PA: muhlenberg: Trump +3

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1787956232113795289

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/schlagteslinks/status/1787960653527085208

[henster]

The question for the Biden campaign becomes how do you get a 35/57 JA into at least breakeven territory come election day? Even at the height of his SOTU bump he could only manage to crack above 40% for a couple weeks.

[wbrocks67]

Definitely voting:
Trump 45 - Biden 43
Biden 39 - Trump 37 - RFK 14

I see unfortunately Muhlenberg has also fallen into the "Biden surging with Whites, flopping with nonwhites" storyline as well

[wbrocks67]

Biggest issue here for Biden is this:

Biden 2020 voters: 80% Biden, 3% Trump, 17% neither/other
Trump 2020 voters: 88% Trump, 5% Biden, 6% neither/other

The thing is, the question is if its real because polls have been all over the place in terms of who is consolidating the most voters. But if it is real, it again points to the truth that Biden voters are not flipping to Trump (ironically, more are flipping the other way around here), but that Biden needs to get the more ambivalent folks who don't want Trump but don't love voting for Biden again either.

Though, Biden only getting 76% of Ds and Casey only getting 80% also presents that this isn't really a Biden specific issue either. I think a lot of these PA polls are just getting kind of messy Democrat samples.

[Eraserhead]

Biggest issue here for Biden is this:

Biden 2020 voters: 80% Biden, 3% Trump, 17% neither/other
Trump 2020 voters: 88% Trump, 5% Biden, 6% neither/other

The thing is, the question is if its real because polls have been all over the place in terms of who is consolidating the most voters. But if it is real, it again points to the truth that Biden voters are not flipping to Trump (ironically, more are flipping the other way around here), but that Biden needs to get the more ambivalent folks who don't want Trump but don't love voting for Biden again either.

Though, Biden only getting 76% of Ds and Casey only getting 80% also presents that this isn't really a Biden specific issue either. I think a lot of these PA polls are just getting kind of messy Democrat samples.

I imagine most of those "neither/other" people come home to Biden but damn this looks like it's gonna be a close call (at least at the moment).

[Eraserhead]

The question for the Biden campaign becomes how do you get a 35/57 JA into at least breakeven territory come election day? Even at the height of his SOTU bump he could only manage to crack above 40% for a couple weeks.

Yes, that's an atrocious approval rating. He's so lucky he's against Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The question for the Biden campaign becomes how do you get a 35/57 JA into at least breakeven territory come election day? Even at the height of his SOTU bump he could only manage to crack above 40% for a couple weeks.

Lol these are polls not votes stop assuming we gonna lose with a MOE poll the SOTU is once a year

[ajc0918]

Biden is going to be fine in PA. Some of you need a Lexapro prescription.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The lead is exactly what Emerson had so stop Dooming it's 3% MOE do you know that's only 150K votes I am an Eday clerk

[GAinDC]

Biden is going to be fine in PA. Some of you need a Lexapro prescription.

Yeah, i dont think approval rating will be the same proxy this year that it is in other elections. Also, I do think polling and approvals underestimate Biden this time around.

Biden is unpopular because of vibes. Trump is unpopular because of his actions and demeanor. A good campaign can overcome bad vibes.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Biden is going to be fine in PA. Some of you need a Lexapro prescription.

Yeah, i dont think approval rating will be the same proxy this year that it is in other elections. Also, I do think polling and approvals underestimate Biden this time around.,

And both candidates are under 45 here. 15% undecideds tell us nothing. And I have the same attitude towards the other polls doing this as well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They are trying to make Pa a right wing state it's mot

[Progressive Pessimist]

I guess Pennsylvania swapped places with Michigan as the rust belt state to hate Biden for a time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I guess Pennsylvania swapped places with Michigan as the rust belt state to hate Biden for a time.

This is the exact same thing Emerson showed Trump +3

Lol +2 is +180K votes that's it I am an Eday clerk, Biden can come back from it

[holtridge]

Not good news in the Keystone State at the moment. Senator Fedderman said that President Biden would eek out a win in the Keystone State.

[Sbane]

Biggest issue here for Biden is this:

Biden 2020 voters: 80% Biden, 3% Trump, 17% neither/other
Trump 2020 voters: 88% Trump, 5% Biden, 6% neither/other

The thing is, the question is if its real because polls have been all over the place in terms of who is consolidating the most voters. But if it is real, it again points to the truth that Biden voters are not flipping to Trump (ironically, more are flipping the other way around here), but that Biden needs to get the more ambivalent folks who don't want Trump but don't love voting for Biden again either.

Though, Biden only getting 76% of Ds and Casey only getting 80% also presents that this isn't really a Biden specific issue either. I think a lot of these PA polls are just getting kind of messy Democrat samples.

The lack of enthusiasm for Biden is certainly a concern but I do believe most people will hold their nose and vote for him just because they don't want Trump. Turnout will be a problem but the x factor might be increased turnout by young women due to the abortion issue. Without the abortion issue I would have said Trump has the advantage but the advantage flips to Biden due to this issue.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said 3% is 150K votes away and we outvoted Rs in PA Primary 900/700K I see the polls go back to R Lean as soon as Ds perform good in a primary. We just outvoted Rs in Apr 23 and we still get PA polls with Casey leading that has Trump ahead but no PPP or Marist polls that in itself should tell you something

[heatcharger]

Excellent poll for TRUMP. Thank you Scranton!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Excellent poll for TRUMP. Thank you Scranton!

We just outvoted Rs 4/23 in PA 900/700K

[Umengus]

The pollster was off by 4 in 2020. Like en 2016.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These polls that are released are trying to drive a narrative just like MC showing Trump up 10 in NC that Trump is leading