Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[heatcharger]

Now is really not the time to be making insane predictions

[smoltchanov]

Whether we like it or not, Roy Moore will win by double digits (between 10 and 20 imo). This sexual accusation wave is very similar to what happened with Donald Trump in Mid-October, several establishment Republicans came out against him (and then came back to him before election day lol), if the Republicans find a way to disprove this it'll help him even more. I'm not sure why people think all of these establishment figures coming out against Trump Roy Moore will hurt him, it won't.

Yup. lol @ the people in this thread thinking Alabamans would vote for a Democrat over a child molester. I've been saying for months now that Moore could hold a Klan rally or molest someone on live tv and he'd have a 100% shot at winning.

Sadly, but i tend to agree. Even relatively conservative Democrat now rarely suits these people (most Alabama Republicans). Pro-choice candidate (like Jones) with "D" after his name is absolutely worse for them then "simple" sexual predator with "R" and ultra-right following... It was the same 50-60 years ago with Civil Rights  (you only needed to say "this candidate seeks Black vote", and he was essentially doomed at polls, even if an opponent was WCC member or KKK supporter), now it's repeated with "social issues". Alabamians lerned er-r-r.... very little.

[Mr. Morden]

This sexual accusation wave is very similar to what happened with Donald Trump in Mid-October, several establishment Republicans came out against him (and then came back to him before election day lol)

Chaffetz and Crapo did that (unendorsed him after Access Hollywood, and then re-endorsed him), but basically everyone else who un-endorsed him after Access Hollywood stuck to their guns through to election day.

[tallguy23]

The main thing that is telling here: where are the character witnesses for Moore? Where are those who are saying he is honorable and just? The most we have heard is: "Liberal attacks! Leftist lies!" or even worse "Even if...I will not vote for Jones." No one is choosing to testify on behalf of Moore, just attempt to undermine these women's credibility.

Exactly. If Alabama elects this sick f*** it deserves to slide into the ocean.

What a disgusting state of affairs for our nation.

[ursulahx]

This ‘if true’ line used in all the GOP statements is going to be their out. Next week all will be forgiven and they’ll just say it was never proven

Exactly. The "if proven true" is their fig leaf. Until these allegations are proven in a court of law (and presumably that would be very difficult), they're just going to shrug and say, "so what? I've already said he should go if he's guilty, but that hasn't been proven yet." And they can say this all through Moore's tenure in the Senate, until he does or says something else.

[Fudotei]

Now, of course, emphasis on "Lean/Likely D" in my first prediction.

Bentley stepped down when he acknowledged the harassment claims were true, and without further probing by WaPo or someone else, a majority of the public believes these stories aren't true. (See the Sabato poll).

If you're Moore, and this isn't true, you can still win by deny, deny, deny. I believe it's probably true. But that doesn't mean the Alabama public has to. If he confirms he stripped down a 14 year old, that's something that will sink his campaign, but it isn't as bad as it could have been. He did stop, and he's now denying the story.

Wait for the data to see how people believe it. Maybe Fox hasn't been covering the story at all.

[Brittain33]

I think people are taking the Access Hollywood comparison too far.

Doug Jones is basically Generic D. Many Republicans in Alabama may despise Generic D, but it's a larger universe of Alabamans who absolutely despise Hillary Clinton going back 20+ years. You are not going to see as many people overcoming their revulsion and voting Moore to "stop Jones" as they did with Trump to "stop Clinton."

Secondly, we've heard from a lot of Republican men in these quotes about why molesting a 14-year-old is ok. It's plausible that white Republican women in Alabama are going to respond very differently than men, if quietly so.

Third, it's a special election in December so staying home is a realistic option for many who would never miss a Presidential election.

[Rookie Yinzer]

It's plausible that white Republican women in Alabama are going to respond very differently than men, if quietly so.

Fat chance.

[BuckeyeNut]

It's not like Jones needs to flip Moore voters. So long as would-be Moore supporters stay home, Jones just needs to turn out his base.

[ursulahx]

If Jones is smart - and I suspect he is - he'll run on healthcare and maybe the tax bill (although I think the latter is a double-edged sword). He won't run on character. Let the stories do the work by themselves.

As others have said, it comes down to: will evangelicals come out for Moore, regardless? (My guess is yes, but I don't know if they constitute a majority.) Will other R voters stay home, write in Strange, or switch to Jones? (My guess is yes, some; yes, a handful; not many esp. given Jones is pro-choice.) EDIT: Of course, this may all have blown over by early December, in which case Moore can likely ride it out (see what I did there?).

I can see Jones getting within 4 points, but I can't see him winning. But I thought Gillespie was going to win, so what do I know.

[Young Conservative]

Stop comparing a tape of Donald Trump saying something that he apologized for with accusations from multiple women that Roy Moore pursued sexual relations with a girl at fourteen. There's not a comparison. Just because two things are bad does not mean each is equally bad. One of these is clearly worse

[smoltchanov]

This will totally energize Moore’s base and he’ll win by an even bigger margin than before now. Liberals have been cucked yet again.

That's exactly the reason i wouldn't like to have anything in common with such "base" (party notwithstanding). In short - i absolutely disdain it. And begin to agree with Clinton's words about "deplorables"......

[GeorgiaModerate]

Romney:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[GlobeSoc]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/928955931588808704

[Brittain33]

Stop comparing a tape of Donald Trump saying something that he apologized for with accusations from multiple women that Roy Moore pursued sexual relations with a girl at fourteen. There's not a comparison. Just because two things are bad does not mean each is equally bad. One of these is clearly worse

On the Access Hollywood tape, Trump bragged about assaulting women--forcing kisses on them and "grabbing their pussy"--and 16 women have come forward to claim he assualted them sexually.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Does Alabama have early voting at all?

[Santander]

Does Alabama have early voting at all?

For whites, yes.

[GlobeSoc]

Does Alabama have early voting at all?

Excuse only, and I'm not sure if it's even started yet at all.

[Gone to Carolina]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/928955931588808704

oWo what's this.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Does Alabama have early voting at all?

Excuse only, and I'm not sure if it's even started yet at all.

I was hoping that Jones could bank as many votes as he could out of Birmingham/Montgomery/Black Belt and spend the final stretch appealing to whatever whites he could.

Also wondering if the National Democrat Party will invest here seriously. They either win the seat or have the Republicans sending an accused child molestor to the Senate. They can spin it either way this is Alabama— Jones shouldn’t even be in striking distance.

[Pyro]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/928955931588808704

If this is leading where it appears to be, then let's just say I hope we don't have another Ossoff/Quist situation.

[GlobeSoc]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/928955931588808704

If this is leading where it appears to be, then let's just say I hope we don't have another Ossoff/Quist situation.

The National Dems aren't getting involved and most of the ads are pro-Jones biography ads right now. They are using a good strategy, IMO.

[swf541]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/928955931588808704

If this is leading where it appears to be, then let's just say I hope we don't have another Ossoff/Quist situation.

The National Dems aren't getting involved and most of the ads are pro-Jones biography ads right now. They are using a good strategy, IMO.

That and you know neither of them were accused of sexually assaulting a minor....

[Oryxslayer]

National Dems not getting in is perhaps the best scenario for them - as GA - 06 showed, pouring money into a race invigorates the opposition, while SC-05 showed what a sleepy race might provide. Their best bet is to keep the story one of Moore's continued dominance, even as these allegations wreck havoc upon the field. I still think until we see more data, Moore is ahead and should win.

[Cassandra]

I really hope people in Alabama reject Moore after this. If well substantiated allegations of pedophilia are not enough to shake Republican voters of their tribal instincts, nothing will.