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Mayor Weinberger also not running. Philslide inbound.

Obvious junk is obvious.

There won't be a six point margin this year, and certainly not for Trump. He would be happy to win the popular vote at all.

     While I do agree Trump doesn't win by 6, I'll just point out that this is the same mindset Atlas brought to the table in 2014. We all know how that went.

We've all been wrong over time. And I honestly would be more worried if this poll was out in late September or into October (assuming other polls were as they are, but even then this one is an outlier).

     Sure, having two (or more) sides in a factual dispute means someone has to be wrong. I bring it up to caution that maybe we should be more circumspect than saying "obvious junk is obvious", because I heard that once before when the obvious junk actually turned out to be fairly accurate.

Way back in 2016, Trafalgar polls were deemed as rubbish and dismissed as bogus. They were even rated as C by Nate Silver, but turned out to be very accurate. Their methodology used is still a bit questionable to some, but we don’t know how they ended up being spot on in 2016.

yeah and how did they do in 2022

I wonder if it could have saved Donnelly. Heitkamp lost by too much and McCaskill was never going to vote against him because she's a resist lib at heart despite being from a red state.

Trump win Nevada/Arizona
and if trump win Michigan it a sign that Biden have lost horribly.

You contribute nothing but spam to this board. Cut it out

What do you contribute?

A lot more than that guy. By the way, nobody asked you for your thoughts

Well Can you stop being Rude? nobody asking and liking that your being prestigious asshole to other members here.

If you stop talking nonsense, nobody will be rude to you

The only thing he's right about is that there's no equivalence, the IDF murdered babies in incubators and has killed about 100x more children than Hamas, obviously they're worse

https://twitter.com/MarkAmesExiled/status/1792570458824495126

Obvious junk is obvious.

There won't be a six point margin this year, and certainly not for Trump. He would be happy to win the popular vote at all.

     While I do agree Trump doesn't win by 6, I'll just point out that this is the same mindset Atlas brought to the table in 2014. We all know how that went.

We've all been wrong over time. And I honestly would be more worried if this poll was out in late September or into October (assuming other polls were as they are, but even then this one is an outlier).

     Sure, having two (or more) sides in a factual dispute means someone has to be wrong. I bring it up to caution that maybe we should be more circumspect than saying "obvious junk is obvious", because I heard that once before when the obvious junk actually turned out to be fairly accurate.

Way back in 2016, Trafalgar polls were deemed as rubbish and dismissed as bogus. They were even rated as C by Nate Silver, but turned out to be very accurate. Their methodology used is still a bit questionable to some, but we don’t know how they ended up being spot on in 2016.

Absent some huge blowout, I don't think we can get any reliable sign of this before getting significant returned in MI/PA/WI.  In 2020, a lot of people were sure Trump was going to win based on the early Florida results. Georgia should come in pretty early this year, but I expect this to be Biden's worst swing state, so a clear Trump lead there could be similarly misinterpreted.

I’ll say black voters going to Trump is way overhyped. Biden’s problem is turnout, not losing a large % of black voters to Trump. The rest are too early to say yet

Oddly enough, Biden is getting more Trump 2020 voters than Trump is getting Biden 2020. Turns out barely any Biden 2020 voters are defecting - any of Trump's strength once again comes from - you guessed it - 2020 non-voters

Biden 2020 voters:
Biden 85%
Trump 4%
Not sure/don’t know 6%
Would not vote 3%

Trump 2020 voters:
Trump 69%
Biden 22%
Not sure/don’t know 7%
Would not vote 1%

Voted for Someone else 2020 voters:
Biden 32%
Trump 8%
Not sure 6%
Would not vote 48%

Did not vote in 2020
Biden 38%
Trump 19%
Not sure/don’t know 16%
Would not vote 23%

https://x.com/blkprofcct/status/1790427325106123239

Trump win Nevada/Arizona
and if trump win Michigan it a sign that Biden have lost horribly.

You contribute nothing but spam to this board. Cut it out

What do you contribute?

A lot more than that guy. By the way, nobody asked you for your thoughts

Well Can you stop being Rude? nobody asking and liking that your being prestigious asshole to other members here.