VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

From the looks of it, undecideds are going for Northam which will ultimately hand him the Governor's mansion. Gillespie's surge was really because the Republicans were coming home but now we are seeing Ralph stabilizing. In the end, I believe it will be Northam +6 or +8.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah, I'm growing more confident that Northam will win. He was shaky in the past week but the polls have shown he is stabilizing, better yet, they are showing that he is winning undecideds. Plus this is a Democrat state, folks.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Rip Gillespie

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wow. Northam win.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

A story going around social media is Northam is being helped by downballot races

I believe it. Trump and the GOP have been losing special elections when it comes to state legislature seats. Northam is going to win this.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Trump won it 59%-34%.

Excellent!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I was intially predicting a Northam win of + 5-7 but after hearing that it’s raining in some areas I think the race might be a tossup now.

From what I am hearing from those on the ground, the weather is hitting Trump-heavy areas and turnout hasn't been great there. Turnout has been high in NOVA and the cities.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This guy *supposedly* posted these same polls last year and got Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania right https://mobile.twitter.com/mrbeercrusher/status/927951887369981959

Here’s the tweet showing trump up https://mobile.twitter.com/mrbeercrusher/status/796079698501599232

Now I don’t think this guy is real since he says Phil Murphy is only up 4.
Still he could be right.

Probably not. He cited an "exit poll" that was supposedly released 6 hours before the polls closed and didn't cite anything. And the map he gave us is the map showing Clinton winning the state by 5.2 points. He's going off of # of counties like the typical Trump propagandist does.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Y'all I've been hearing nothing but good news for Northam. High turnout in cities and NOVA with decent weather. Depressing turnout in SWVA with crappy weather. I feel like he's going to pull off a 6 point win tonight.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Y'all I've been hearing nothing but good news for Northam. High turnout in cities and NOVA with decent weather. Depressing turnout in SWVA with crappy weather. I feel like he's going to pull off a 6 point win tonight.

The weather in NOVA is not exactly decent right now lol, but it’s not bad enough to affect turnout significantly.

Yeah sorry about my post, you're right. It's not great but it doesn't seem to be depressing turnout. I meant to say it seems to be worse in Trump-Gillespie areas and seems to actually be hurting turnout there. This is just what I have been hearing. So far it seems like it will be a good night for Virginia democrats.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Oh lord. Gillespie has been using Trump tactics but has been trying to distance himself from him. Donald is probably using that "Disrespecting Vets" bullcrap against Northam... even though Ralph is a vet.
I imagine this must make Ed's stomach churn.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Awesome news for Ralph!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yep. Northam is going to win this. Turnout in democratic areas is going to be much higher than it was in 2013.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Voted in Virginia Beach around 1PM around 800 out of 5,000 in my precinct had voted so far, no lines was in and out.

I'm guessing that's more good news for Northam... seeing as Trump won the county.

The Republicans just aren't energized today...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Voted in Virginia Beach around 1PM around 800 out of 5,000 in my precinct had voted so far, no lines was in and out.

I'm guessing that's more good news for Northam... seeing as Trump won the county.

I think your reading too much into these turnout reports. If 2016 taught us anything, its that turnout reports come back to bite you in the ass.

Not really... I lost confidence in Clinton's chances of winning Pennsylvania when I saw turnout reports coming from various towns across Western PA. Turns out (lol) my suspicions were right.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Any turnout reports from Alexandria and/or Loudon county?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Any turnout reports from Alexandria and/or Loudon county?

"As of noon, Alexandria has 35.9% turnout (including absentees). Maury is leading the way at 42%. Patrick Henry is at 19%." https://twitter.com/justindotnet/status/927952018882351104

Also rainy and miserable. Think the movie The Mist.

According to a reply to that tweet, the turnout at the same time in 2013 was much lower.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Powhatan county at 48% turnout

Good or bad for Gillespie?
I knows it’s ultra republican but is that high turnout?

Pretty good

That’s good since central Virginia south of Prince William county to chesterfield then out east to Virginia Beach will decide the race.

Lol ok

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Kind of off topic but does anyone know where I can obtain a Northam bumper sticker? I collect campaign memorabilia, specifically bumper stickers, and I really liked his logo.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

More on Arlington...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So at this time there have already been more votes casted in 2017 than 2013?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

More on Arlington...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So at this time there have already been more votes casted in 2017 than 2013?

Yeah, Arlington has surpassed 2013 numbers already and it isn't even 4 yet. I have a sister up there, and they usually see a rush of voters after 5 pm.

So this is encouraging news for Democrats.

Wow, that is utterly devastating for Gillespie. There are only 3.5 hours left of voting.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

"At this pace Ralph will be relying on the 35000 absentee edge alone by 5 pm.  It’s trending tighter as day goes on."

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/927999269851815939

D insider not impressed with turnout so far.

Is this "D insider" even looking at the actual statistics?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Have a bad feeling think Gillespie narrowly wins.

Me too. The rain has f***ed everything up.

Wasn't it looking like the rain was depressing turnout in the heavily R parts of the state though?

Yeah that's what I thought. I heard it wasn't depressing turnout in NOVA though.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah I don't think I'm going to rely on the guy on Twitter that went from wow Northam is going to win by the biggest margin since 1985 to he's relying on just absentees now over the course of a few hours.

His twitter handle is very accurate.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah I don't think I'm going to rely on the guy on Twitter that went from wow Northam is going to win by the biggest margin since 1985 to he's relying on just absentees now over the course of a few hours.

Him also claiming to know the margin from the absentees seems like junk

Agree 100%. He went from somewhere like Northam +100K to Northam +65K to Northam +35K in three hours. He's laughable.