2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I have to say I am very skeptical of the CNN poll. It seems to have overestimated democrats from 2006-2014 (2008 and 2016 wasn't that off). While the republicans are in a poor position, I doubt they're down by anywhere close to 16. According to this poll, republicans were down by 15 in nov 2006, and then ended up only losing by 8. Granted, a +8 win in 2018 makes it likely that the democrats take back the house, but it's nowhere near a landslide like the CNN polls suggest.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

VA-GOV has me feeling down on Dems for 2018, the Gillespie campaign is a good preview of what you will see from candidates across the country. Linking Dems to whatever bogeyman group whether it be MS-13/Antifa and using wedge issues like statues or the pledge. These issues seem to enough to bring home dissatisfied Rs and a good chunk of Indies who disapprove of Trump.

If that were the case then Gillespie would be ahead.

Trump lost Virginia. Even if Northam wins, which sadly isn't a given, if it's by less than Hillary that's a pretty disappointing showing for the Dems considering we're supposedly in the midst of a "Democratic wave" right now. Same for NJ, where it's looking like Dems will roughly match Hillary's margin despite the supposed "wave" and a host of other NJ-specific factors that should be putting the wind at our backs there.

I mean you can't necessarily compare Governor races and Congressional Races. For example, I support Kim Guadagno for NJ Governor but I can't fathom supporting a Republican for the House / Senate right now.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

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Tom Price won the district by over 20% in 2016. Then Handel lost by less than 4%. That's a pretty massive swing lol. The district was anti-Trump, not anti Republican (very wealthy and educated district, which tended to be a lot more anti-Trump than the usual Republican, although Trump is helping mobilize these people to vote democrat more).

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Democrats up 15 in Marist:

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/930501516376657921

Democrats up 13 points, 51-38, in the congressional ballot in Quinnipiac's latest poll.

So. Much. WINNING.

Let me quote SNL:
"Democrats: "we haven't been this confident since the night before Trump won!" "

TBH they had no reason to be confident. PA and Florida were within 1% of going to Trump according to RCP, and Hillary was only winning by 3% in the popular vote.

Dumbass media pundits just kept expecting undecideds to break for Hillary Clinton and ignored the facts.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Conflating Trump disapproval with being pro-Democrat is a dangerous mistake.

Part of what I quoted were separate questions which showed 18-29 year olds preferred Democrats for Congress by a 2:1 margin - same as 2008, more or less. See the quotation box. The approval image was different from that.

Ah, guess I misread your post. But Harvard's new study doesn't have me feeling comfortable.

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Granted, millennials are 22-37 at this point, so not quite the same age group you referred to.

Shut up, I'm a millenial. Gen Z is 2000 on. Any other definition of millenial is dogpoop.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Wow, look at the Republicans surging in the generic ballot: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

Looks like tax reform + democratic sexual misconduct scandals has payed off.

Both of these polls were done before tax reform was even finished. Stop pooping your pants over every little thing. You can't have that many fresh underwear to replace your soiled drawers.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Both of these polls were done before tax reform was even finished. Stop pooping your pants over every little thing. You can't have that many fresh underwear to replace your soiled drawers.

LL is always suspiciously silent when Democrats surge ahead into double digits in the generic poll averages, but johnny-on-the-spot with the doom and glooming when the polling sugar high wears off.

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When you spend all your time on a prediction site and then get the result wrong by 12 points. I don't think this guy can even predict what he's going to eat for lunch, never mind a US election prediction.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

GOP = done!

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The RNC is still do far better than the DNC though (And the RNC raises more money than the DCCC).

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

For someone with a sense of humour you surely weren't able to handle me making fun of you. You also didn't seem to understand my point, in spite of all your genius. 

Voter: Congressman X shouldn't be in Congress
Smoltchanov: You cannot dictate who should be in Congress, only voters can decide that!

Like, if you don't understand how dumb your point is I'm not sure I could explain it to you.

(And I have a PhD too, well I have a PhD, let's put it that way. And I didn't curse you out like a 14-year old trying to look cool either so I must be the biggest genius in human history by your standards. You should probably sit down and listen to me)

Lol, maybe, but I know a fellow teen when I see one. You sir, act like one.

Ah, yes, Gustaf, the teen who has been registered here for 14 years.

Stupid Kamala, Gustaf registered right after he learned how to walk!

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Everyone will say, that democrats are in very good position now, but i remember them being fairly optimistic in 2014, and even 2010 too (and 2016 on Presidential level). Democrats are very skillfull in snatching defeats from jaws of victory

They were dumb for being optimistic in 2010 and 2014 because those were midterm years when democrats were in the white house. Historically, the party in control of the white house does poorly in midterm elections, especially when they are unpopular (like Trump and the GOP is now).

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

What more can we expect from Rain in Nova?

D+18 is only if the entire USA is sunny. Obviously that won't be the case.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Here's a question: Does the wording of the generic ballot question create any systematic biases?  In the Quinnipiac question wording, it asks which party "would you want to see win control of the House of Representatives"?  That's different from asking which party you are going to vote for, since you might like your own member of Congress better than the national party he/she represents.  Does that actually matter to this question, that different pollsters are asking slightly different things?

It's a rather "generic" way to ask the question. It reminds me of the polls we saw in Alabama; voters said they preferred that the Republicans control the US Senate by a nine point margin. Yet Jones managed the win the election. I think it largely depends on the context.

I think the final exit polls were 50 people preferred R vs 45 people preferred D, and Jones won by 1.5

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

WI-01: Randy Bryce raised $1.2 Million in the fourth quarter.

https://mobile.twitter.com/isaacdovere/status/952210279592493056?ref_src=twcamp%5Eshare%7Ctwsrc%5Eios%7Ctwgr%5Eother

Great fundraising numbers for a congressional district, but Paul Ryan has insane cash reserves he can tap into.

I think Ryan will have to do something very visibly dumb or the environment to get worse for Bryce to have a shot.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Everyone who thinks that Democrats win by more than 5 points, should check their mental faculties

Trump got 46% of the vote

Trump has a 39% approval rating

Almost everyone who didn't vote for Trump disapproves of him

Midterms are almost always bad for the president's party

Obama's party lost the generic ballot by 7% when he had a 45% approval rating

Take all these basic and obvious facts together, and even a dumb person can see that dems are likely going to do quite a bit better than +5.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Looks like there's a democratic surge in the making: McLaugh & Associates went from D+1 in mid December to D+3 in January. If this keeps up, democrats will win by 23 come November.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Senate Candidate Phil Bredesen (D-TN) says he raised $518,000 over a 24-day period in his bid for the U.S. Senate

For only 24 days that is really good

Martha destroyed those fundraising numbers. Actually, so did Fincher.

Yeah but Blackburn has been in this race for 2 months longer than Bredesen.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

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Wow.

The memo is still pretty hurtful to Democrats though...

I expected nothing out of that memo and I was still disappointed. It was like, completely devoid of anything. There's a reason Joe Walsh (one of the most conservative people on the planet) of all people is saying this memo was a dud.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I saw some tweet that apparently Randy Bryce "ironstache" has *spent* nearly $1m in Q4 2017, at least half on direct mail. Scam candidate.

What do you mean by this? You do realize his campaign adviser is Kirsten Gillibrand's 2012 Senate campaign adviser. You know, the race where Gillibrand won every county in New York but one. (You can tell he has a great campaign adviser from his excellent videos and twitter account).

I don't think a high class campaign adviser would waste their time with a joke candidate, lol.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

TXGOP on track to get BTFO

https://www.twitter.com/tbonier/status/970418922506850304

That doesn't really suggest a BTFO to me, but it's nice to see higher miniority and women turnout.

I'm thinking Cruz + 3 right now, but conditions could get worse come November.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

How good are the democratic candidates in IL-12, IL-13, and IL-14?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

DCCC announces record fundraising for February.

What is the RCC fundraising tho

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

DCCC announces record fundraising for February.

What is the RCC fundraising tho

The NRCC has not announced their haul yet.

I see. I feel like they have probably outraised the DCCC this month, but we'll see.