German Elections & Politics

[Tender Branson]

First Infratest Dimap/ARD poll of the election year 2017 (n=1505, Jan. 2-4):

Federal voting intentions



Job approval of major politicians



Job approval of the CDU/CSU/SPD government



Job approval of the CDU/CSU/SPD government, by party



Most important issues for 2017



40% refugees/immigration
11% security
  7% social policies

How much trust do you have in the following institutions ?



88-11 The police
54-45 The federal government
36-54 The German intelligence services

Does Germany have advantages or disadvantages from immigration ?



Does Germany have advantages or disadvantages from immigration ? By party.



Immigration: I have concerns that ...



62-36 crime will rise
55-43 the influence of Islam in Germany will become too strong
18-81 that competition for jobs will increase

Is the situation for people like you better now than 50 years ago ?



58% better
11% the same
17% worse
13% cannot judge

Is the situation for people like you better now than 50 years ago ? By party.



Do you personally feel safe and secure in Germany ?



73-26 Yes

Do you personally feel safe and secure in Germany ? By party.



Opinions about the terror threat:



79-19 video surveillance should be increased
57-39 generally, the country is well-prepared to deal with terrorist attacks
43-56 I'm more vigilant now and look for suspicious persons and items
36-62 I now avoid big masses of people, such as train stations etc.

[Tender Branson]

   The party breakdown by whether immigration is advantageous or not is interesting. I'm surprised that so many Green voters viewed it negatively, and would have thought that Linke supporters would have been a little less supportive as well.

I'd be one of them.

[Tender Branson]

    If somehow the CSU didn't get a majority in the next Bayern Landtag election and the results were similar to the current poll (say the Linke and FDP got seats in this scenario), would we see a CSU FDP coalition or would a lot of the CSU want to try a CSU AFD coalition?

That depends on some factors: For example, current Gov. Seehofer has announced that he won't run for re-election in 2018. The most likely successor will be Markus Söder, who is the overwhelming favourite not only among all people polled, but especially among CSU-voters, according to the poll above.

Söder is AfD-light in his talk and policies, so he could win back some AfD-voters over the next 1.5 years, which means the CSU won't need a coalition partner anyway.

If the CSU somehow loses their majority (which I doubt, 70% of voters are happy with the current CSU-government performance), the AfD is certainly an option for the Söder-CSU, but he could easily pick the FDP too (they would make no noise in his coalition), while the SPD and AfD would be too demanding partners.

[Tender Branson]

Too bad that the AfD decided to keep Höcke today.

This guy is a nut and deserved to be kicked out for his recent comments.

[Tender Branson]

In the Austrian case, I think it is likely polls overestimated Hofer's support all along, which seems to be the case for the FPÖ in every election. Regardless, it is obvious that Hofer's support in the re-run was lower than in the first turn (though still higher than Trump's!). I don't know whether people stayed home in the re-run because they thought Hofer had been too moderate; didn't he go on the attack in quite a harsh way in the last debates with VdB? But even if your assumption is true, he might have lost voters by moving to the right too.

There were many factors contributing to Hofer's loss, which I have posted in the Austrian thread.

But mostly, Austrians went with the "safer" choice - because Austrians like continuity and not experiments. The Gertrude-video also helped to bring out a lot of anti-Hofer voters in the end.

Nonetheless, Hofer was the best candidate that the FPÖ could ever produce ...

[Tender Branson]

But mostly, Austrians went with the "safer" choice - because Austrians like continuity and not experiments.

This would be a meaningful frame if VdB had won 65/35, but I don't see any reason to make generalizations like this in a close election like that. Over 45% of Austrians apparently don't think VdB was the "safer choice."

He was way too aggressive towards the end (especially in the last debate), engaging in full character assassination of VdB and his family, after portraying himself as "Mr. Nice Guy" throughout the campaign. This is something that many "swingy" Austrians didn't like because it re-inforced the image of Hofer as a wolf in sheeps clothing and considering that the douche Trump was elected a few weeks before that, these swingy Austrians decided to back VdB and go with the safer choice ...

[Tender Branson]

YouGov poll:

32.5% CDU/CSU (n.c. compared with last week)
26.0% SPD (+5.0)
13.0% AfD (-1.5)
10.5% Left (-0.5)
  7.5% Greens (-1.0)
  6.5% FDP (-1.0)
  4.0% Others (-1.0)

[Tender Branson]

28 is the new 26 ...

[Tender Branson]

New Insa poll, SPD surge to overtake CDU/CSU

SPD               31
CDU/CSU       30
AfD                12
Linke             10
Green              7
FDP                 6

[Tender Branson]

A close race should be good news for turnout.

Probably around 75% this year.

[Tender Branson]

Red-Red-Green with a small majority of 1 point in the new INSA poll:

[Tender Branson]

New NRW state election poll (in May):







Kraft also has a 64-33 job approval rating.

[Tender Branson]

Looks like Schulz and the SPD has peaked.

In the new YouGov poll, CDU gains 1.5% and the SPD loses 1% compared with last week.

This happens at the same time as comedians take on the blank slate Schulz more vigorously ...

[Tender Branson]

Today, 3 traditional "ash-wednesday" beer tent meetings took place, one for the SPD, one for the CSU and one for the AfD.

At the SPD event, Austrian Chancellor Kern was present and giving a speech.



At the CSU event ("Bavaria First"), Austrian Interior Minister Sobotka was present.

And at the AfD event, FPÖ-leader Strache was giving a speech ... which was better liked by the audience than the speech of AfD-leader Frauke Petry:



http://www.mittelbayerische.de/bayern/niederbayern-nachrichten/strache-stiehlt-petry-die-schau-21764-art1492609.html

[Tender Branson]

New Saarland poll by INSA (the state election will be held on March 26):

36% CDU (+1)
33% SPD (+2)
12% Left (-4)
  7% AfD (+7)
  4% FDP (+3)
  4% Greens (-1)
  4% Others (-8)

[Tender Branson]

This is what I found recently:



"Increase pensions like in Austria: 800€ more, on average !"

What the hell are they talking about ?

I'm not aware that our pensions increased by 800€ (I guess, a year).

Pensions are usually upped by the rate of inflation, or slightly higher, each year (+1 to 3% annually).

It seems they are lying ...

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, I just checked it:

* German pensions were raised 2.0% for 2017
* Austrian pensions were raised by 1.7% for 2017

The average pension in both countries is about 1200€ a month, so if the Left wants to raise it by 800€ a year (67€/month), that would be a 6% annual increase.

Again: what are they talking about in their state election poster ?

[Tender Branson]

Pretty sure it means that our pensions should be increased by 800€ so we reach the same standard as Austria has for a while now. It doesn't mean that your pensions were increased by 800€ lately only that yours are 800€ higher right now. It's of course heavy populism since our pension systems work differently but overall it is true that our pensions are pretty low while yours are quite a bit higher.

You think your pensions are really that much lower on average as ours ?

I don't really believe that. Maybe in East Germany, but even these pensions are streamlined with the Western ones by the middle of the 2020s ...

[Tender Branson]

You only get your pension 12 times a year in Germany ? Didn't knew that.

That of course explains it ...

[Tender Branson]

Infratest has also released a federal election poll for RP, but strangely not for the bigger state BW.





They only posted a Chancellor poll for BW:

[Tender Branson]

Why are the left so strong there compared to other western states?

Because of the above-mentioned Oskar Lafontaine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oskar_Lafontaine

[Tender Branson]

Latest Saarland poll (state elections on Sunday):



Changes compared with 2012 state election:

CDU: -0.2%
SPD: +2.4%
Left: -3.1%
AfD: +6.0%
FDP: +3.8%
Greens: -1.0%
Pirates: -7.4%
Others: -0.5%

[Tender Branson]

How arr the olds going to vote by the way?

The olds are reliable CDU, SPD and Left voters.

Greens, FDP and AfD already do not play a major role in the overall electorate in Saarland, but their share among younger and middle-aged voters is probably higher than their overall result.

How likely is it that the Green vote will go down below 4% as Green voters fear just missing the 5% threshold and go en masse to SPD and Die Linke?

Very likely. I see the Greens going down to below 5% on Sunday, because the SPD has a good chance to win 1st place. The FDP has good chances to get above 5%.

[Tender Branson]

A new ZDF poll shows the CDU opening a 5-point lead in Saarland, ahead of the Sunday election:

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for the Saarland state election tomorrow:

36.1% CDU
31.6% SPD
11.8% Left
  6.3% AfD
  5.1% FDP
  4.2% Greens
  4.9% Others

Turnout: 67.5%