Ontario 2018 election

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God bless Ontario!

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You know, if the left and centre in Ontario is mentally preparing itself to cede minority-majority banlieue districts to the radical right... well I don't even have the words to convey the necessary contempt, actually.

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or outside (more blue collar).

How many card-carrying members of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario can be honestly described in such terms? Three?

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Ah but I did not write 'voters' but 'card-carrying members'

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Been meaning to ask this for a while, but what is the profile of Northern Ontario? First Nations? resource extraction?

Both. Also a substantial Francophone population in parts and other industrial activity here and there.

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That's mostly Tradition.

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This is the buzz of the day: Doug Ford promising to pave over the Greenbelt, more or less
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6R68vvTuO7w&feature=youtu.be

Given that planning disasters are a Toronto tradition by this point, I guess this will prove to be grimly popular?

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Los Angeles is a great example of urban sprawl...

So is Toronto. And with, bluntly, considerably less excuse.

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Miles, are the Liberals actually still acting like they still might win this thing?

At least publicly they are. I suspect deep down they all know they are done.

Well I doubt any major party would ever concede an election publicly or admit their not going to win before polls close. Conceding before hand would risk suppressing your parties turnout making the result for your party worse then it could potentially end up being.

Worse: it would cause a stampede of soft support to parties that have not conceded. People don't like to feel their vote is wasted...

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This feels like in 2011 trying to figure out what seats the NDP were going to win in Quebec (tuns out, most of them).

Or Alberta in 2015.

Yeah, it'd be your classic Canadian Election situation really. Because party loyalty in general is quite weak and confirmed partisan die hards are a pretty small share of the electorate, when there's a really big surge it's usually a case of painting large sections of the map the colour of [insert party here], with the seats that don't fall often being more random than those that do.

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I don't think a lot of voters realize how radical the NDP is.

The Ontario NDP is about as radical as a cup of weak tea and a digestive biscuit.

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I would suggest perhaps not overanalysing subsamples.

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Yeah I was thinking of the NY Niagara. And I guess I just have connotations associated with the name "Barry" as a town.

The Niagara region in general is industrial/post-industrial. But,yes, Barrie is not much like Barry...

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accidentally electing an NDP government to own the libs

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The result last time was Lib 38.7, PC 31.2, NDP 23.7. In polling terms this translates as 39, 31 and 24. If we assume - for the sake of argument - that the Ipsos poll is reflected on election day then the Liberals would be down 16pts, the PCs up 5pts and the NDP up 13pts. These changes won't be uniform - when there is general movement of this sort then parties typically gain most where they have the most to gain. For the party losing shedloads of votes its a bit more complex - typically a combination of losing most where they have the most to lose plus total collapse in certain hitherto middling performing seats. This would be very much one of those 'all that is solid melts into air' electoral situations in which, frankly, seat-by-seat projections are worth approximately as much the Venezuelan bolivar...

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Also Ford underperforms among the wealthy compared to a more generic PC leader.

Yeah but so did Hudak so that's factored in somewhat.

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Of course we don't know entirely or exactly what the Ford effect (if any) will be particularly - for good or ill he's not his brother.

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I don't know how much his personal popularity...

Ah but even there... was that even his personal popularity? Or his brother's transferred over to him? I suppose we'll soon find out.

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Re Hudak, more so in 2011 than 2014--his civil-servant-bashing '14 campaign actually helped him in wealthier polls (check comparative polling maps in those years for proof)

Bit of a dead cat bounce, but yes, that's so. I do wonder whether there's a chance of the Ontario Liberals ending up in a situation to the LibDems here in 2017; i.e. credible (even good in some cases) results in seats with heavy concentrations of higher professionals, total disaster everywhere else. I also wonder whether the extremely suburban Ford will do quite as well as Hudak in the countryside - Hudak era PC maps stink of cow sh!t after all...

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It's also a fact that the NDP has never been successful in penetrating small town Ontario, except in the North. Andrea Horvath is a formidable campaigner but excuse me for being somewhat sceptical that the NDP will do it now.  These smaller communities have often never voted by more than 10-15% for the NDP, and I am not convinced that it will suddenly change now.

Might want to take a quick glance over the 1990 election before using words like 'never'. Different circumstances of course, but not exactly 'never'.

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why hello sailor

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I heard through the NDP grapevine that they are shockingly finding themselves in contention in Elgin-Middlesex-London

You have to take such rumours with industrial quantities of salt, but they won Elgin in 1990 - though given who was elected there probably wished they hadn't!

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Constituency polling is terrible in All Nations, but none more so than Canada...

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Wouldn't Bob Rae have basically run a "sorry not sorry" campaign in 1995?  By extension, I suppose Doug Ford pratfalled away a commanding lead a la Lyn McLeod, and Horwath is the commanding new Mike Harris...

Second Time As Farce?

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I don't know what made him think this was remotely a good idea.

Desperation?

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If that were to happen - do not count chickens etc - then the pattern would not be uniform.