Was Biden favored at any point this year?

[Tekken_Guy]

Was Biden favored at any point this year?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He is fav because he is the inc until he loses and it's a 270 map to 319 we can get any version of 319 of this map that's why it's so silly for polls to keep polling it, it's gonna flip flop everyday


Marist had it Biden 3 now Leger has it Trump 1

[Electric Circus]

If you can't cheat and say that the race has sometimes been as good as even, Trump has had the advantage since last fall.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

I genuinely don’t understand how you can make an argument that Trump isn’t a significant favorite right now.

-He leads the RCP national average- something that he never did in 2016 and 2020.
-He significantly outperformed his final RCP polling average in both 2016 and 2020.
-A 1-2% Biden popular vote win still likely means a Trump Electoral College win.
-Trump leads polling averages in Wisconsin, Michigan, and a large lead in Nevada. Trump could lose PA, MI, and WI, and still win the election if he wins Nevada and the Nebraska district.

There’s no way one could objectively argue Biden is the favorite right now based on the data. No argument.

This assumes polls aren't overestimating Trump like they did for his lackeys in 2022.

I don't buy the argument that polls will underestimate Trump when they are showing him doing better than he probably could in reality.

In 2018 polling didn't underestimate Republicans like 2016, but it happened again in 2020.

Agreed. Although it is possible polls may underestimate Biden now unlike 2020 because he is an incumbent and late-breakers go for the incumbent.

[Steve from Lambeth]

Yes, and at all points. I will continue to say this until and unless the Super Six start looking good enough for Trump for him to be favoured in enough of them.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I genuinely don’t understand how you can make an argument that Trump isn’t a significant favorite right now.

-He leads the RCP national average- something that he never did in 2016 and 2020.
-He significantly outperformed his final RCP polling average in both 2016 and 2020.
-A 1-2% Biden popular vote win still likely means a Trump Electoral College win.
-Trump leads polling averages in Wisconsin, Michigan, and a large lead in Nevada. Trump could lose PA, MI, and WI, and still win the election if he wins Nevada and the Nebraska district.

There’s no way one could objectively argue Biden is the favorite right now based on the data. No argument.

This assumes polls aren't overestimating Trump like they did for his lackeys in 2022.

I don't buy the argument that polls will underestimate Trump when they are showing him doing better than he probably could in reality.

In 2018 polling didn't underestimate Republicans like 2016, but it happened again in 2020.

They kind of did in 2018. Republicans did better in Senate races than they were expected to. It wasn't universal or as cut-and-dry as 2016 and 2020 were.

We'll see how 2024 develops, of course, but more and more over the years polling is looking like a less reliable metric overall.

[Mr. Smith]

The election isn't over yet, so I don't think the phrasing is helpful here.