Ontario 2018 election

[lilTommy]

In any race where the Liberals are possibly in contention, it's going to be close, as no Liberal is headed for a landslide victory (in other words, there are no absolutely, truly safe seats for the Liberals right now).  Another party can't be so far ahead, because personal popularity and strategic voting and so on aren't going to make up for all of that.  The Liberals will prevail because at least one party is very weak and/or another under-performs for some reason.  

In addition, some other criteria:

1.  A lot of "too educated to vote Ford, too rich to vote NDP" types (this may prove the most reliable Liberal constituency)

2.  A riding where the Liberal is clearly best positioned to defeat the Conservative or where the Conservatives have no chance

3.  Extraordinary personal popularity or at least enough to tip the vote in a close race.  Personal popularity matters more in rural and northern ridings

4.  Not too vulnerable to the NDP pulling votes from the Liberals en masse

Using PeteB's Liberal possibilities.

Toronto St. Paul's

Liberal candidate: Jess Spindler

NDP surprisingly close to the Liberals, but the Liberals have the advantage of this being a horrible fit for Ford.  Has 1 in spades, Conservatives can't win it, candidate is a political neophyte, vulnerable on the left but probably not enough to lose because of the weaknesses of the PCs.  So overall, likely Liberal hold.

Don Valley West

Liberal candidate: Premier Kathleen Wynne

Liberal-PC race with very weak NDP potential and PCs under-performing.  Has 1 in spades.  2, yes.  3, absolutely yes.  4, certainly yes.  So overall, likely Liberal hold.

Don Valley East

Liberal candidate: Michael Coteau
A real three-way race.  1, somewhat.  2, perhaps.  3, somewhat. 4, somewhat.  So overall, possible Liberal hold.

Don Valley North

Liberal candidate: Shelley Carroll

Liberal vs. PC race but PCs may be too far ahead.  1, not really.  2, yes.  3, yes.  4, yes.  So overall, Shelley Carroll is an appealing candidate for the riding and clearly the anti-PC candidate, but probably too far behind PCs, so probably not.

Scarborough Guildwood

Liberal candidate: Mitzie Hunter
Three way race, without a strong PC candidate and an invisible NDP.  1, nope.  2, somewhat.  3, yes.  4, hard to say.  Overall, it's the last Scarborough seat to fall, but don't think it's that special.

Eglinton Lawrence

Liberal candidate: Mike Colle

NDP is traditionally very weak but apparently surging and not a good fit for Ford.  1, yes.  2, yes.  3, yes. 4, possibly.  Definitely one of the better bets for the Liberals, but nothing is certain.

Toronto Centre

Liberal candidate: David Morris

Big NDP surge in the riding, Liberals may not be in contention at all, Conservatives not a factor.  1, yes, somewhat.  2, yes.  3, no (no Liberal incumbent or star candidate).  4, definitely vulnerable.  Overall, this looks like an NDP pickup.

University-Rosedale

Liberal candidate: Jo-Ann Davis

Very large NDP/Liberal swing vote in riding, Conservatives not a factor.  1, somewhat.  2, yes.  3, no incumbent or star candidate.  4, definitely vulnerable.  Overall, looks like an NDP pickup.

Spadina Ft. York

Liberal candidate: Han Dong

Very large NDP/Liberal swing vote in riding, Conservatives not a factor.  1, somewhat.  2, yes.  3, not really.  4, definitely vulnerable.  Overall, looks like an NDP pickup.

Willowdale

Liberal candidate: David Zimmer

Traditionally a Liberal/Conservative riding with weak NDP, but NDP slightly ahead of the Liberals.  1, somewhat.  2, not clear.  3, probably not.  4, very vulnerable.  Overall, hard to see Liberals keeping this, though not impossible.

Etobicoke Lakeshore

Liberal candidate: Peter Milczyn

PC-NDP race with Liberals clearly in third.  Next!

Vaughan-Woodbridge

Liberal candidate: Steven Del Duca

NDP is very weak, no reason to believe PCs are underperforming because of Ford as Ford is a better fit for the riding than a generic PC leader. 1, definitely not.  2, yes.  3, not enough to tip a double digit PC lead in a 905 riding.  4, NDP is weak and probably won't make or break the Liberals.  Overall, almost certainly not.

Hamilton West Ancaster Dundas

Liberal candidate: Ted McMeekin

KW has made some appearances with McMeekin recently.  Bad fit for Ford but progressive vote is moving en masse to the NDP.  Next!

Mississauga Centre

Liberal candidate: Bobbie Daid (had to look this up)

New riding.  Liberals may benefit from "anti-poppy" NDP candidate but that just splits the vote and helps the PCs.  So probably not.

Mississauga East Cooksville

Liberal candidate:  Damerla Dapeka

Traditionally Liberal-Conservative with weak NDP, seems somewhat vulnerable to vote-splitting, more Fordian than generic PC.  Not going to bother going through the rest here.
  
Mississauga Malton

Liberal candidate: Amrit Mangat

Traditionally Liberal-Conservative, but with NDP base from Jagmeet Singh's territory moved into the riding.  1, definitely not.  2, not clear at all.  3, definitely not.  4, NDP could win this if things go well.  Likely PC pickup due to vote-splitting, and NDP seems more likely to take it than the Liberals.

17. St. Catharines

Liberal candidate: Jim Bradley

A Jim Bradley riding, not a traditional Liberal riding, but it looks like he's in third.  Personal popularity doesn't look like it will save him.  Polling says it'll go NDP, PCs more likely to take it than Bradley.  It would be a stunner, but one of the most likely non-GTA/non-Ottawa/non-Thunder Bay holdouts.

Thunder Bay Superior North and Thunder Bay Atikokan

Liberal candidates: Michael Gravelle and Bill Mauro

Personal popularity, not riding demographics or popularity of the Liberals make these Liberal held.  Personal popularity matters far more in Northern Ontario than in the GTA.  They could hold on, but also lose to the NDP.

Ottawa Vanier

Liberal candidate:  Nathalie Des Rosiers

Good case for being the safest Liberal riding in the province, will go NDP before it goes Conservative.  Has 1 in spades.  2, yes.  3, Lib MPP is respected but it's the deep history not the candidate doing.  4, maybe with a better candiate.  Overall, likely Liberal hold.

Ottawa Centre

Liberal candidate: Yasir Naqvi

Liberal/NDP swing riding.  1, no the educated and professional classes have no problem voting NDP here.  2, yes.  3, Naqvi = Paul Dewar.  4, absolutely yes.  Going NDP.

Ottawa South

Liberal candidate: John Fraser

Looks like a genuine three-way race, with NDP polling surprisingly well.  1, somewhat. 2, unclear. 3, not clear.  4, probably not.  Overall, a bit of a crapshoot where anyone can prevail, Liberal hold is certainly possible.

Glengarry Prescott Russell

Liberal candidate: Pierre Leroux

Very popular mayor running for the Liberals, NDP has no chance.  Hard to see a riding like this going Liberal, but I guess in the unlikelihood of a rural Liberal out it'll be this one.

I looked at your list and am in general agreement with the logic but I do believe that there is a "shy Liberal" vote out there.  I also believe that there is a fifth criteria for the Liberals winning seats - places where the Liberals are not viewed so negatively and where their previous majorities were high.

So, in addition to 5-6 seats you identified as likely holds (St. Paul's, DVW, DVE, Eglinton Lawrence, Ottawa Vanier, one TB seat), I would suggest the following are also likely to stay Liberal:

1. Inner TO ridings (Toronto Centre, University Rosedale, Spadina Ft. York) - there is no real reason for these to flip to the NDP.  The voters there are not necessarily unhappy with the Liberals, there is no PC threat at all, and the previous Liberal majorities were massive (in some cases 50%+).  I would expect the Liberals to hold at least two out of the three.

2. Unlike other people here, I also do NOT believe that the NDP will do well in Mississauga.  I hate to bring ethnicity and religion into this, but things that help the NDP in several Brampton ridings (strong support of the Sikh community) will imho hurt them in Mississauga. As a result, I believe that the Liberals could hold some or all of the three ridings.  Mississauga Centre (Anti-Poppy candidate running for the NDP and PC on their third candidate after dispensing of Granic Allen) is a prime target.  It's a binary PC-Liberal race with lots of condo dwellers who may view the Liberals as a better choice.  Mississauga East Cooksville has the Minister for Seniors and Long Term Care Dipika Damerla running - I wouldn't underestimate her chances there.  Malton is also more in tune with the Liberals than the NDP (although if the NDP wins any Mississauga seats, this would be the one).  So I would chalk up one or two seats for the Liberals here.

So according to this (which you may not agree with ), the Liberals would be at 9-10 seats.  They also have a fair chance in at least 10 other ridings (DVN, Willowdale, Scarborough Guildwood, Vaughan Woodbridge, Ottawa South, Ottawa Centre, Ottawa Orleans, St. Catharines, GPR and the other Thunder Bay seat).  Assuming they win just 2 of them, they could be at 12 seats, and we can talk about a potential minority situation, assuming NDP does well in the rest of the province.

1 - Inner TO; I disagree, there is a very noticeable swing against the Liberals in Toronto and in the DT, upwards of 15 points to the NDP from polling. There is Liberal fatigue and frustration, not so much out-right anger. Had the PC nominated Elliott or even Mulroney I'd be more willing to agree. But I'm hearing/feeling a very big anti-ford push and before this there was some support moving back to the NDP especially with the platform (this is why Daveport and Beaches-East York were so heavily targeted). Remember the OLP basically began to introduce the NDP platform (Pharmacare kinda, $15min.wage for some, etc) it is very easy for left-Liberals to shift to the NDP. Yes I think all three will go NDP. These three ridings are progressive swingers, in 2011 Fed the area voted heavily NDP (baring Rosedale) and would have won the newly configured TO Centre back then (I believe that was stated). Two of the three have no OLP incumbent and the NDP are running very very aggressively. These three area all lean-advantage NDP.

2 - I agree, Mississauga I just can't see the NDP winning much or anything, barring Malton as the only NDP chance, the party should basically run everything they can there, but the NDP is better to forcus their resources in Brampton. Brampton is where I think the NDP has a change to win 4 of the 5 if they begin to strategically work.  

[lilTommy]

or the PCs choking in the last moments of the campaign.

Someone in the PC war room ought to kidnap Ford and lock him up in a nice cottage somewhere until election day just in case.

I believe that is what they are trying to do... I heard Ford had one stop, and he also ducked out of talking to anyone in Woodbridge today.

[lilTommy]

Rob Ford's widow Renata sues Doug Ford

Wow.  I wonder if they timed this on purpose to be right before the election.  I guess the answer must be yes.

That is what Ford is alleging in his statement. And his mother is pretty much calling her an addict.

What a screwed up family....

This might really hurt Doug, Rob Ford's wife basically said he mismanaged funds, and his company; gave himself a plush paycheck and is too uneducated for the role he was in... damn, from his own family! But this goes against his personal credibility, basically what hes been running on (when not saying the NDP will cause the apocalypse)
Doug is saying Renata (Doug wife) were extorting them for money.

[lilTommy]

Latest Pollara tracking poll (June 1-4):

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-fords-advance-edge/

PC 39% (+2%)
NDP 37% (nc)
Lib 17% (-3%)

Ugly for the NDP and positively frightening for the Liberals.

Even more interesting is the fact that: "...Perhaps the most striking feature in today’s report is that among the 18.8 per cent of respondents who say they have already voted, 43 per cent voted PC, compared to 36 per cent for the NDP and 15 per cent for the Liberals...."

If the NDP needs any more wakeup calls that they have to cooperate with the Liberals to get a shot at government, after this, they are clinically brain dead!

We have to state, it is not the NDP who us unwilling, its the Liberals; Wynne is still aggressively targeting the NDP, with Fords attach lines, even more so then the they are attacking the PCs.

[lilTommy]

Doug Ford got my vote. Rae days, affirmative action, and Sunday shopping. The ghost of the NDP still haunts this great province.... The man has his faults, but he got the interest of working Ontarians in mind.

Your kidding right? he's a wealthy man, born into wealthy and only uses the working man to get elected. Trust, I lived through the Ford lost years. Over 1500 people lost their jobs, the eliminated transit routes to the very areas that were mostly working poor, closed libraries/communities centres, created new taxes and cut revenues at the same time, privatized services... the waste or fat? was not found, at all.
his interests, lay solely with helping the rich get richer (look at his tax plans) and eliminating the idea that the government can do good.

Rae days, you know that saved over 20 THOUSAND jobs right? Affirmative action, ya ending systemic racism, that's a bad thing.

... I think i got triggered?
back to polling!!

[lilTommy]

New Ekos poll?:

https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/1004140058901925888

that is our numbers from this morning that I mentioned.

Your number have the NDP tied with the PCs, but that looks to be a sizable increase for the NDP and rebound since late-may. Looking forward to seeing regional numbers

Yes PressProgress is left-leaning, Its a "'project" by the Broadbent Institute, so is definitely NDP friendly. But look at the Sun and tell me their aren't overtly Conservative right.
But if you can point to where any of this is incorrect, please do.. but this goes to show the caliber of the PC candidates.

[lilTommy]

Kingston and the Islands - Leaning NDP riding
Simcoe-Grey - Safe PC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke - Titanium PC
Orleans - Probably going PC
Guelph - Greens are favoured, with the NDP close behind
Simcoe North - Solid PC
Northumberland-Peterborough South - Should go PC
Ottawa Centre - Likely to go NDP
Toronto-Danforth - Very NDP
Burlington - Probably going PC, but the Mainstreet poll had it closer than I thought it would be

Kitchener South-Hespeler - Probably PC
Brampton West - Should go NDP
Markham-Unionville - Very safely PC
Brampton South - Close PC/NDP race
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill - Very safely PC
Markham Stouffville - Very safely PC
University-Rosedale - Should go NDP
Davenport - Should go NDP
Etobicoke North - Ford's riding, should go PC.
Toronto-Danforth - See above

So basically we have 11 safe or likely PC ridings in those 19. Not great news.

A lot of the top 10 advance voting ridings are traditionally PC ridings, where the senior population votes early.  BTW, I do think that Kingston and the Islands is now Safe NDP.

OTOH you would think that many of the top 10 % increase ridings will flip - so I read that as good indications for NDP in Kitchener South Hespeler, University Rosedale and Davenport.

If there is one riding on these lists that is a mystery to me, that's Toronto Danforth.  That's Peter Tabuns' riding, and arguably the safest NDP seat in Toronto - why so many advance votes?

I'm going to be optimistic here (which has been hard this past week and a half) and say Toronto-Danforth doing this could suggest NDP enthusiasm.

Could be, but then why not Parkdale High Park, Beaches East York, Toronto Centre or Spadina - Ft. York?

Parkdale-High Park - has only a recent history of being a Strong NDP riding, thanks in part to Cheri DiNovo's win in 2006 (I think) the old Parkdale looked like an NDP seat but was held by the Liberals, even in 1990.

Toronto Centre - Again, there have been blocks of strong NDP support but overall this has been a Liberal riding, with NDP swings.
Spadina-Fort York - See above, but here the old For York riding leaned much more to the NDP.
-> demographically with the Condo boom these two ridings have become strongholds for Progressives, that are swinging between the NDP and Liberals

Beaches-East York- Interesting mix, the East York area is much working class, ethnically mixed and tends to swing between the OLP/NDP. Beaches used to be much more of a strong NDP area but this area has become much wealthier.

Toronto-Danforth - the NDP history here goes way back, Riverdale has been held by the NDP continuously since 1964. Demographically this is still a left-progressive area but has been home to strong NDP personalities like Jack Layton, Marylin Churley, Peter Tabuns, Paula Fletcher... the NDP brand is just really strong here and the grassroots NDP community are highly active.

[lilTommy]

The "flip" between Parkdale-High Park and Beaches-East York over the last 20 years or so is interesting. Now P-HP has a solid 40% NDP vote even in bad times, while Beaches has become a lot more of a Liberal-leaning riding that goes NDP in the right circumstances. 

Davenport too has become more NDP.

It seems that gentrification in the west end has been of a "pro-NDP" sort while gentrification of the Beaches area has made it more like St. Paul's (where the NDP is also in play this time!)

Absolutely, you can see where demographics have contributed to both.

Interestingly the old Beaches-Woodbine was a solid NDP riding since 1975, the north end, was Don Mills (East York plus but included areas now in Don Valley East and West) was more PC. Now, since about 2011 Beaches has trended OLP. in 2014 the NDP lost BEY because you can see a very noticeable N/S split; NDP winning the north, East York and the OLP winning the Beaches in the South. Still a bit swingy I feel, but there is a stronger OLP base then previously, due to just how expensive and NIMBY the area is here.

The NDP are trying to re-build here you can see that, municipally former NDP MP Matthew Kellway is running in the Beaches council ward.

Uni-Rosedale = Candidate and University and the strongest stable NDP areas from Trinity-Spadina

PeteB, Good observation? I wonder if perhaps they were top 20?
Toronto-Danforth could also have a lot of volunteers who voted early in order to spend Thursday pulling the vote?

I am also seeing tons of enthusiasm in Toronto Centre, but this is legit a battleground riding so I think that has something to do with it

[lilTommy]

The last three polls (Pollara, EKOS and IPSOS) all that the NDP gaining (small amounts, 1-2%) but back on up in the Polls. Recent events (i.e. Ford's issues, candidates and personal issues)?

Interesting is how close all three are: PC 38-39% NDP 36-39%, OLP 17-19%

[lilTommy]

Looks like CARP (cdn ass. of Retired person's.. or people, anywho)

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/06/06/news/horwath-gaining-ford-among-older-voters-says-poll

Support for the NDP has doubled among CARP members since April

PCs - 31% down from 37%
NDP - 26%, up from 10%!
OLP - 20%, down from 22%

undecideds dropped from 14% from 29%

[lilTommy]

Mike Colle (Eglinton-Lawrence) and Shelley Carroll (Don Valley North) are (correctly) telling voters that only they have a chance of stopping Doug Ford.  This tactic is being copied in other ridings like St. Paul's though where it doesn't make sense.  But the St. Paul's Libs are trying to appeal as much to John Tory voters as progressives that are voting NDP.

sadly, Liberals are doing this using 2014 polling as "proof" that only they can stop the PCs... when they can't, not in Scarborough (minus Agincourt) or Etobicoke (minus E.Centre)