If you look at the demographic numbers...things stack up quite well for my argument...
22 percent of Anabaptists voted for McCain.... 17 percent of the vote.... (this is in line with trends that state that 17% of Americans call themselves members of the Religious Right)
45 percent of the Catholics voted for McCain...since Catholics are kinda down-scale, most of them voted on social issues....and since 25 percent of voters are Catholic and I am guess 60 percent of McCain voters in this demographic voted against abortion than anything else, I am guessing this is about 7 percent of voters came from this.
That's 24 percent. You are also forgeting neo-arians (JWs, Mormons et al.). They voted for McCain at a rate of 80 percent. They are about 6 percent of the voting population. I am guessing that 60 percent them voted against social constitutionalism. Therefore, I would say that this is about 3 percent of the vote.
That's 27 percent of the vote. The election was 53-46 Obama. Roughly 10 percent were undecided going into the end campaign. Let's say that McCain slightly won the undecideds....say 60-40. That would mean that Obama's base was 49% and McCain's was 40%. 27 out of 40 is about 68% of the Republican base. Not quite 70%...but it is still pretty monolithic.
27/40= 68% of the GOP base
This may or may not be right...and I am shooting from the hip a bit with these estimates...and relying on demographic stereotypes...which was actually a pretty good predictor of this election, if you use Nate Silver as an example. However, maybe we can all get some clarity on this issue if you can make a better, more nuanced model. I doubt you will, though.
From what I understand, there are 3 "wings" of the post-Reagan GOP: social conservatives, fiscal conservatives, and foreign-policy hawks. I think these 3 wings are prioritized according to the changing times. For example, Reagan came in focusing on fiscal policy. By the end of his term the party was focused on foreign policy. Bush-41 continued that focus, but was ultimately done in by the economy. By '94 the focus was again on economic issues and the GOP continued with a focus on fiscal conservatism throughout the Clinton years. In 2000, I would say a lot of the so-cons took over. I think a relatively large portion of the Clinton-to-Bush vote was a reaction to the Lewinsky/perjury affair. By 2004, of course, it was foreign policy on steroids. Now, it's back to fiscal policy. What I mean here is that I don't see any ideology holding a permanent plurality over the GOP. Therefore, my estimate woud be that each wing constitutes around 33% (one-third) of "the base".
I see your point and I respect your numbers. I don't have numbers of my own, so I'm gonna trust yours and point out where I differ with you.
(1) I need some clarification regarding Anabaptists. Are you saying that Anabaptists account for 17% of the national electorate? Or that Anabaptists accounted for 17% of the McCain vote? And if 22% of Anabaptists voted for McCain, how many voted for Obama?
(2) Regarding Catholics, I think your 60% number is too high. Most Catholics don't vote on social issues, IMO.
For your number regarding Anabaptists where I'm unclear, I'll err on the side of your argument. So let's say Anabaptists voted ONLY on social issues. That's 17% of McCain's vote. Plus JWs and Mormons, that's 20%. So in order to hit my 33% estimate, 13% of Catholic Republicans would have to have based their vote on social issues. I think 13% is too high.
So basically, my biggest disagreement with you is with regard to the Catholic vote. Again, I don't have numbers of my own and am basing it purely on experience. So maybe we'll agree to disagree.
How can you help somebody sell something if they have nothing to sell, let alone any consumers? That's why we have periods of economic consolidation, like the one that Obama is going to put us through right now.
What does "economic consolidation" mean? I tried looking it up but couldn't get a solid definition. Anyway, my question to you is how do higher taxes, higher trade barriers, increased national debt, and more gov't regulations help anyone sell anything?
