What popular vote margin would you have guessed with the 2016 electoral map?

[Joe McCarthy Was Right]

For generic candidates, not Trump.

If you were told that a generic Republican would've beaten a generic Democrat with the same states as Trump did, what would you have guessed the popular vote margin total would be?

I would've thought the Republican candidate would win 49-45 because I had thought of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan as more-Democrat-than-average states.


I thought Trump was going to win the popular vote by a comfortable margin after the results showed him ahead 51-44ish in Ohio.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I would have guessed the match up would be Walker/Portman vs Clinton/Bennet


with a margin of 49-48 GOP win with Stein causing Hillary to lose Michigan

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

I'd assume it would be a "rust belt" democrat that would win rural whites enough to squeak out 1-3 point victories in key swing states:

(GOP - DEM)

- 50-48.5 in Pennsylvania
- 50-49 in Michigan
- 50.5-48 in Wisconsin
- 50-49 in Florida
- 52.5-46 in Ohio
- 52-46 in Iowa
- 52-47 in N.C.
- 48.5-49 in Colorado
- 48-49 in Minnesota
- 48.5-50 in Virginia
- 49-49.5 in N.H.

AZ, GA, and TX would all have their typical margins - 53-45 in AZ, 54-45 in GA, and 56.5-42 in TX.

It'd be weird to not see Nevada and New Hampshire on the GOP side though - I'd think they'd perform somewhat like Bush 2004.

I'd assume Colorado and Virginia were 1-2 point Democratic wins and that Hillary chose a VA politician (likely Kaine as that had been the plan since 2008) or a very popular Latino candidate that helped her in NV, VA, and CO.

Popular vote: Republican 50, Democrat 48.5 (I'd assume the third party vote would be a non-factor)