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Not in the slightest bit surprising. The Republican Party is just a domestic terrorist organization now, openly gleeful at the prospect of using the pardon power whenever they can to put murderers and felons on the street - as long as they are MAGA. trump is openly talking about doing this with all of the J6 terrorists.

It's just taking another page from the Jim Crow South.

The OP picked the wrong guy to jerk off to.

Unquestionably New Zealand - even its climate is by far the most similar to that of the UK, although of course it’s still very different (and the presence of a much larger than usual ‘indigenous’ minority group is actually a point of greater difference from the UK than for the other three countries).

After NZ  I think the rest of the  ranking is fairly straightforward, with Australia being the most similar and the United States being the least.

30-35.

*Cries*

The only good thjng about the Trump appointees is that they aren't Alito or Thomas.

Don't give him any advice.

Trump's campaign being over-confident and incompetent is necessary for Biden to have a chance.

Discuss your thoughts and opinions below.

That does not take into account PA/MI/WI though. Really the EC advantage is almost entirely based on the margins on Midwestern/Rust Belt Swing States

Exactly this (plus NV/AZ/GA too).

It would be possible for the EC advantage to shift back toward Trump again.

No it isn’t.

In 2020 very few people expected the EC advantage to shift nearly an entire point towards Trump.

Not really. Most serious pundits thought Trump’s EC advantage would be significantly larger than it ended up being.

Remember that people thought Biden would win the PV by a lot more than he did in reality, whereas the eventual EC result was very close to the actual state-by-state breakdown that people expected.

I saw many predictions where Biden was winning the NPV by 7 or even 9 points but Biden was still under 300 EVs. If you’d told them Biden would only carry the PV by 4 points in the end, many of them would’ve taken that to spell certain doom for him.

The election results in places like MD, IL, NY, and especially CA were way closer than people thought they would be. Trump also outperformed expectations in safe red states, just not to the same extent. However the 2020 “red wave” didn’t really reach the swing states at all (aside from exceptions like WI), since Biden’s campaign did a good job of targeting the real battlegrounds.

What percent of Romney-Clinton/Biden voters does Hogan end up getting?

About two thirds I'd assume. They are ground zero of his crossover appeal.

It's not 2014 anymore though. And these are the types of voters who would recognize what an extra Republican number in the Senate means.

I mean, what share of Biden voters do you think Hogan will get? I personally think it will be between 15% (on a bad night) and 25% (on a great night). And voters who were republicans not so long ago are probably going to be voting for Hogan at far higher rates than the average Biden voter.

Oh by the way: Hogan backs codifying Roe v. Wade, calls himself ‘pro-choice’.
He's really trying to get that democratic crossover vote.

Regarding Hogan's latest abortion comments, it should be noted that his past actions do not support them (for example, as governor, he vetoed legislation expanding abortion access in Maryland, and he also didn't think codifying abortion rights in MD's state constitution was necessary). Thus, he can still be attacked on that front as a flip-flopper, and that he would probably "fall in line" with his party on this and other issues should he enter the Senate.

Yeah, Krystal Ball is definitely NOT alright and 100% harmful to democrats electoral prospects. At BEST she a useful idiot for the right. Like 95% of the time she spends criticizing Biden and democrats with the remaining 5% spend on Trump criticism.

"Left wing" youtubers convincing gullible young people that they should support "mainstream" democrats is a big problem for democrats. "Accelerationism" is the most idiotic idea ever.