State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[IceSpear]

Did someone mention this upthread... she's married to a woman and will be Oklahoma's first LGBT legislator.

Just knowing this fact, plus the fact that her opponent was undoubtedly a typical, that is to say God awful, Oklahoma Republican, makes me happy with this result.

Oh no! I'm happy there's diversity in redneck land rather than another Bible basher Republican in an overwhelmingly Republican state senate! I'm obviously not a real Republican after all!

To be fair Badger, it does seem like you're rooting for Democrats 90% of the time. Lol

[IceSpear]

Atlas red avatars when Democrats win abysmally low turnout special elections: "THE WAVE WILL BE MASSIVE!"

Atlas red avatars when Republicans win abysmally low turnout special elections: "Irrelevant, it was low turnout!"

[IceSpear]

Atlas red avatars when Republicans win abysmally low turnout special elections: "Irrelevant, it was low turnout!"

Um, literally no one has said this.

Atlas red avatars when Democrats win abysmally low turnout special elections: "THE WAVE WILL BE MASSIVE!"

Atlas red avatars when Republicans win abysmally low turnout special elections: "Irrelevant, it was low turnout!"

No single race tells the whole story, but you are just setting up a straw man to defeat since that seems to be your schtick at this point.

You guys might want to read the post right above yours.

I think the results in MA is not sooo surprising. Clinton won it only by 8 points and Obama only by 5. Reps hold State Senate seats in bluer places. Very low turnout was an issue for sure

And Ebsy, remember when you called me a concern troll for arguing Hillary wouldn't win Texas, Utah, and St. Charles County, MO? Good times, lol.

[IceSpear]

You guys might want to read the post right above yours.

Yes, where he said low turnout was a factor, just as it was in those Oklahoma specials. I missed "irrelevant" though - that's the part you added.

I live in Massachusetts and I'm genuinely curious why the R won here.

All these races are irrelevant. The turnouts are so ridiculously low that you can get extreme flukes like this Massachusetts race and the Oklahoma races easily. If you're going to build your case for a wave, you'd be best off using generic ballot polls and the Virginia results.

[IceSpear]

The N of the special elections this year is actually approaching the point where conclusions can be drawn. What is amusing, though, is that IceSpear is accusing everyone here of being obsessed with anecdotes while simultaneously latching onto a single anecdote and dismissing all other anecdotes to drive his preferred narrative.

I'm not sure what anecdote you think I'm clinging to or what you think "my narrative" is. I hardly think it's controversial to dismiss elections where the voter turnout percentage is in the single digits. And especially to dismiss them as not indicative of large nationwide trends. But if you're going to disagree, you can't then use "low turnout!" as an excuse for when one goes against you.

Admittedly, I did vastly overgeneralize from one poster's comment. But the unconditional accepance of anything positive and ignoring/dismissing of anything that goes against the preferred narrative is very common here in general. Just look at 2016. You called me a concern troll multiple times, but turns out I was actually far too OPTIMISTIC, lol.

[IceSpear]

On the positive side...this will encourage democrats not to get lazy about November.

What? Literally nobody outside of Atlas cares about these obscure elections. In fact, judging from the abysmal single digit turnout, Atlas cares more about them than the actual people in the districts, lol.

[IceSpear]

On the positive side...this will encourage democrats not to get lazy about November.

What? Literally nobody outside of Atlas cares about these obscure elections. In fact, judging from the abysmal single digit turnout, Atlas cares more about them than the actual people in the districts, lol.

They are a useful indicator of where the wind blows and which side is more enthusiastic.
Frankly last night's results are headscratching since Georgia was one of the best Democratic states in 2017 and they picked up seats considerably more difficult that those yesterday.
Maybe some people are still in holiday mood, or whatever.

I meant the poster talking about how "these elections will encourage Democrats not to be lazy about November." I doubt any more than 0.0001% of Democrats are even aware of the existence of these elections.

[IceSpear]

I just can't stop laughing at all of the Trump Twitter accounts claiming yesterday was a "Red Wave". They are so oblivious.

This is one of the most cringy videos I have ever watched.

https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/953477691461849088

I thought at some point maybe these people would start to get their heads out of their asses and take the warning signs seriously, but no, they are 100% gonna plug their ears and whistle right along past the graveyard. All the better though, continuing on their disastrous path will only make it easier for Democrats. And it'll make their November meltdowns even better when they're completely blindsided!

Speaking of counting your chickens before they hatch...

[IceSpear]

I have a gut feeling the Republican is going to win, or make it a close-ish race

Democrat then wins by 50 points.

Classic, LOL.