PPP: Palin leads GOP primary

[Whacker77]

I think Palin is the prohibitive favorite to win the nomination.  She has all of the grassroots energy and the backing of the radio flame throwers.  She sucks all of the oxygen out of the room and I don't see anyone on that list who can match her.  She will win Iowa and South Carolina and that will be it.

Unfortunately, this will be like a self inflicted gunshot to the head.  She will lose badly because Independents don't see her as credible.  Much of that is her fault, but the media has played a role as well.  The only thing that stops Palin is a "white Knight" who enters when it's apparent Romney and the gang can't stop her.

I think by next summer, Palin will have consolidated her lead as Huck probably doesn't run.  Same possibly for Newt.  Once it becomes apparent she has a cakewalk to the nomination, I see a "cabal" getting together to prod someone like Christie or Jeb off the sidelines as a duty to the party.

[Whacker77]

If Palin is only leading by two now, her chances of being the nominee are very low.

Disagree.  This all comes down to Iowa and South Carolina.  She is the big favorite to win Iowa, especially if Huckabee doesn't run.  After skipping New Hampshire, she'll go down to South Carolina where the evangelical conservative base and Nikki Haley will vote for her.  If she wins those two states, it's over.  The fact Palin is viewed so highly even after quitting two years into her governorship shows how strong she is.

[Whacker77]

Romney was the favorie in Iowa by default because he spent so much money there.  Still, conservatives had serious issues with him and Huckabee, a social conservative, swooped in and won convicingly.  There are no conservative worries about Palin as there were with Romney.  I think they're two very different instances.  Still, polls can change.

[Whacker77]

Not only is Palin the favorite, she is the prohibative favorite.  No matter what she says or how she says it, her followers become that much more devoted to her.  Considering how strong the conservative vote will be in the 2012 primaries, I feel this race is far, far closer to being over than many might want to think.  Unless there is a major shakeup in the field, she wins.