Ontario 2018 election

[King of Kensington]

I can see, based on polling which has the PCs stagnant (again referred previously, using Ipsos SW), PC seats that I see going NDP, even if they are the opposition are:

Chatham-Kent-Leamington (this new boundary gains all NDP polls from Essex)
Sarnia-Lambton

If trends continue, and the PCs start to slip, which is completely realistic:

Huron-Bruce
Perth-Wellington
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
Kitchener-Conestoga
Oxford
Elgin-Middlesex-London
** everyone of these seats saw a decrease in both PC and OLP vote and Increase for the NDP in 2014, and I expect that overall trend to continue.

Well I admire your optimism and I hope you're right.  But I think there may be more of a urban-rural split than a "universal swing" model suggests, and I don't think the conditions are there for a Rae '90 type result in rural/rurban SW Ontario.

[PeteB]

Who would give Doug a high-profile character endorsement...?

Anyone know Hurricane Hazel’s thoughts on this election?

You'd be surprised...and yes, HH is going to be one of them!

[PeteB]

Well the tape is out - so far just conjecture.  No juicy parts.

PC Leader Doug Ford participated in collection of bogus party memberships, audio recording suggests
https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/05/24/pc-leader-doug-ford-participated-in-collection-of-bogus-party-memberships-audio-recording-suggests.html

[lilTommy]

Right, but the gains are from the OLP, especially in suburban Toronto. In places where the OLP did poorly in 2014, like SW Ontario, the PCs are not going to be seeing similar gains because there's less OLP vote for them to gain from to begin with.

There isn't likely going to be seat gains for the PCs in SW Ontario, but they're likely to keep what they have.  The NDP will almost certainly succeed in driving the Liberals out of Waterloo region and London, but defeating PC MPPs in the region is harder.

I can see, based on polling which has the PCs stagnant (again referred previously, using Ipsos SW), PC seats that I see going NDP, even if they are the opposition are:

Chatham-Kent-Leamington (this new boundary gains all NDP polls from Essex)
Sarnia-Lambton

If trends continue, and the PCs start to slip, which is completely realistic:

Huron-Bruce
Perth-Wellington
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
Kitchener-Conestoga
Oxford
Elgin-Middlesex-London
** everyone of these seats saw a decrease in both PC and OLP vote and Increase for the NDP in 2014, and I expect that overall trend to continue.

Hey, that's my riding! I'm not very optimistic about it flipping, even if the NDP end up being ahead of the PCs. Only way it happens is if Woodstock/Ingersoll go very strongly NDP. Hardeman is really strong in the rural portions of the district. The Liberal areas could very well be OLP 14/PC 18 areas (all the Woodstock Liberal 2014 polls are in relatively wealthy areas of town).

Very cool! You'd have a good on the ground feel. Looks like in 2014, Ingersoll went really strong for the NDP, Woodstock looks mixed and Tillsonburg is leaning PC. Whats the likely hood of the NDP increasing in Woodstock?, looks like North of Dundas Street was mostly PC/OLP, some NDP strength. And in Tillsonburg?, most PC support was west of Hwy 15.
As mentioned, this could be an urban/small town and Rural divide. With Woodstock/Ingersoll/Tilsonburg making up about 70000 of the population. The NDP would need some rural polls, more then the 3 or so they won in 2014.

[DC Al Fine]

Who would give Doug a high-profile character endorsement...?

Anyone know Hurricane Hazel’s thoughts on this election?

You'd be surprised...and yes, HH is going to be one of them!

Makes sense. I used to live in Mississauga as a kid. My dad has a story about Hazel chewing out someone on a call in show for wanting a crosswalk a couple hundred feed from another crosswalk. Sounded very Fordish.

[King of Kensington]

Maybe Etobicoke Centre will be a "Lib Dem" type holdout.

[mileslunn]

What was the overall (%) result in what the pollsters call Northern Ontario in 2014? With the Liberals in third, should the NDP make gains in Thunder Bay?

Using the proper definition (i.e. not Parry Sound) of Northern Ontario (which is what I use at EKOS), the 2014 numbers were:

NDP: 42%
OLP: 35%
PC: 18%

By the way guys, we just into field again yesterday and... wow... we're seeing some movement.

Could you please risk getting fired and give us #'s?

Old news.  Your boss beat you to it a couple of hours ago.

https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/999648270090579969

Oh, I know. That's why I feel safe telling everyone.

If it shows NDP closing the gap with PCs or tying it up, nothing shocking even though sizeable shift from last poll.  Now if it shows PCs rebounding then that will be a shock.  Mainstreet also suggests major shifts so their subscribers poll will probably be the first hint.

[mileslunn]

Frank Graves has already hinted NDP has a strong lead which would be huge if true and suggests a surge going on.  Will also be interesting to see mainstreet's numbers but at the moment I think an NDP win is looking more and more likely.  Not certain, but growing.

[_]

If the NDP are actually leading this is going to be amazing, probably not 1990 level amazing but I can definitely see a narrow NDP Majority.  If the NDP start winning the 905 by decent numbers however....

[DL]

I heard through the NDP grapevine that they are shockingly finding themselves in contention in Elgin-Middlesex-London

[mileslunn]

I heard through the NDP grapevine that they are shockingly finding themselves in contention in Elgin-Middlesex-London

Wow that is big as Tories usually get around 50% or more there in recent elections so suggests they are not just picking up Liberals but PCs too.  Will be interesting to see how things play out the next week, but for the first time, if I had to bet money, I would bet on the NDP winning instead of PCs, but still wouldn't be a lot at this moment.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I heard through the NDP grapevine that they are shockingly finding themselves in contention in Elgin-Middlesex-London

You have to take such rumours with industrial quantities of salt, but they won Elgin in 1990 - though given who was elected there probably wished they hadn't!

[PeteB]

I heard through the NDP grapevine that they are shockingly finding themselves in contention in Elgin-Middlesex-London

I think that the NDP are genuinely overwhelmed by all this.  We'll see how capable Andrea Horwath is in gearing up a party of protest and moulding it into a potential party of government.  Bob Rae did it on the fly and it didn't quite work out, but he also had a perfectly split OLP-PC vote assisting him  Horwath has no such luck (unless Ford somehow shoots himself in the foot).

BTW, I have heard about that EML poll (where the PC incumbent Yurek is neck and neck with the NDP challenger) and I find it hard to accept, knowing that PC had close to 50% in the past, but we'll see.

[lilTommy]

I heard through the NDP grapevine that they are shockingly finding themselves in contention in Elgin-Middlesex-London

I think that the NDP are genuinely overwhelmed by all this.  We'll see how capable Andrea Horwath is in gearing up a party of protest and moulding it into a potential party of government.  Bob Rae did it on the fly and it didn't quite work out, but he also had a perfectly split OLP-PC vote assisting him  Horwath has no such luck (unless Ford somehow shoots himself in the foot).

BTW, I have heard about that EML poll (where the PC incumbent Yurek is neck and neck with the NDP challenger) and I find it hard to accept, knowing that PC had close to 50% in the past, but we'll see.

YAY, I literally, just above, had Elgin-Middlesex-London on my list of highly realistic possible NDP pick ups.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I heard through the NDP grapevine that they are shockingly finding themselves in contention in Elgin-Middlesex-London

Wow that is big as Tories usually get around 50% or more there in recent elections so suggests they are not just picking up Liberals but PCs too.  Will be interesting to see how things play out the next week, but for the first time, if I had to bet money, I would bet on the NDP winning instead of PCs, but still wouldn't be a lot at this moment.

Yea I switched my official prediction to the NDP winning 4-5 days ago. Hard to say if it will be a 1990 style blowout or a squeaker. There is also chance of the NDP winning the popular vote by 1-2% but getting less seats than the PC's.

[Hatman 🍁]

Frank Graves has already hinted NDP has a strong lead which would be huge if true and suggests a surge going on.  Will also be interesting to see mainstreet's numbers but at the moment I think an NDP win is looking more and more likely.  Not certain, but growing.

Here's what I will leak: the pre-weighted numbers show a tie.

[King of Kensington]

It would be kinda hilarious to see the NDP sweep SW Ontario and the PCs sweep Scarborough.

[DC Al Fine]

It would be kinda hilarious to see the NDP sweep SW Ontario and the PCs sweep Scarborough.

10/10 would look at that map again.

[mileslunn]

Frank Graves has already hinted NDP has a strong lead which would be huge if true and suggests a surge going on.  Will also be interesting to see mainstreet's numbers but at the moment I think an NDP win is looking more and more likely.  Not certain, but growing.

Here's what I will leak: the pre-weighted numbers show a tie.

Okay that makes sense and is in line with others.  Also that could be key as older voters more likely to vote, nonetheless if NDP surging those numbers will likely change by election day.

[mileslunn]

Frank Graves has already hinted NDP has a strong lead which would be huge if true and suggests a surge going on.  Will also be interesting to see mainstreet's numbers but at the moment I think an NDP win is looking more and more likely.  Not certain, but growing.

Here's what I will leak: the pre-weighted numbers show a tie.

My guess is then PCs still lead amongst older voters, but NDP way ahead amongst millennials thus as I've always said whether they show up or not is key.  While I cannot divulge numbers, mainstreet seems to suggest NDP surge amongst millennials but less so amongst Boomers and Gen Xer's.

[PeteB]

Well the tape is out - so far just conjecture.  No juicy parts.

PC Leader Doug Ford participated in collection of bogus party memberships, audio recording suggests
https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/05/24/pc-leader-doug-ford-participated-in-collection-of-bogus-party-memberships-audio-recording-suggests.html

Doesn't look this story has legs

Doug Ford calls Kinga Surma ‘family,’ Liberal-leaked audio ‘desperate’

Doug Ford described Kinga Surma – the Etobicoke Centre PC candidate he is accused of canvassing for memberships alongside in a 2016 audio tape – as “family” during a Thursday event in Tillsonburg, Ont.

[Hatman 🍁]

One more important caveat: we have been in field for just one night.

[mileslunn]

One more important caveat: we have been in field for just one night.

Fair enough although I would think today's numbers would be similar but perhaps depending on the size you might get a correction.  Regardless of what comes out, I doubt it will show double digit NDP lead, at least not yet, and pretty sure regardless of what happens today PCs will be lower than last time.

[mileslunn]

One more important caveat: we have been in field for just one night.

Also how many respondents?  If say only 100 or 200 it might be due to large margin of error.  If 400-500 more likely to be in the ballpark.

[Hatman 🍁]

One more important caveat: we have been in field for just one night.

Also how many respondents?  If say only 100 or 200 it might be due to large margin of error.  If 400-500 more likely to be in the ballpark.

More than 500.