Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Queensland and Western Australia were impacted by the mining boom which is now receding. In relation to Brisbane, most people refer to SE Queensland instead of Brisbane alone because of the both the population growth of both Gold and Sunshine Coasts as well as their increasing proximity. If you look on a map where the Northern Suburbs of the Gold Coast finish and the Southern suburbs of Brisbane start and vice versa for the Sunshine Coast they're almost contiguous.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

With 90.2% of the vote counted in Herbert, the LNP is ahead by 12 votes.

Based on what's outstanding, it looks like the ALP might win by 10-15 votes. Automatic recount territory.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The ALP is now ahead in Herbert by 8 votes.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The ABC's prediction computer has given Herbert to the ALP

Seat totals:
L/NP: 76 (-14) (majority of 2/1, depending on your definition in terms of seat counts)
ALP: 69 (+14)
GRN: 1 (0)
NXT: 1 (+1)
KAP: 1 (0)
IND: 2
PUP: 0 (-1)

It's a working majority of one... lol, magnificent. Remember Wilkie, McGowan and Katter have only guaranteed supply and confidence.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Is that even English?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The recount will commence in Herbert soon and is expected to take... a FORTNIGHT.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Now? It's been conservative-leaning for years. That's what population decline does to you.

How does that explain Lingiari (the seat covering almost all of the area of the Northern Territory)? It's far and away the largest seat by area held by the ALP (and since its creation in 2001). I've read that Alice Springs is more cosmopolitan than one might generally think. There's almost certainly a significant Aboriginal population in the electorate, but do they actually vote and if so, do they vote ALP (to be honest, I'm not familiar with any indigenous population in a first world developed country not voting for the centre-left party)?

In a somewhat related topic, I've wondered why the Northern Territory isn't a state. Is it because they would get more seats in the Senate as a state (quite a lot more if all states would still be considered equal)?

1. Alice Springs is a big portion of the vote and the local ALP member is well-known, well-liked and has a great relationship with the local Aboriginal community. You don't have the "same" kind of established country people you have in the other states.

2.Yup - the ALP does extremely well with the Indigenous community.

3. On statehood, the Constitution only grants equal-footing to the original colonies. Any states that are created would likely have fewer than 12 Senators. I mean, people look at Tasmania with 500k people having 12 senators as a joke, how would the NT, with not much over 200k having 12 look?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Labor has claimed Herbert, but the LNP will almost certainly challenge it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Western Australia Senate is out: 5 Libs, 4 Labs, 2 Greens, 1 fascist (assuming he does not got to prison).

And, of course, the territories are out: 2 Labs, 2 Libs.

So far it is 11 Libs, 11 Labs, 4 greens, 2 others.

Hahaha, Turnbull is just going to be in for a terrible time!

Serves him right for calling a double dissolution over his irrelevant and disturbing hatred of unions.  That CMFEU bashing nonsense will get no where in the Senate.

The thing is... EVERYONE said this would happen. He thought himself smarter than everyone, it's pretty typical of the Turnbull MO.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Button presses in Queensland and NSW, as reported by Kevin Bonham.

Queensland: 5 Coalition, 4 Labor, 2 One Nation, 1 Green. My LDP boy Gabe Buckley didn't make it
NSW: 5 Coalition, 4 Labor, 1 One Nation, 1 LDP, 1 Green.

Full distribution of preferences isn't posted yet. Australia-wide total:
30 Coalition
26 Labor
9 Greens
4 One Nation
3 Nick Xenophon Team
1 Liberal Democrats
1 Family First
1 Derryn Hinch
1 Jacqui Lambie

Labor+Greens+NXT have 38/76, enough to block any legislation.

Indeed, well done Malcolm.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-senate-count-favours-union-bill/news-story/6649054602cf478ca8115da14438b4b9

I'm aware of The Australian's biases, but what's the chance of this actually happening?

It would help if the news article wasn't behind a paywall...

Wasn't when I looked, but it appears to be now. Weird.
Anyway, main story: Turnbull might have a majority (Coalition+One Nation+right-wing micros and indos) to push through the ABCC bill in a joint sitting.

One Nation is pro-union.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Why did the Liberals become so much more popular at the end of 2015? I know Turnbull replaced Abbott, but there must have been other reasons, right?

Nope, that's enough.

Well it was a combination of relief to see Abbott gone, but also hope about the direction of politics and specific policies. When they realised they haven't gotten the knight in shining armour they wanted (which, given his last stint at party leadership, was utterly misplaced) things returned to Earth and rapidly.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Basically, I agree.

The compromise was a desperate attempt by the far-right of the Liberal Party room to avoid a free vote. Now, despite rubbishing the plebiscite idea (correctly) last year, Turnbull chose to decide THAT was not a policy worth changing, despite throwing out or reversing a number of Abbott policies.

I dare say, the only people really happy about this, are clueless people and those far-right politicians, because, as we've seen for the last nearly year (good lord, it's been nearly a year!?) is that if you're relying on Malcolm Turnbull to stand up to the right of the Liberal Party room, you're in for a rude shock.

I'm utterly opposed to a civil right being granted to a minority based on the good will of a majority vote (even then you've got a batch of the Liberal right who won't vote for even IF the plebiscite passes... I imagine even afterwards you'll end up with people saying "well 57% isn't that big of an endorsement... who'll speak for the 43%" etc etc). It's a disgusting, expensive, dangerous and unnecessary process, but Malcolm Turnbull's complete lack of a spine or being willing to stick to what should be core Liberal principles means this probably is the only path that will give them legitimate cover this term.