TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ahhhhhhhhhhh

Just saying, an open TN race may be more competitive than a Cruz-held TX race.

Maybe, but who can Democrats run? And I'd wager the open governor's seat is more appealing to strong candidates because it's more winnable than an open Senate seat.

Easy answer is you push Fitzhugh or Dean out of the gov race and into the senate one—avoid the cost of a primary, decent shot for both now that it's an open seat.

We need some primaries to build interest in the party, have more opportunities to get their name recognition up.

Does James Mackler have a chance, or is he just Some Dude? 

[GeorgiaModerate]

I know it has not been mentionned but what about Tipper Gore, Karenna Gore or Kristin Gore for the Democrats?

Karenna lives in NY, Kristin in LA.

And Tipper?

According to Wikipedia, she lives in Santa Barbara, CA.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I know it has not been mentionned but what about Tipper Gore, Karenna Gore or Kristin Gore for the Democrats?

Karenna lives in NY, Kristin in LA.

And Tipper?

According to Wikipedia, she lives in Santa Barbara, CA.

And yet, if I'm not wrong, Carly Fiorina lived in Virginia but she still ran for Senator in California in 2010.

Possibly not the best example to use in encouraging someone to run.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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https://twitter.com/SenBobCorker/status/917045348820049920

Holy Crap...

Can you imagine this kind of interchange occurring between any other modern President and a Senator of their own party?  I really can't.

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Mason-Dixon poll

Trump approval: 51/42 (+9)
Haslam approval: 57/30 (+27)
Alexander approval: 44/42 (+2)
Corker approval: 40/48 (-8)

@RINO Tom:

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These two items taken together imply that Alexander's approval has also fallen significantly.

[GeorgiaModerate]

RIP James Mackler. Press F to pay respects.

In all seriousness, I liked him, but I would certainly vote for Bredesen if I were able. He actually has a record of winning statewide before, and I don't really like the idea of running randos for statewide office. Mackler has the potential for a great career, but he should start with Congress first, not the Senate.

This.

Even though Bredesen is quite moderate, he is to the left of Manchin and Heitkamp (probably more conservative than Donnelly though), and was a very competent governor. Tennessee has a history of electing competent politicians compared to the rest of the South, anyway (Kefauver, both Gores, and Sasser from the Democrats, and at least Bill Haslam from the Republicans), at least in my opinion.

There's also the "opportunist" argument ("best chance to win!!!1!11!!one11!") too, I guess...

Don't forget Howard Baker.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Mackler out. GOP majority is finished!

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Good news. I hope he runs for a state senate seat or something. I could see him being a good gubernatorial candidate if he waits a cycle or two.

Anyone know where Mackler lives? If he's in TN-05, he'd be a good bet to run when Cooper retires.

Mackler is described as a Nashville attorney, so presumably he does live in TN-05.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm just not buying this.  Over the past few years, we've seen so many Dem+5-10 polls in conservative ancestral Dem states with tons of undecideds that turn into 5-10% Republican wins on election day.

That's true, and in most years I think it would almost certainly be the result in this race.  It's still a rather likely outcome; but given the overall D strength this year, Bredesen's past popularity, and Blackburn's extremism, Bredesen has a legitimate shot.  I'm calling it Lean R: Blackburn has an advantage simply because TN is so very Republican, but neither outcome would surprise me.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's what could help Marsha Blackburn in the senate race in Tennessee against Phil Bredesen : Bredesen's ties with the disgraced Nashville Mayor Megan Barry who was involved in an extramarital affair with her bodyguard.

https://www.nbcnews.com/card/how-nashville-mayor-s-resignation-could-hurt-phil-bredesen-n854111

Or you could just support the experienced governor who governed as center-right instead of supporting a far right ideologue, but I guess not voting on purely party lines is too hard for some people

Center-right? A man like Bredesen who proposed coal mining limits and vetoed allowing guns in bars during his time as governor? The moreover that the Cato Institute, a fiscally conservative institute, rated him only 53 % on overall fiscal policy score, 57 % on spending and 56 % on taxes. All of this falls more within the parameters of a liberal.

http://archive.knoxnews.com/business/bredesen-proposes-coal-mining-limits-ep-410234349-359501841.html/

https://votesmart.org/bill/11521/33476/22392/guns-in-bars#.Ws-3VX_A_IU

https://votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/22392/phil-bredesen#.Ws-4oH_A_IU

TIL Believing drunk people should have limited access to firearms makes you a liberal.

Next thing you know, they won't be wanting drunk people to drive.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Corker won't campaign against Bredesen:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

It would be funny if he gave her something like $5.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not a poll of the race, but favorability numbers for TN-SEN:

Vanderbilt University, April 26-May 8, 1400 RV

Marsha Blackburn 49/38
Phil Bredesen 67/25

Trump job approval: 53/44

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not a poll of the race, but favorability numbers for TN-SEN:

Vanderbilt University, April 26-May 8, 1400 RV

Marsha Blackburn 49/38
Phil Bredesen 67/25

Trump job approval: 53/44

They definitely polled the Senate race, but obviously Blackburn was winning and they didn't want to release that.

Fantastic tinfoil hat.


If a useless, grandstanding far-right congressman beats a very moderate, respected Governor, Tennessee is stupid as hell. Plain and simple. I can't wait until congress is just a bunch of Bernie Sanders & Warren stans vs Marsha Blackburn & Ted Cruz stans. America will go to sh!t if we keep electing terrible & worthless senators.

Yes, they are being unrealistically paranoid.  This is part of Vanderbilt's series of biannual political surveys of the state, in which they poll things like name recognition, favorability, and issue positions.  These surveys typically don't include polling of specific races.  Vanderbilt sometimes does horse-race polling as separate individual polls, not as part of these surveys.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not a poll of the race, but favorability numbers for TN-SEN:

Vanderbilt University, April 26-May 8, 1400 RV

Marsha Blackburn 49/38
Phil Bredesen 67/25

Trump job approval: 53/44

They definitely polled the Senate race, but obviously Blackburn was winning and they didn't want to release that.

Fantastic tinfoil hat.


If a useless, grandstanding far-right congressman beats a very moderate, respected Governor, Tennessee is stupid as hell. Plain and simple. I can't wait until congress is just a bunch of Bernie Sanders & Warren stans vs Marsha Blackburn & Ted Cruz stans. America will go to sh!t if we keep electing terrible & worthless senators.

Yes, they are being unrealistically paranoid.  This is part of Vanderbilt's series of biannual political surveys of the state, in which they poll things like name recognition, favorability, and issue positions.  These surveys typically don't include polling of specific races.  Vanderbilt sometimes does horse-race polling as separate individual polls, not as part of these surveys.

Paranoia implies fear. I am not afraid of losing this race. Just mildly annoyed.

Substitute "suspicious" for paranoid, then.  Your statement implied that the results were being deliberately withheld, when there is no basis for assuming such behavior.  Not polling the Senate race in this survey is entirely consistent with Vanderbilt's past practices, and this is something anyone could verify with a few minutes of Google searches.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Land-Phil Bredesen? 

(I want royalties if Trump uses this.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Bredesen endorsed by Chattanooga Times Free Press

[GeorgiaModerate]

Endorsed in the primary I assume?

No, for the general election.  The headline is "Bredesen is a problem solver, Blackburn a problem maker".

[GeorgiaModerate]

A newspaper endorsement in July? Keep your powder dry, Chattanooga Times Free Press.

Maybe they're just eager because they endorsed nobody in the 2016 Presidential race.  (That is, they explicitly endorsed "none of the above".)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nashville lawyer who introduced Russian operative to the NRA has ties to Blackburn

It's six degrees of treason!

*applause*

[GeorgiaModerate]

I see Blackburn is leading in a new Gravis Poll.... the thought of Blackburn being elected to the Senate is a bit unsettling.

Sounds like a great idea, actually.

Your kid diddler concede yet?

You are one trick pony, right.

Just asking a question

Well, I think you need to practice a new trick.

TBH, I agree with him.  It's getting old. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Guess: Bredesen +2.

It’s Marist, so I’ll guess Bredesen +8.

What is your problem with them? Walker being down by 13 isn't implausible whatsoever.

Sure.

Regardless of that poll's plausibility (and I also lean toward that margin being implausibly large), it doesn't invalidate Marist's other polls or indicate a bias on their part.  Marist actually has a slight R bias (+0.5) according to 538.  They're a very good pollster, but even very good pollsters will get an occasional sample that yields an outlier result. 

(I'm sure MT Treasurer knows all this, and I suspect he's just trying to be annoying.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Apparently Blackburn posted a video of herself surrounded by University of Memphis cheerleaders chanting "Marsha, Marsha, Marsha" on Facebook.  IRS regulations prohibit public universities from endorsing candidates, and the university has requested that the campaign take down the video.

https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/news/local/the-901/2018/09/17/9-01-u-m-asks-blackburn-remove-tigers-marsha-video/1253918002/

Also this bit:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Just saw a Blackburn ad on the national Tennessee-Auburn football telecast.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, if Blackburn is such a solid bet to win, why is Trump in Tennessee to prop her up?

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Trump is a big time extrovert and narcissist who loves doing rallies and traveling across the country to hear adoring fans flock to him as he bashes all the people on his “not very nice” list. This is what fuels him even more than Diet Coke. The amazing thing about Trump is how often people attribute 4D chess strategy to him when 9 times out of 10 he’s just doing what makes him feel good.

Also what Icespear said right above me lol.

Trump may be playing 4D Chess, but unfortunately for him it's a Bridge tournament.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can we knock off the direct appeals to vote for one side or the other, please?  You're not going to change any minds on this forum at this point.