup. The state legislature too has probably remained in Dem hands (Democrats hold 14 out of maybe 19 or 20 seats in the Texas House), so for now Dems are probably in the clear. We'll see what the future holds though...


Llanos

We end, a bit anticlimactically, with a state whose politics are rather easy to summarize. Llanos, named after the Spanish name for the plains that characterize its geography, is pretty much as Titanium R as it gets. Since 1996, it has consistently been the most Republican state in the country, putting even the likes of Wyoming and nearby Texas to shame. Recent Republican candidates have polled in the high 70s (McCain fell just slightly below at 74.6%) while Democrats have been stuck in the low 20s. You have to go back to 1996 to even find a Democrat winning a single county in it (though if you want to extend it to gubernatorial elections, Bill White randomly won Foard County in 2010). What puts LN over TX as far as Republican partisanship goes is the fact that it lacks the ancestral Democratic tradition found further East: while LBJ himself managed to crack 60% there in 1964, he wasn't able to carry the state for JFK as a running mate or for HHH as the incumbent president. There was only one other time when a Democratic presidential candidate managed to prevail here, and that was 1976. Carter's strength in the Southern Plains was made apparent with his near-win in Oklahoma, but even more impressive was his performance on the other side of the border. Let's take a look:



Looking just at the map, you'd be forgiven for thinking Carter won in a blowout, but fact, his winning margin was just 0.14 points, making LN the closest state that year. Once again, then, we are transported back to a time where Republicans found their strength in urban areas, and Democrats in the open countryside. LN's major cities (such as they are) all show up in blue on this map, even when they're surrounded by red: Lubbock, Amarillo, Abilene, Midland, Odessa and San Angelo all seem to have voted for Ford by solid to overwhelming margins. Meanwhile, the only somewhat populous area Carter seems to have won is Wichita, by just 7 points. On the other hand, his performance in the state's vast rural expanse was nothing short of remarkable, especially in the Eastern and Central parts of the state. Ford's rural strength seems to have been concentrated in the far North (probably the most Plains-like in political culture) and South of the state. Suffice to say, we are unlikely to see a map like this again: even if lightning were to strike and Dems somehow won LN, their areas of strength would probably look more like Ford's than Carter's.

Capital: Lubbock

House Seats (1963): 8
House Seats (2013): 6

VAP Demographics (2010): 68% White, 25% Hispanic

PVI 2008: R+57
PVI 2012: R+61
PVI 2016: R+59
PVI 2020: R+60

Congressional Representation: Nothing to see here. 2 Republican Senators an 6 Republican representatives. I don't think it's possible to draw a Dem-leaning or even swingy district here even with extreme gerrymandering (another challenge for Tim if he's interested).

Local Government: There isn't a single Dem-held state legislative seat in this area. It's possible there might be a few given a larger state legislature, but it's also not impossible to see a Hawaii Senate style situation where at least the upper house is all-Republican. In a context like this, it's quite likely you would see heavy factional splits within the local GOP, with perhaps a business wing and a MAGA wing jockeying for control of local affairs.