I'm not so sure the undervaluation of Jean-Marie Le Pen in polls before elections (which was so constant that CSA, believing to be able to correct it, "manipulated" its numbers too much and did a horrible work in 2007...) will be the same for Marine "PanzerGirl".
Her so-called "more classical" stance makes it easier for respondents to acknowledge openly their support for her.
What is more, for 2012, the scene will be very splitted for "outsiders".
Joly is already dead,
Mélenchon is peaking too early,
Besancenot is out,
Villepin, decently, can't be seen as an outsider and will so be only a minor candidate of the mainstream right (see Michel Debré in 1981),
Bayrou's turn came already in 2007.
Only Hulot and Borloo have positionings that may result in real threats.
But Borloo is too messy and drunk to lead a campaign until the end (and even too "weak" to eventually decide to be candidate at all... except if Sarkozy has understood that he SHOULD order Borloo to be candidate
).
Hulot, if he's candidate, will be fragile in a campaign and will have a left-wing Green or a coloured-in-green leftist against him, whoever it is. And Hulot would steal votes from former Bayrou supporters, from abstention and even from centre-right (if Borloo isn't candidate), but not really from the PS or the heart of the Greens.
So, yes, there will be a "surprise", as in every election (maybe Mélenchon if it's DSK; maybe Hulot if he is in and has the massive support of Propaganda - French medias; maybe Borloo if he's candidate and if Karachi affair weakens Sarkozy in a big way). But not enough to prevent a second round UMP-PS.
Sarkozy and the socialist candidate (even if it's a weak or not-so-popular one, i.e. Royal or Hollande) don't have to be afraid by a high level of Marine Le Pen.
And, well, 2002 already occurred, so, now, everybody knows everything must be anticipated
.
As for Fillon, he'd be candidate only if Sarkozy dies before the election (which isn't completely excluded, considering his way of life
).
And even in this case, I'm not so sure members of the UMP would pick him so easily over Copé. Remember Fillon is politically alone.
Copé has the old chiraco-gaullist base and would be able to grasp all the young ambitious sarkozysts (I mean the sarkozysts by interest, not the "mad fans" like Estrosi) and the former DL.
Borloo and other ones have the former centrists and the radicals and "ecologists" of the right.
Fillon isn't even able to gather the old grandees (Juppé and Alliot-Marie), nor the disappointed sarkozysts, who are isolated (Devedjian) or who join Borloo (Jégo, Yade, Lepeltier).
It would only depend on the date of Sarkozy's death.
The longer Copé is UMP general secretary, the stronger he will be against Fillon.
