Louisiana Nov 16, 2019 Run-Off Election Results thread

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/brynstole/status/1195919657934479360?s=20

[We Live in Black and White]

https://twitter.com/brynstole/status/1195919657934479360?s=20

hahahaha holy s**t

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

As of 11:23 PM ET

49 precincts are outstanding (1 in St James; remainder is EBR & Orleans)

It looks almost as if... trends are real.

[Antonio the Sixth]

NOLA is done. Edwards finished just below 90%. Statewide margin at 40K.

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/brynstole/status/1195919657934479360?s=20

HAHA BASED!  SOUTHERN STYLE BASED!

[Oryxslayer]

As of 11:23 PM ET

49 precincts are outstanding (1 in St James; remainder is EBR & Orleans)

It looks almost as if... trends are real.

[Pericles]

I don't really care JBE won anyway. He's a DINO.

Owning the libs like you don't really care your party lost. JBE expanded Medicaid which is something a GOP Governor would not do, so he's definitely a Democrat.

And Republicans won't get to gerrymander Louisiana for the 2020s, there will be a fair map.

[RI]

I don't really care JBE won anyway. He's a DINO.

He just gave a shout out to “social justice” on stage, so...

"Social justice" is a term which means different things to different people.

[We Live in Black and White]

As for the national implications of Kentucky and Louisiana: yeah, it's true that we largely won on the basis of Bevin being a steaming pile of f**k and Edwards continuously remaining popular, but - to put it the way another poster above me put it - if this is actually a lasting trend in our favor, which we can apply to Georgia and Texas, the GOP is absolutely boned next year.

[Adam Griffin]

Orleans, 2015: JBE 86.53% (8.21% of statewide vote)
Orleans, 2019: JBE 89.80% (8.49% of statewide vote)

Jefferson, 2015: JBE 50.64% (8.55% of statewide vote)
Jefferson, 2019: JBE 56.97% (8.41% of statewide vote)

JBE basically netted 26-27k out of these two counties just on their increased share of statewide vote and/or increased support of him. He currently leads by around 40k.

[Orser67]

Moral of the story of 2019 is that candidate quality still matters

[libertpaulian]

As for the national implications of Kentucky and Louisiana: yeah, it's true that we largely won on the basis of Bevin being a steaming pile of f**k and Edwards continuously remaining popular, but - to put it the way another poster above me put it - if this is actually a lasting trend in our favor, which we can apply to Georgia and Texas, the GOP is absolutely boned next year.

Assuming that the GOP hasn't max'ed out their rural numbers yet.

[We Live in Black and White]

As for the national implications of Kentucky and Louisiana: yeah, it's true that we largely won on the basis of Bevin being a steaming pile of f**k and Edwards continuously remaining popular, but - to put it the way another poster above me put it - if this is actually a lasting trend in our favor, which we can apply to Georgia and Texas, the GOP is absolutely boned next year.

Assuming that the GOP hasn't max'ed out their rural numbers yet.

Fair argument, to which I raise the following: New Orleans tonight suggests that we haven't maxed out our urban and suburban numbers yet, either.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

As for the national implications of Kentucky and Louisiana: yeah, it's true that we largely won on the basis of Bevin being a steaming pile of f**k and Edwards continuously remaining popular, but - to put it the way another poster above me put it - if this is actually a lasting trend in our favor, which we can apply to Georgia and Texas, the GOP is absolutely boned next year.

Assuming that the GOP hasn't max'ed out their rural numbers yet.

True but the story of the 2019 races is that the marginal gains in rurals is not enough to offfset h hemorrhaging in suburbs and cities (large and small).

[One Term Floridian]

As for the national implications of Kentucky and Louisiana: yeah, it's true that we largely won on the basis of Bevin being a steaming pile of f**k and Edwards continuously remaining popular, but - to put it the way another poster above me put it - if this is actually a lasting trend in our favor, which we can apply to Georgia and Texas, the GOP is absolutely boned next year.

Assuming that the GOP hasn't max'ed out their rural numbers yet.

Depending on a dying portion of the country isn’t a long-term winning strat tho. The Dems’ winning over suburbs is a really big deal

[SN2903]

GOP are indeed in trouble in 2020

based on 1 race ? Stop it

LOL. Just stop. Apply these trends to states like AZ, GA, and TX and the GOP is f---ed.

the election is a year away

[libertpaulian]

I'm beginning to think maybe Trump needs to stay in office until his term is up.  He's the best good luck charm that the Democratic Party has had in decades.

[Adam Griffin]

6 precincts in EBR remain (in the end, EBR will swing around 3 points to Rispone):

[Xing]

Can Edwards net another 4K from the remaining Baton Rouge votes? If he does, Democrats will have won the overall vote for the 2019 gubernatorial races.

[Pericles]

I'm beginning to think maybe Trump needs to stay in office until his term is up.  He's the best good luck charm that the Democratic Party has had in decades.

Impeachment is basically certain not to result on Trump's removal from office imo. My hope is that by laying out the truth it will alienate swing voters and play a role in hitting Republicans in 2020 (and it is clearly an impeachable offense so it would be a dereliction of duty morally for Democrats not to impeach and not to even attempt to hold Trump accountable).

[Calthrina950]

Glad to see that Edwards has won reelection. We need more Democrats like him.

[We Live in Black and White]

There's another point to be made here which would make me absolutely s**t myself if I were with the GOP: even with Trump's approvals leveling out and holding relatively steady, they're still uncontrollably hemorrhaging suburban voters even in the deepest of the Deep South.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

As for the national implications of Kentucky and Louisiana: yeah, it's true that we largely won on the basis of Bevin being a steaming pile of f**k and Edwards continuously remaining popular, but - to put it the way another poster above me put it - if this is actually a lasting trend in our favor, which we can apply to Georgia and Texas, the GOP is absolutely boned next year.

Assuming that the GOP hasn't max'ed out their rural numbers yet.

There’s much less for the GOP to tap out of rural Texas than there is for Democrats to tap out of the metro centers. Look at all the counties that Cruz won with 80-90% of the vote and then look at how much Democrats still have room for upward growth in places like Harris County, the DFW metroplex, and San Antonio and Austin metro

[Adam Griffin]

Crunching some quick and rough numbers: in all the (6 counties) that swung to JBE compared to 2015, he netted about 30k votes when factoring in swing & share of electorate changes.

He leads by 40k as of now, meaning that if he had performed exactly as in 2015 in Orleans, Jefferson, St Tammany (+ SC, SJB & East Carroll), he would have staved off just enough losses elsewhere to eek out a win regardless; something akin to the KY margin (~0.5 point win).

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Yeah. Dems doing badly in the suburbs is really bad for us if it keeps up, and there's no denying that. That's why we need Nikki Haley on the ballot in 2024.