Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Arizona

[ElectionsGuy]

Two votes. One for a rating (Safe D, Lean R, Toss-Up, etc.) and one for a prediction of who will win (Clinton, Trump, or Other). If you missed one of the votes in previous threads, you can go back and change your vote.

Update/vote in these threads if you haven't already! There's no time limit: Alabama Alaska

Ratings

Safe Clinton: 0
Likely Clinton: 0
Lean Clinton: 0
Toss-Up: 0
Lean Trump: 0
Likely Trump: 3
Safe Trump: 9

Trump: 12
Clinton: 0
Toss-Up: 0

Predictions

Trump: 12
Clinton: 0

Arizona: Lean R, 51-46 Trump. Looks like it should be more competitive than in recent years.

[ElectionsGuy]

Are you averaging all the votes for the results, or...?

(I. E. If it was about 50-50 Lean D/Lean R, would you call it a tossup or whichever had more slightly?)

I take the median response, right now its very close between Lean R and Toss-Up. So if a poll has 50 votes for example, I count 25 votes in from either Safe R and Safe D and wherever that vote is would be the result.

[ElectionsGuy]

If there's no median vote (which can happen if Safe D + Likely D + Lean D + Toss-Up = Lean R + Likely R + Safe R) then I'll take which option has the most amount of votes (Toss-Up in this thread) in the case of a tie.

[ElectionsGuy]

If there's no median vote (which can happen if Safe D + Likely D + Lean D + Toss-Up = Lean R + Likely R + Safe R) then I'll take which option has the most amount of votes (Toss-Up in this thread) in the case of a tie.

Shouldn't you take the option with the least votes in a tie, since that would indicate that that side has more confidence?

I'm struggling to figure out what you mean. If toss-up + all D = lean R + all other R, and lean R has less votes because there are more likely R and Safe R votes than D votes, how does that make Lean R more confident? All it indicates is more people think its strongly Republican than strongly Democratic.

I'm confusing myself. My goodness. Florida is actually tied both numerically and median vote wise between Toss-Up and Lean D, and I legitimately don't know what I'm going to do if it stays like that.

[ElectionsGuy]

If there's no median vote (which can happen if Safe D + Likely D + Lean D + Toss-Up = Lean R + Likely R + Safe R) then I'll take which option has the most amount of votes (Toss-Up in this thread) in the case of a tie.

Shouldn't you take the option with the least votes in a tie, since that would indicate that that side has more confidence?

I'm struggling to figure out what you mean. If toss-up + all D = lean R + all other R, and lean R has less votes because there are more likely R and Safe R votes than D votes, how does that make Lean R more confident? All it indicates is more people think its strongly Republican than strongly Democratic.

I'm confusing myself. My goodness. Florida is actually tied both numerically and median vote wise between Toss-Up and Lean D, and I legitimately don't know what I'm going to do if it stays like that.

that's my point . Imagine a (purely theoretical) state where the vote is like this:

2 Safe D
0 Likely D
3 Lean D
17 Tossup
18 Lean R
3 Likely R
1 Safe R

By your system, this would be categorized under Lean R. However, if two people change from Lean R to Likely R:

2 Safe D
0 Likely D
3 Lean D
17 Tossup
16 Lean R
5 Likely R
1 Safe R

then the race flips to Tossup, even though all movement has been in the R direction. To me it makes more sense to reverse this, so that the move towards R flips it in the opposite direction.

sh**t, that is ed up. Reversing it though would still be discriminatory because two sides are still equal. To make it simpler and easier, I'll just classify it as 'undecided' if there's no median vote and encourage people to break the tie in the next thread.