Louisiana Nov 16, 2019 Run-Off Election Results thread

[One Term Floridian]

Crunching some quick and rough numbers: in all the (6 counties) that swung to JBE compared to 2015, he netted about 30k votes.

He leads by 40k as of now, meaning that if he had performed exactly as in 2015 in Orleans, Jefferson, St Tammany (+ SC, SJB & East Carroll), he would have staved off just enough losses elsewhere to eek out a win regardless; something akin to the KY margin (~0.5 point win).

Incredible.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can Edwards net another 4K from the remaining Baton Rouge votes? If he does, Democrats will have won the overall vote for the 2019 gubernatorial races.

There probably isn't much more than 4K total votes left there, so very unlikely.

[libertpaulian]

Yeah. Dems doing badly in the suburbs is really bad for us if it keeps up, and there's no denying that. That's why we need Nikki Haley on the ballot in 2024.

Just because the GOP nominee is a female who so happens to not be White American doesn't mean suburban voters are suddenly going to flock back.

[libertpaulian]

Can Edwards net another 4K from the remaining Baton Rouge votes? If he does, Democrats will have won the overall vote for the 2019 gubernatorial races.

There probably isn't much more than 4K total votes left there, so very unlikely.

Maybe some absentees and provisionals might help.

[Xing]

Can Edwards net another 4K from the remaining Baton Rouge votes? If he does, Democrats will have won the overall vote for the 2019 gubernatorial races.

There probably isn't much more than 4K total votes left there, so very unlikely.

Yeah, probably not, but the overall total will be exceptionally close.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Yeah. Dems doing badly in the suburbs is really bad for us if it keeps up, and there's no denying that. That's why we need Nikki Haley on the ballot in 2024.

Just because the GOP nominee is a female who so happens to not be White American doesn't mean suburban voters are suddenly going to flock back.

Sure, but she also has the kind of tempermant, demeanor, and common sense conservative policies that have won us the suburbs before. Plus, one of the big reasons for the suburban trend left is that the GOP is perceived as intolerant of non-white voters (a problem as the suburbs become more diverse). She can help fix that perception.

[Gass3268]

Obama did under the radar GOTV calls for JBE and LA Legislature Dems.

https://twitter.com/jonfavs/status/1195927525177708545?s=20

[One Term Floridian]

Yeah. Dems doing badly in the suburbs is really bad for us if it keeps up, and there's no denying that. That's why we need Nikki Haley on the ballot in 2024.

Highly doubt Trumpism is just gonna disappear by then though

[SN2903]

Yeah. Dems doing badly in the suburbs is really bad for us if it keeps up, and there's no denying that. That's why we need Nikki Haley on the ballot in 2024.

Just because the GOP nominee is a female who so happens to not be White American doesn't mean suburban voters are suddenly going to flock back.

Sure, but she also has the kind of tempermant, demeanor, and common sense conservative policies that have won us the suburbs before. Plus, one of the big reasons for the suburban trend left is that the GOP is perceived as intolerant of non-white voters (a problem as the suburbs become more diverse). She can help fix that perception.

Haley or John James would be great nominees

[Devout Centrist]

Yeah. Dems doing badly in the suburbs is really bad for us if it keeps up, and there's no denying that. That's why we need Nikki Haley on the ballot in 2024.

Just because the GOP nominee is a female who so happens to not be White American doesn't mean suburban voters are suddenly going to flock back.

Sure, but she also has the kind of tempermant, demeanor, and common sense conservative policies that have won us the suburbs before. Plus, one of the big reasons for the suburban trend left is that the GOP is perceived as intolerant of non-white voters (a problem as the suburbs become more diverse). She can help fix that perception.

How does she get nominated?

[libertpaulian]

Yeah. Dems doing badly in the suburbs is really bad for us if it keeps up, and there's no denying that. That's why we need Nikki Haley on the ballot in 2024.

Just because the GOP nominee is a female who so happens to not be White American doesn't mean suburban voters are suddenly going to flock back.

Sure, but she also has the kind of tempermant, demeanor, and common sense conservative policies that have won us the suburbs before. Plus, one of the big reasons for the suburban trend left is that the GOP is perceived as intolerant of non-white voters (a problem as the suburbs become more diverse). She can help fix that perception.

It's more than that.  The suburbs have moved left because the issues that face suburban voters are different than those of years past.  It's not Boomers and Silents mad about tax increases anymore.  Now, it's about Millennials and Xers being mad about student loan debt, healthcare costs, and climate change.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Yeah. Dems doing badly in the suburbs is really bad for us if it keeps up, and there's no denying that. That's why we need Nikki Haley on the ballot in 2024.

Just because the GOP nominee is a female who so happens to not be White American doesn't mean suburban voters are suddenly going to flock back.

Sure, but she also has the kind of tempermant, demeanor, and common sense conservative policies that have won us the suburbs before. Plus, one of the big reasons for the suburban trend left is that the GOP is perceived as intolerant of non-white voters (a problem as the suburbs become more diverse). She can help fix that perception.

How does she get nominated?

By being popular with both the Trumpist and Non-Trumpist wings of the party, like she is now?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Yeah. Dems doing badly in the suburbs is really bad for us if it keeps up, and there's no denying that. That's why we need Nikki Haley on the ballot in 2024.

Just because the GOP nominee is a female who so happens to not be White American doesn't mean suburban voters are suddenly going to flock back.

Sure, but she also has the kind of tempermant, demeanor, and common sense conservative policies that have won us the suburbs before. Plus, one of the big reasons for the suburban trend left is that the GOP is perceived as intolerant of non-white voters (a problem as the suburbs become more diverse). She can help fix that perception.

It's more than that.  The suburbs have moved left because the issues that face suburban voters are different than those of years past.  It's not Boomers and Silents mad about tax increases anymore.  Now, it's about Millennials and Xers being mad about student loan debt, healthcare costs, and climate change.

Explain why so many suburbs split tickets for state level Republicans in 2018 then.

[BP🌹]

Yeah. Dems doing badly in the suburbs is really bad for us if it keeps up, and there's no denying that. That's why we need Nikki Haley on the ballot in 2024.

Her chances of ever winning a Republican primary ended when she took down the Confederate flag at the SC statehouse.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Yeah. Dems doing badly in the suburbs is really bad for us if it keeps up, and there's no denying that. That's why we need Nikki Haley on the ballot in 2024.

Her chances of ever winning a Republican primary ended when she took down the Confederate flag at the SC statehouse.

Yawn. "Muh racist Republicans"

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ol' Demon Eyes loses! Democrats are two for three this year! Plus we got the added bonus of an end to the GOP'S super-majority in the state! What a pleasant development. Trump's week just keeps getting worse!

[libertpaulian]

Yeah. Dems doing badly in the suburbs is really bad for us if it keeps up, and there's no denying that. That's why we need Nikki Haley on the ballot in 2024.

Just because the GOP nominee is a female who so happens to not be White American doesn't mean suburban voters are suddenly going to flock back.

Sure, but she also has the kind of tempermant, demeanor, and common sense conservative policies that have won us the suburbs before. Plus, one of the big reasons for the suburban trend left is that the GOP is perceived as intolerant of non-white voters (a problem as the suburbs become more diverse). She can help fix that perception.

It's more than that.  The suburbs have moved left because the issues that face suburban voters are different than those of years past.  It's not Boomers and Silents mad about tax increases anymore.  Now, it's about Millennials and Xers being mad about student loan debt, healthcare costs, and climate change.

Explain why so many suburbs split tickets for state level Republicans in 2018 then.

For the same reason that rural Southern whites gave monster margins to Ronald Reagan while still voting Dem at the state and municipal level.  The party switch effect hadn't fully kicked in yet.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Yeah. Dems doing badly in the suburbs is really bad for us if it keeps up, and there's no denying that. That's why we need Nikki Haley on the ballot in 2024.

Her chances of ever winning a Republican primary ended when she took down the Confederate flag at the SC statehouse.

Yawn. "Muh racist Republicans"

Good you’re getting it

[SN2903]

Yeah. Dems doing badly in the suburbs is really bad for us if it keeps up, and there's no denying that. That's why we need Nikki Haley on the ballot in 2024.

Just because the GOP nominee is a female who so happens to not be White American doesn't mean suburban voters are suddenly going to flock back.

Sure, but she also has the kind of tempermant, demeanor, and common sense conservative policies that have won us the suburbs before. Plus, one of the big reasons for the suburban trend left is that the GOP is perceived as intolerant of non-white voters (a problem as the suburbs become more diverse). She can help fix that perception.

It's more than that.  The suburbs have moved left because the issues that face suburban voters are different than those of years past.  It's not Boomers and Silents mad about tax increases anymore.  Now, it's about Millennials and Xers being mad about student loan debt, healthcare costs, and climate change.

I wouldn't read so much into it . Maybe suburban voters also care a lot about the economy , trade and taxes. Trump has improved in certain suburban areas from what past republicans did like in Macomb county Michigan. The suburban vote varies by socioeconomic status. There is a clear shift to the dems in more affluent areas.

[BP🌹]

Yeah. Dems doing badly in the suburbs is really bad for us if it keeps up, and there's no denying that. That's why we need Nikki Haley on the ballot in 2024.

Her chances of ever winning a Republican primary ended when she took down the Confederate flag at the SC statehouse.

Yawn. "Muh racist Republicans"

It's literally true though.

Her campaign will implode when Tom Cotton reminds everyone of that on the debate stage.

Oh, and she's a crazy, neoconservative war hawk.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1195929298504429573

Final results.

Edwards: 774,469, 51.3%
Rispone: 734,128, 48.7%

[One Term Floridian]

Yeah. Dems doing badly in the suburbs is really bad for us if it keeps up, and there's no denying that. That's why we need Nikki Haley on the ballot in 2024.

Her chances of ever winning a Republican primary ended when she took down the Confederate flag at the SC statehouse.

Yawn. "Muh racist Republicans"

Yawn all you want, but look at what happened to many of the lawmakers in GA when they voted to remove the Confederate flag back in the day

[walleye26]

How many seats did Dems pickup in the LA statehouse?

[Antonio the Sixth]

JBE's performance in the largest parishes compared to DK's benchmarks (the one in the comments that corrects for the obvious ceiling in NOLA):

EBR: EVEN
Jefferson: EVEN
Orleans: -2
St. Tammany: -1
Caddo: +1
Lafayette: EVEN
Calcasieu: +1
Ouachita: +5
Livingston: -2
Rapides: +2
Ascension: EVEN
Tangipahoa: +1
Bossier: +1
Terrebonne: -2
Lafourche: -3

Overall was +1, of course, since it was calibrated for a 50/50 outcome.

[soundchaser]

How many seats did Dems pickup in the LA statehouse?

Just one, but they held another. Enough to prevent the supermajority.