Portugal's politics and elections

[Zanas]

Glad to see the Blóco somewhat holding the PS to a higher standard. If you want confidence and supply, you should at least provide a few policies in the right direction. Or in this case, in the left direction.

Welcome by the way, and good work on the updates!

[Zanas]

But, this week starts with very weird policies from the government. First, it was announced that precarious workers within the public sector will be given an official contract thus becoming normal public employees. But here's the problem, no one knows how many people this includes, with estimates saying 100,000 workers!, and this also violates the public sector code in which for every 2 employees gone, one is hired. And finally, the government didn't specified how much will this cost. Frankly, work precariousness is a horrible thing, but this solution is just awful.

Of course you would say it's awful because it's a left-wing solution. Stable employment, especially in the public sector, equals stable wages, equals consumption and economic activity.  Anyway, glad to see that this government actually proposes and implements left-wing solutions, it' becoming rarer and rarer.

Second, the government announced today that an old debt that Carris, Lisbon public bus company, had, will be assumed by the state. Problem? It is around 800 million euros that will be probably be added to the also record high debt %, that today achieved a record 133% of gdp.
Adding to this was the WTF statement by the PM, that Carris does not exist to have profit but to serve people. What??

Well, it's a perfectly normal statement in my eyes, we just differ on this topic. A public service doesn't have to be profitable. In many cases, it just cannot be. When you have free schools, they're not profitable. When you have free firefighter service, it's not profitable. Public transportation can well be considered this way too, it's just a matter of choices. I'm not saying that the 800 million euro debt is a normal thing, there may have been bad management and it should not necessarily be covered by the government this easily, but the statement in itself is perfectly normal from a left-wing ecological point of view.

[Zanas]

Fascinating, thanks a lot!

[Zanas]

The way I see it, PS should cut their losses at the CDU's (and BE's in votes) expense, because their government doesn't seem to be widely unpopular, and it seems PCP and BE are seen as just being in the way and not making anything really relevant. Expect CDU to fall to 20 or so, a historical low. PSD/CDS should gain a handful of municipalities, but probably nothing fancy and more of a return to the mean. There will probably a record Independent wins, but still not quite many of them.

Or I'm entirely mistaken. I swore to myself I wouldn't ever do predictions, but when you're a junkie...

[Zanas]

What Dijsselbloem said was stupid but what Costa said was even more stupid.

Surely not? Ok, Costa overreacted, it's not very diplomatical from a PM, but he's clearly right. Dijsselbloem should indeed disappear from politics and his like with him.

[Zanas]

I wouldn't have guessed that both PSD and CDS had roughly equal support through all age groups.

[Zanas]

Do you have a few examples of possible CDU gains ? And is there any serious BE target ? Maybe the one municipality they did hold a few years back ?

[Zanas]

This is still a poll for a general election, isn't it ? Will there be polls specifically for the Autumn municipal elections, or the only polling is in this form ? Are there polls for specific cities, at least the largest ones ? I seem to recall some of them from the previous pages, but I may be mixing it up with another thread. ^__^

[Zanas]

How do you explain that with scandal after scandal you are reporting to us, nothing seems to be staining the PS polling figures ? Seems amazing.

[Zanas]

Anyway, more news on the CDS congress. This congress in being filed with ideas and more and more suggestions that CDS can, and will, surpass PSD as the largest party in the center-right and that Cristas can become PM.

Is there a reason for this outbreak of... exuberance?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magical_thinking

[Zanas]

What would you say is CDU's floor ? They seem to be headed towards their worst result ever, but I guess it depends on turnout.

[Zanas]

CDU losing all representation in the Algarve: ouch !