Slate/Votecastr real time election projections

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Slate itself said that they would post their first projections at 11am ET, right?  I assume that's when we'll get something.

Yeah, you're right. So description on votecastr.us is very missleading/wrong...

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Colorado projection Clinton 46% vs 44%.   Right?

Johnson 7.4%

Stein 1.6%

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Yep Clinton 46.0 - Trump 44.0 - Johnson 7.4

[Mr. Morden]

Yep Clinton 46.0 - Trump 44.0 - Johnson 7.4

Where are you seeing that?

[boske94]

I think that this model is inaccurate. They know only turnout and project results based on pre-election polling. In real exit polls they ask voters after they vote, and here they don't aske anyone about anything. This makes no sense to me.

[bilaps]

So, this is projection on 1,53m votes in Colorado. Anyone can tell me for who is this good? Who votes on election day more in CO, D or R?

[bilaps]

Yep Clinton 46.0 - Trump 44.0 - Johnson 7.4

Where are you seeing that?

VICE news stream

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Yep Clinton 46.0 - Trump 44.0 - Johnson 7.4

Where are you seeing that?

https://news.vice.com/story/live-election-day-turnout-results-with-votecastry?cl=fp

[Gustaf]

Isn't Colorado a state where GOP wins early vote and Democrats election day vote? So it makes sense?

[dspNY]

Isn't Colorado a state where GOP wins early vote and Democrats election day vote? So it makes sense?

Yes. More Dems turn in ballots on election day

[muon2]

I think that this model is inaccurate. They know only turnout and project results based on pre-election polling. In real exit polls they ask voters after they vote, and here they don't aske anyone about anything. This makes no sense to me.

This is the model that big campaigns have used for years, and one of the consultants on this project is Obama's former director of microtargeting. That was a very successful electoral forecast model. It's also the model used by networks to make state calls. Exit polls are less accurate in general since their sample size is smaller than this method.

[alomas]

Based on their model Clinton leads Trump by 2.7 points in Colorado with 54.4% expected votes in.

[boske94]

I think that this model is inaccurate. They know only turnout and project results based on pre-election polling. In real exit polls they ask voters after they vote, and here they don't aske anyone about anything. This makes no sense to me.

This is the model that big campaigns have used for years, and one of the consultants on this project is Obama's former director of microtargeting. That was a very successful electoral forecast model. It's also the model used by networks to make state calls. Exit polls are less accurate in general since their sample size is smaller than this method.

Exit polls cannot be less accurate because they interview people after voting, and only real voters, not likely like preelection polls.

[muon2]

Isn't Colorado a state where GOP wins early vote and Democrats election day vote? So it makes sense?

Yes. More Dems turn in ballots on election day

CO is all vote by mail now.

So, this is projection on 1,53m votes in Colorado. Anyone can tell me for who is this good? Who votes on election day more in CO, D or R?

This is similar to the RCP polling average (43.3-40.4-6.1-3.1) with undecided votes spread proportionally to the candidates (46.6-43.5-6.6-3.3). I'd say that's good for Clinton in CO.

[Angrie]

This is the model that big campaigns have used for years, and one of the consultants on this project is Obama's former director of microtargeting. That was a very successful electoral forecast model. It's also the model used by networks to make state calls. Exit polls are less accurate in general since their sample size is smaller than this method.

Yeah, this is the most accurate available indicator of what is the actual current situation. But it is really just *current* situation based on the modeled votes of the people who have already voted. The people who have already voted may not be perfectly representative of those whose ballots will be turned in later in the day (and probably/predictably are not).

FWIW, they showed their current county map on the Vice News stream, and it looked exactly the same as the 2012 CO map, except with Conjeos country flipped R and Alamosa county a tie.

[bilaps]

Based on their model Clinton leads Trump by 2.7 points in Colorado with 54.4% expected votes in.

Where did you find the exact numbers?

[alomas]

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/11/08/votecastr_early_vote_estimate_colorado_looking_very_very_tight.html

[SunSt0rm]

Is CLinton +2 in Colorado now, good news or bad news for her?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/11/08/votecastr_early_vote_estimate_colorado_looking_very_very_tight.html

Thanks!

[muon2]

I think that this model is inaccurate. They know only turnout and project results based on pre-election polling. In real exit polls they ask voters after they vote, and here they don't aske anyone about anything. This makes no sense to me.

This is the model that big campaigns have used for years, and one of the consultants on this project is Obama's former director of microtargeting. That was a very successful electoral forecast model. It's also the model used by networks to make state calls. Exit polls are less accurate in general since their sample size is smaller than this method.

Exit polls cannot be less accurate because they interview people after voting, and only real voters, not likely one.

This model is also based on real voters. The CO Secretary of State identifies everyone who voted by name and location in their database, just not who they voted for. The statistics are huge. It's better than a small sample of exit voters where you know who they voted for.

[bilaps]

I think that this model is inaccurate. They know only turnout and project results based on pre-election polling. In real exit polls they ask voters after they vote, and here they don't aske anyone about anything. This makes no sense to me.

This is the model that big campaigns have used for years, and one of the consultants on this project is Obama's former director of microtargeting. That was a very successful electoral forecast model. It's also the model used by networks to make state calls. Exit polls are less accurate in general since their sample size is smaller than this method.

Exit polls cannot be less accurate because they interview people after voting, and only real voters, not likely one.

This model is also based on real voters. The CO Secretary of State identifies everyone who voted by name and location in their database, just not who they voted for. The statistics are huge. It's better than a small sample of exit voters where you know who they voted for.

I agree. But I have a question, is there some sort of margin of error like in the polls?

[Mr. Morden]

7.4% for Johnson in Colorado almost exactly matches the 538 projection of 7.5% for him. 

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Yep. Slate gave following explanation.

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[ursulahx]

OK, I've decided I'm not going to look at these figures, it's too stressful.

[Angrie]

Is CLinton +2 in Colorado now, good news or bad news for her?

About in line with projections from e.g. 538. A bit better for Trump than them, but that is countered by the fact that the additional votes that come in are more likely than not to be a bit more Dem leaning.