Louisiana Nov 16, 2019 Run-Off Election Results thread

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I think JBE wins, but by a small margin. Prob 1 to 2 points.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

It's starting

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Flip it! Flip it! Flip it! Flip it! Flip it! Flip it! Flip it!

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Any idea how long until the first precinct reports?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

<1% reporting

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1195887788270538752

That puts him at losing it assuming it's +10 overstated for him again

[Libertas Vel Mors]

WE CAN NOW PROJECT THAT R. KYLE ARDOIN HAS BEEN REELECTED AS LA SOS. (Republican Hold)

Quick lol

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1195889167026315265

Interesting, though that's still only 1100 votes

[Libertas Vel Mors]

WHY ISN'T ORLEANS REPORTING

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Just heard on WWL that JBE is getting *99%* of the African-American vote statewide, which is, uh, troubling for Rispone.

Stacey Abrams sitting out there tonight watching these

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Yikes!

[Libertas Vel Mors]

So when does JBE actually take the lead?

now

[Libertas Vel Mors]

If JBE wins, there's no doubt: the suburbs and urban areas are all that's responsible. Most of rural LA has swung 25-40 points to Rispone compared to 2015, despite JBE being a popular pro-life Democrat who gave hundreds of thousands of poor white trash healthcare and balanced the budget. Really no reason left to pander anymore...

What makes you think being pro-gun and pro-life only matters to rural voters? It's a big part of why JBE is winning in the suburbs tonight

[Libertas Vel Mors]

When I'm right about 2020 I'll look like a genius

And when you’re not you’ll become a massive punchline here

I will be right . I understand politics better than anyone on here.

The 2019 governor elections are an absolute disaster for Trump and the Republicans. That's not really an arguable point.

Disaster goes too far for the net loss of a single governorship

[Libertas Vel Mors]

When I'm right about 2020 I'll look like a genius

And when you’re not you’ll become a massive punchline here

I will be right . I understand politics better than anyone on here.

Arrogance like that won’t make you a lot of friends here

I don't care . I'm a successful 33 year old Male.  I don't care what Democrat hacks on the internet think of me.

Dude, just ignore them and move past it. They'll find a way to laugh at you no matter what you do, just focus on the elections. It's not worth your time.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

If JBE wins, there's no doubt: the suburbs and urban areas are all that's responsible. Most of rural LA has swung 25-40 points to Rispone compared to 2015, despite JBE being a popular pro-life Democrat who gave hundreds of thousands of poor white trash healthcare and balanced the budget. Really no reason left to pander anymore...

What makes you think being pro-gun and pro-life only matters to rural voters? It's a big part of why JBE is winning in the suburbs tonight

The difference in the suburbs between 2015 and tonight is built off of a large cohort of GOP-DEM converts who didn't vote for JBE 4 years ago and who don't really care about all of that to the same extent; they're mostly post-Trump former GOP exiles. More than anything, these types are "anti-gun" in the way you look at them.

Let's also not forget that black voters are likely responsible for a hefty portion of this, considering JBE is only outperforming his 2015 margins in a handful of suburban areas (Jefferson - & Tammany by a hair).

Then why did they vote for Republicans in every other race tonight?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

When I'm right about 2020 I'll look like a genius

And when you’re not you’ll become a massive punchline here

I will be right . I understand politics better than anyone on here.

The 2019 governor elections are an absolute disaster for Trump and the Republicans. That's not really an arguable point.

So how will President Fartbag and his spin machine spin this one?

Haha what an amazing roast you're so funny

[Libertas Vel Mors]

If JBE wins, there's no doubt: the suburbs and urban areas are all that's responsible. Most of rural LA has swung 25-40 points to Rispone compared to 2015, despite JBE being a popular pro-life Democrat who gave hundreds of thousands of poor white trash healthcare and balanced the budget. Really no reason left to pander anymore...

What makes you think being pro-gun and pro-life only matters to rural voters? It's a big part of why JBE is winning in the suburbs tonight

The difference in the suburbs between 2015 and tonight is built off of a large cohort of GOP-DEM converts who didn't vote for JBE 4 years ago and who don't really care about all of that to the same extent; they're mostly post-Trump former GOP exiles. More than anything, these types are "anti-gun" in the way you look at them.

Let's also not forget that black voters are likely responsible for a hefty portion of this, considering JBE is only outperforming his 2015 margins in a handful of suburban areas (Jefferson - & Tammany by a hair).

Then why did they vote for Republicans in every other race tonight?

Because nobody knows any of those other downballot losers and no-names.

Ok, but you were literally just saying suburban voters voted for JBE because they're exiles from the GOP who have lost their connection to it.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

sad

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Yeah. Dems doing badly in the suburbs is really bad for us if it keeps up, and there's no denying that. That's why we need Nikki Haley on the ballot in 2024.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Yeah. Dems doing badly in the suburbs is really bad for us if it keeps up, and there's no denying that. That's why we need Nikki Haley on the ballot in 2024.

Just because the GOP nominee is a female who so happens to not be White American doesn't mean suburban voters are suddenly going to flock back.

Sure, but she also has the kind of tempermant, demeanor, and common sense conservative policies that have won us the suburbs before. Plus, one of the big reasons for the suburban trend left is that the GOP is perceived as intolerant of non-white voters (a problem as the suburbs become more diverse). She can help fix that perception.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Yeah. Dems doing badly in the suburbs is really bad for us if it keeps up, and there's no denying that. That's why we need Nikki Haley on the ballot in 2024.

Just because the GOP nominee is a female who so happens to not be White American doesn't mean suburban voters are suddenly going to flock back.

Sure, but she also has the kind of tempermant, demeanor, and common sense conservative policies that have won us the suburbs before. Plus, one of the big reasons for the suburban trend left is that the GOP is perceived as intolerant of non-white voters (a problem as the suburbs become more diverse). She can help fix that perception.

How does she get nominated?

By being popular with both the Trumpist and Non-Trumpist wings of the party, like she is now?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Yeah. Dems doing badly in the suburbs is really bad for us if it keeps up, and there's no denying that. That's why we need Nikki Haley on the ballot in 2024.

Just because the GOP nominee is a female who so happens to not be White American doesn't mean suburban voters are suddenly going to flock back.

Sure, but she also has the kind of tempermant, demeanor, and common sense conservative policies that have won us the suburbs before. Plus, one of the big reasons for the suburban trend left is that the GOP is perceived as intolerant of non-white voters (a problem as the suburbs become more diverse). She can help fix that perception.

It's more than that.  The suburbs have moved left because the issues that face suburban voters are different than those of years past.  It's not Boomers and Silents mad about tax increases anymore.  Now, it's about Millennials and Xers being mad about student loan debt, healthcare costs, and climate change.

Explain why so many suburbs split tickets for state level Republicans in 2018 then.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Yeah. Dems doing badly in the suburbs is really bad for us if it keeps up, and there's no denying that. That's why we need Nikki Haley on the ballot in 2024.

Her chances of ever winning a Republican primary ended when she took down the Confederate flag at the SC statehouse.

Yawn. "Muh racist Republicans"

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Still she wasn't a "flaming liberal"...

Oh sure, I’m not saying Democrats should run "flaming liberals" in these states (being pro-life always helps), but the fact that JBE only did 1-2% better than Andy Beshear (despite being pro-life, a popular incumbent, running in a state less Republican than KY) and Jim Hood barely outperformed Mike Espy is a sign that times are changing.

So elasticity isn't a thing anymore?