Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[MaxQue]

The former DVW MP is younger and has an higher profile.

[MaxQue]

Wow.

[MaxQue]

The commission has added three dates for hearings in November in Montreal. I guess more people than they expected are not happy.

104 persons wants to be heard, in Montreal.

[MaxQue]

Do these boundary commissions not employ someone who knows how to use a GIS program?

I listened to a report today that said the Ontario Commission not only does have such a person, but during the hearings that person will almost instantly put on the screen (unbidden) a map of the area the presenter is speaking of, and the presenter is given a light pencil to point to the feature on the screen he or she is speaking of.

I suppose it's standard procedure, given than the Parliament hearings of MP after reports looked like that in 2003.

[MaxQue]

Wierd. Ontario commision is calling new hearing in 4 cities, as they changed their proposal about the surrounding areas (Sault Ste. Marie, Cambridge, Oakville, Hamilton).

[MaxQue]

Sounds like everyone just wants to keep their own riding as safe as possible, with no co-ordinated strategy.

In Montreal, both the Liberals and the NDP presented one unique proposal for all the island.

[MaxQue]

Maybe we should swap phone numbers Earl, the NDP seems to love giving me calls.

NDP never called me, and they don't have to feel compelled to do it.

[MaxQue]

There really is a "Jack Layton Ferry Terminal"?

[MaxQue]

I agree with Wilfred Day.  I attended the hearings and there too many "rep by pop" types with their talking points.  

At an NDP assembly on another subject, I heard someone rambling than PEI had 4 seats, while they were the most dense province, than they didn't needed as much.

[MaxQue]

I just noticied on the Quebec proposed map than the core of Saguenay City (Chicoutimi, La Baie) isn't associated with rural Saguenay or Jonquière, but with Charlevoix, which is ridiculous.

Okay, Charlevoix and Sagnenay were in the same seat in the 1800's, but...

[MaxQue]

Manitoba's report is now in.

Mainly name changes. One of the names now sounds like a bus circuit.

Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman isn't even contiguous!

[MaxQue]

Have they done NB yet, or is that from the preliminary map?

That's the preliminary map.

[MaxQue]

PEI proposes its new map.
Nothing is changed from the original proposal, which was to keep the current map.

They cancelled all the hearings, except the one in Charlottetown, where they did a presentation on the current and about the areas of Charlottetown which were growing. Nobody of the sparse audience wanted to comment.

Obviously, they didn't changed from the proposal.

[MaxQue]

Not much better, if at all. Seems they've kept the terrible Edmonton Griesbach name. Looks like Edmonton-Strathcona has reverted to its current boundaries. Over all, not that much change from the preliminary map.

"Edmonton Griesbach" sounds like a name of an eminent professor of languages at an otherwise unknown university.

No, it's a Tory.
Mayor of Edmonton 1906-1907, MP for Edmonton West 1917-1921, Senator 1921-1945.
A former Army base in Edmonton.

[MaxQue]

Each commission finalizes its report on the new electoral districts no later than December 21, 2012. The CEO may grant a two-month extension if requested. (section 20).

To come: Ontario, Quebec, BC, Saskatchewan, and New Brunswick. Any bets?

Well, they haven't looked to keen on extension. Maybe so close to the deadline and now the public hearings are done, they can give an extension (for example to complete the translation). If not, the next three days will be busy for reports!

Or some will deposit late, like Quebec last time.

[MaxQue]

Did anyone see this? http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=on&dir=now/proposals&document=addi&lang=e

Additional changes proposed by the Ontario commission.  This is not their report though, just a few changes to their original proposal.

It was reported by me in early November, and you even commented on it, Earl.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=145422.msg3511919#msg3511919

[MaxQue]

What's surprising is Welland not going NDP federally until very recently.

And before 2006, they never came close of winning and were most often 3rd.

[MaxQue]

I didn't know there was a Francophone community in Welland. It's quite far of the usual areas where they are present (North and East).

[MaxQue]

What, no Ecole Catholique King-Edward?

Does someone is surprised they aren't named about the rulers of the anglican Church?

[MaxQue]

Each commission finalizes its report on the new electoral districts no later than December 21, 2012. The CEO may grant a two-month extension if requested. (section 20).

To come: Ontario, Quebec, BC, Saskatchewan, and New Brunswick. Any bets?

Well, they haven't looked to keen on extension. Maybe so close to the deadline and now the public hearings are done, they can give an extension (for example to complete the translation). If not, the next three days will be busy for reports!

Or some will deposit late, like Quebec last time.

So have there been extensions or are they just all reporting late?

No clue.

[MaxQue]

The first proposal took the NDP down to only one Surrey riding. Will the final report restore two? Prospects for more?
South Cowichan—Juan de Fuca was going to have a transposed NDP majority of 115 votes. Will Cowichan—Malahat—Langford have a higher one?

I'm pretty sure that the final map gives the NDP two Surrey seats: Surrey Centre (actually a renamed Surrey North) and Surrey-Newton. The other good news is that I think the new boundaries make North Vancouver Island and Courtney-Alberni either notionally NDP or at least much lower hanging fruit than they were before.

I think the new Port Moody-Coquitlam looks even harder for Fin Donnelly to retain in then it did with the proposed boundary, now that it includes all of Port Moody, No?
Any timeframe on PQ and ON?

No idea, but the law allows to move the deadline at the end of February if a commission needs it.

[MaxQue]

Reading through the NB report... how many redistributions til they're forced (assuming a stable overall number of seats) to abolish one rural riding and create Moncton West - Riverview and Moncton East - Dieppe? It looks like, though obviously stepping on many people's toes, that would have been the clean and logical thing to do even now, and would probably have happened if Canada used a smaller tolerance.

As it is, the map looks pretty ugly, but it is better than their initial proposal. I just had a look at their deliberations this morning, and they did indeed make an effort to bring Miramichi under the 25% variance, because they came to the realization that there was in fact nothing special about the riding that would result in it having a population below the 25% variance.

I'm not sure if splitting Moncton would be necessary. Eventually the city will have the same population as the quota (if it doesn't already have that) and at that point it will be one riding in itself while Beausejour takes in both Riverview and Dieppe. Maybe at that point they will extend Miramichi further down the coast to compensate. 

New Brunswick is complicated to redistrict because of language. It's the only bilingual province, so there is French and English areas. And the French minority isn't afraid to sue to make its rights respected (see the 2005 special redistricting), so the commission must proceed with caution.

[MaxQue]

Reading through the NB report... how many redistributions til they're forced (assuming a stable overall number of seats) to abolish one rural riding and create Moncton West - Riverview and Moncton East - Dieppe? It looks like, though obviously stepping on many people's toes, that would have been the clean and logical thing to do even now, and would probably have happened if Canada used a smaller tolerance.

As it is, the map looks pretty ugly, but it is better than their initial proposal. I just had a look at their deliberations this morning, and they did indeed make an effort to bring Miramichi under the 25% variance, because they came to the realization that there was in fact nothing special about the riding that would result in it having a population below the 25% variance.

I'm not sure if splitting Moncton would be necessary. Eventually the city will have the same population as the quota (if it doesn't already have that) and at that point it will be one riding in itself while Beausejour takes in both Riverview and Dieppe. Maybe at that point they will extend Miramichi further down the coast to compensate. 

New Brunswick is complicated to redistrict because of language. It's the only bilingual province, so there is French and English areas. And the French minority isn't afraid to sue to make its rights respected (see the 2005 special redistricting), so the commission must proceed with caution.

And yet when the commission in 2003 tried to lump some French areas in Tobique-Mactaquac into Madawaska-Restigouche, there is was a lot of opposition. Someone asked the commission to do it this time, and they said no based on the same reasons (apparently there is harmony between the linguistic groups there, and they are all a bunch of potato farmers).

For interests sake, here is a linguistic map of the province: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/89-642-x/2011005/map-carte/map-carte12-eng.gif (you can see the franco area in the NW crossing into Victoria County)

Well, that area is wierd. Very right-wing and much less insistant on their lingistic rights. Their focus is on money, they remind me of Beauce.

[MaxQue]

I don't think the Quebec commission put enough care on the first draft proposal

They drew some horrors, especially in suburban and rural areas.
At some places, it just looks as if they placed lines at random to get equal population.

[MaxQue]

Parliament began the study of objections of the MPs.

Unlike last time, where it was done by a specific sub-committee of the Procedure Committee, it's the whole Committee which does it, this time.

They already passed 4 reports. Nobody objected in Manitoba, Nova Scotia and PEI, so, it was quite quick to go through.

Newfoundland is done too, there was two objections. First by the two St. John's MPs, over the split the neighbourhoods of The Battery and Signal Hill. This wasn't in the first plan and never talked about at the audience, but the commission did it in their latest map to egalise population after they changed the border with Avalon.

Also, Scott Simms wants to change Bay d’Espoir—Central—Notre Dame in Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame.

Now, they are hearing Alberta. Fort McMurray MP is arguing than Census is wrong, the other Northern MPs complains about the west/east division which was done (they are right, they now have very long and thin ridings where towns in the same areas are in a different riding depending on the side of the highway they are). Wetawiskin MP complains than his rural riding is split into Edmonton and Red Deer urban ridings.

Also, Lethbridge and Medecine Hat MPs complaned too. Some rural areas were moved from Medecine Hat to Bow River, and they aren't happy from it. Mormon Trail was moved into Medecine Hat and they don't want to be with a city, but in a rural riding.

Calgary-Centre MP doesn't want an upper class neighbourhood in her riding, some areas outer neighbourhoods and an industrial park.

Calgary-North-East MP wants to keep some industrial lands in his riding as almost nobody lives there (5 persons, in fact), but his office is there and it would force moving it.

Yellowfield MP also had problems with the North.

So, apparently, Alberta hearings are finished and the report should be adopted this week.