If Conyers runs in 2018, what percentage can he get?

[Bidenworth2020]

Conyers is pretty controversial now after the whole paying off a person with government funds thing. My guess is floor is 68%

[Bismarck]

As hackish as southern evangelicals are, they can’t top the African American vote. Conyers could murder somebody and still be re-elected.

[Kamala]

As hackish as southern evangelicals are, they can’t top the African American vote. Conyers could murder somebody and still be re-elected.

Eh, African American voters voted out Bill Jefferson for Joseph Cao in 2008 of all years.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I could definitely see him losing the primary to a strong opponent, but it'd be a tough fight.

[smoltchanov]

As hackish as southern evangelicals are, they can’t top the African American vote. Conyers could murder somebody and still be re-elected.

Eh, African American voters voted out Bill Jefferson for Joseph Cao in 2008 of all years.

No. If a turnout among Blacks in 2008 would be normal - Jefferson would get reelected. He was defeated by coalition of some Blacks and almost all others. Even that was barely enough.

[NewYorkExpress]

If Conyers gets a serious primary opponent that's not Mike Duggan, he loses.

He probably wins against Duggan because the race breaks down on racial lines.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

As hackish as southern evangelicals are, they can’t top the African American vote. Conyers could murder somebody and still be re-elected.

Conyers isn't from the south. His district is in and around Detroit and is only 1/3 white. Conyers wins the general election in a typical landslide, but could face a tough primary challenge. He's been around forever. The seat is probably still his if he wants it.

[Rookie Yinzer]

As hackish as southern evangelicals are, they can’t top the African American vote. Conyers could murder somebody and still be re-elected.

Voting against a party that literally advocates for racial discrimination against you and courts Neo-Nazis and Klan members is not being hackish.

[Heisenberg]

As hackish as southern evangelicals are, they can’t top the African American vote. Conyers could murder somebody and still be re-elected.

Eh, African American voters voted out Bill Jefferson for Joseph Cao in 2008 of all years.

No. If a turnout among Blacks in 2008 would be normal - Jefferson would get reelected. He was defeated by coalition of some Blacks and almost all others. Even that was barely enough.

Correct. Since it was New Orleans, 3 years after Katrina, many people (mostly Blacks) must have been displaced.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

As hackish as southern evangelicals are, they can’t top the African American vote. Conyers could murder somebody and still be re-elected.

Eh, African American voters voted out Bill Jefferson for Joseph Cao in 2008 of all years.

Not really a good example since he was re-elected after the scandal started in 2006, and even managed to win the primary in 2008.

[Young Conservative]

Are you implying he survives a primary?