Predict delegate totals

[Likely Voter]

Predict the delegate totals (by percent) each GOP candidate will have by the convention (with pledged and unpledged)

For starters, here is where we are now (based on WSJ estimate)
Gingrich: 12.9%
Paul: 7.7%
Romney: 49.6%
Santorum: 29.0%

(Huntsman's 2 delegates are currently worth 0.8%)


Of course anything short of a someone with a majority results in a brokered convention

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Gingrich: (will drop out after Super Tuesday) so like 2%
Paul: 21%
Romney: 39%
Santorum: 38%

[Averroës Nix]

Feeling much more certain about my (probably slightly overgenerous) Paul and Gingrich estimates than I am about the Santorum-Romney split:

Romney 60%
Santorum 30%
Paul 7.5%
Gingrich 2.5%

[Lief 🗽]

Something like:

Romney: 60%
Santorum: 40%
Paul: 5%
Gingrich: 5%

[Stranger in a strange land]

Santorum is gaining momentum and will probably win the popular vote, though delegate allocation is heavily stacked in Romney's favor. If this thing looks like it's going all the way to the convention, it becomes unlikely that Newt will drop out. Therefore, it will probably end up something like:

Romney: 45%
Santorum: 37%
Paul: 11%
Gingrich: 7%

If this happens, the result of a brokered convention will probably be somewhat anti-climactic: the convention will be deadlocked on the first ballot, Romney and Santorum will make a deal, and the convention will overwhelmingly vote for a Romney/Santorum ticket on the 2nd ballot.

[Mr. Morden]

If this happens, the result of a brokered convention will probably be somewhat anti-climactic: the convention will be deadlocked on the first ballot, Romney and Santorum will make a deal, and the convention will overwhelmingly vote for a Romney/Santorum ticket on the 2nd ballot.

Santorum won't throw in the towel and settle for the #2 spot unless he's convinced that Romney's going to win anyway.

[Stranger in a strange land]

If this happens, the result of a brokered convention will probably be somewhat anti-climactic: the convention will be deadlocked on the first ballot, Romney and Santorum will make a deal, and the convention will overwhelmingly vote for a Romney/Santorum ticket on the 2nd ballot.

Santorum won't throw in the towel and settle for the #2 spot unless he's convinced that Romney's going to win anyway.

even if Romney loses, Santorum would still be setting himself up as the front-runner for 2016, when the Republican candidate, whoever he is, is likely to be in a much stronger position. He might even prefer for Romney to lose so he can run again in 2016 rather than in 2020, and besides the record for vice presidents getting elected to the presidency hasn't been all that impressive in recent times.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

If it's brokered, someone's going to have to make a deal with Romney. Gingrich would never settle for the VP spot and I doubt he and Santorum could collaborate. I think it'll be Romney/Santorum '12.

[Likely Voter]

I imagine in the above scenario Santorum would at least try to work out a deal with Gingrich and Paul. The question is, what do they demand?

Rick may be faced with a dilemma. Run for VP with Romney or run for Pres with radioactive Newt as his VP along with some loopy stuff Paul requires as part of his platform (gold standard? Ending the Fed? Legalizing drugs?)

[Mr. Morden]

If this happens, the result of a brokered convention will probably be somewhat anti-climactic: the convention will be deadlocked on the first ballot, Romney and Santorum will make a deal, and the convention will overwhelmingly vote for a Romney/Santorum ticket on the 2nd ballot.

Santorum won't throw in the towel and settle for the #2 spot unless he's convinced that Romney's going to win anyway.

even if Romney loses, Santorum would still be setting himself up as the front-runner for 2016, when the Republican candidate, whoever he is, is likely to be in a much stronger position. He might even prefer for Romney to lose so he can run again in 2016 rather than in 2020, and besides the record for vice presidents getting elected to the presidency hasn't been all that impressive in recent times.

By "win anyway", I mean win the nomination, not win the general election.  I'm saying that neither candidate is going to voluntarily give up their pursuit of the presidential nomination and settle for the vice presidential nomination unless they have absolutely no choice, and it's clear that the other guy is going to win the presidential nomination anyway.