Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Diouf]

http://www.ansa.it/web/notizie/rubriche/english/2014/01/29/-Electoral-law-deal-close-_9981912.html

So after the Constitutional Court stroke down the previous electoral law because of the winner's bonus and because of the closed lists, they have agreed on a new electoral law with a winner's bonus and with closed lists. Makes sense

[Diouf]

Polls from IPR. Hope the translations are about right, not Italian speaker.



The Renzi-Letta shift

Against
In favour
Don't know/no opinion



Evaluation of the Letta-Renzi shift

Negative, and does not like Renzi
Negative, but likes Renzi
Positive, in order to save Italy
Don't know/ no opinion


How long will the Renzi government last?

Shortly, maximum a year
More than a year, but not 2018
Until the end of the term (2018)
Don't know/no opinion

[Diouf]

Lib Dem MEP Andrew Duff on Italy's new poor electoral law:

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http://andrewduff.blogactiv.eu/2014/03/13/out-of-the-pigsty-andrew-duff-questions-italys-new-electoral-law/

[Diouf]

It's not possible to legislate away the fact that a very large portion of the Italian electorate wants Berlusconi.

It's definitely worth a try. I'd really like to take principled stances like you guys, but Italy just can't afford our principles right now.

But shouldn't they at least try to make something that does not contain the two things that the constitutional court has just struck down? This seems like the German EP system spectacle all over again. I really hope the court strikes down the new law before the election as well.

[Diouf]

It's not possible to legislate away the fact that a very large portion of the Italian electorate wants Berlusconi.

It's definitely worth a try. I'd really like to take principled stances like you guys, but Italy just can't afford our principles right now.

But shouldn't they at least try to make something that does not contain the two things that the constitutional court has just struck down? This seems like the German EP system spectacle all over again. I really hope the court strikes down the new law before the election as well.

The difference between the previous system and Renzi's is that the majority bonus would be assigned only if a coalition wins over 37% of the votes.* Otherwise, a runoff is held between the two most voted coalitions. What the Court did not want is to have a coalition win less than 30% and still get 55% of seats, which was considered an excessive distorsion. I'm not sure if the 37% threshold will be considered enough, but it might well be.

*Yes, I know that's still too low. There's been extensive bargain with Berlusconi to raise it, this is the best he could get.

Thanks, found this blog which discusses it further: http://www.verfassungsblog.de/de/the-italian-electoral-law-of-march-2014-still-constitutionally-questionable/#.UyYm-YXPbl0

Quite interesting. Especially the part about the threshold for smaller parties. Looking at recent polls, a quite likely result would be a victory for the centre-right which could just reach 37 %, but with all other parties than Forza Italia gaining below 4.5 % so that FI gets 54 % of the seats on as low as 25-26 % of the vote. That would be quite an excessive distortion as well.

[Diouf]

^^^

Could someone explain *exactly* how the new law works?

My understanding

The starting point is PR. Thresholds are 12 % for coalitions, 8 % for parties, and 4.5 % for parties in a coalition. The party/coalition with the highest amount of votes will get a bonus of 15 %, but the bonus can only be used to reach maximum 54 %. The bonus for the leading party/coalition will only be activated if the winning entity gets at least 37 %. If no one reaches that number, a run-off betweeen the two most popular coalitions/parties will be held, and the winner will get 53 % of the seats.

[Diouf]

An example based on the latest poll:

The centre-right coalition will just win and get 37.6 + 15 = 52.6 % of the seats. These 331 seats will be divided between Forza Italia, Lega Nord and Nuovo Centrodestra who all reached the 4.5 % mark. The remaining seats will be distributed between Partito Democratico and Movimento 5 Stelle.


Forza Italia 237 seats
Lega Nord 48 seats
Nuovo Centrodestra 46 seats

Partito Democratico 199 seats

Movimento 5 Stelle 100 seats

This calculation is without the regional parties, which I guess will still be able to win a few seats in Aosta and South Tyrol. Also with this law, it will make sense for many of the small parties to be allowed to run in a few constituencies on the biggest party's list, but I'm not sure whether the two big parties will allow that.

[Diouf]

PD candidates for EU elections

www.partitodemocratico.it/doc/267035/i-candidati-alle-elezioni-europee-2014.htm

I see Cecilie Kyenge is running. So we know what Lega Nord will campaign on in Nord Est...

[Diouf]

...and it turns out the PD has just officially endorsed Mattarella. Go figure.

Mattarella is backed by many of the M5S defectors as well:

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http://www.ansa.it/english/news/2015/01/28/renzi-meets-with-delegation-of-m5s-defectors_f257075a-ba6c-4a49-9993-f756373fbbbe.html

[Diouf]

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http://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2015/04/29/renzi-govt-passes-first-italicum-vote_84a8ad4a-ac74-44c6-bf58-530bcbc9256b.html

[Diouf]

Today's confidence vote was on article 1 of the Italicum

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http://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2015/04/29/factbox-article-1-of-italicum-bill_80094ceb-517c-4a8b-b4b2-ec9c132fec33.html

[Diouf]

Italicum gets final approval

http://www.ansa.it/english/news/2015/05/04/renzis-italicum-wins-final-approval_311de4a9-0966-4b1a-a988-5840def0bcc6.html



On current polls, the runoff would be between PD and M5S which would of course mean a giant victory for Renzi. The polls would probably start asking the run-off question now, but I guess that M5S would attract relatively few votes in the second round. Perhaps some anti-Renzi voters from Lega Nord, but would they even bother showing up for the run-off?
Silvio or whoever will run Forza Italia has some catching up to do if they should have a shot at making the run-off. I would still think that they would have a bigger chance of beating M5S than Lega Nord, even in its new nationwide form. Alfano just makes it pass the threshold in this poll, but it will be tight. He could face the same destiny as Fini did last time around.

[Diouf]

So could we see a slight fracturing of the PD as the right-wing factions break off? Centrists too, maybe?

What's the prognosis for the future, exactly? Is PD basically going to have a long period of time in power until Berlusconi kicks the bucket and FI has to figure out what to do? Could Brothers of Italy and NCD pick off support from PD?

Well, with the current polls where PD is dead certain to be involved in the run-off, then some could speculate in voting for a smaller party in the first round to increase their representation in parliament. However, I would mostly think that it would be left-wing PDers who would vote for SEL. But there could certainly also be some centrist/centre-right versions, who could vote for NCD or a new viable centrist party to ensure that they cross the 3% threshold.

[Diouf]

Sondaggio Demos Poll:

[Diouf]

The first poll I have seen, where PD wouldn't win.

Sondaggio Ipr/Tg3 poll:

[Diouf]

Here's a poll btw:

5 Stars 26.5
Democrats 31.8
Forza Italy 11.6
Northen Leauge + Salvini's Southern Pals 15.8
Lefties 3.2
Bros of Italy 5.6
New Centre Right 2.7
Other 4.7

Second Round

5 Stars 50.8
Democrats 49.2

Which would be very interesting, lol.
 

The same poll (Sondaggio EMG for TgLa7) includes an option with the existence of the expected centre-right coalition.

PD 31.8
Centre-right 31.3
5 stars 28.4
Lefts 3.0
New Centre-right 1.8
Others 3.7

The two other possible second round match-ups

PD 52.8
Centre-right 47.3

5 star 52.4
Centre-right 47.6

[Diouf]

Who would lead the right coalition? Berlusconi, Salvini or some more palatable face?

Salvini, probably. Berlusconi is old news and desperately trying to stay relevant and not to be overshadowed by Salvini (too late, by this poll). Salvini's leadership is noted for expanding its support outside of the north and mellowing on the anti-South rhetoric of the Bossi era. They want to win and they see Salvini as their PM candidate

However, Salvini is not very popular among the general electorate. 57 % would look negatively upon him being their prime ministerial candidate. That would probably make it even more difficult for them to win a head-to-head, where they are already behind in most polls. The best option would probably be a non-Berlusconi FI candidate. Much will depend on the method. As far as I know, no method for electing the prime ministerial candidate has been chosen yet. Berlusconi doesn't like the idea of primaries and prefers deals between the parties, while Lega and Brothers seem to prefer primaries. Salvini will probably win a primary, but a political deal could perhaps lead to a candidate with a broader appeal. The same discussion of primary or not primary seem to be ongoing in the center-right alliances before the local elections in a few months.

[Diouf]

EMG poll that came out Sunday showed M5S 53 PD 47 for runoff.

But this whole runoff thingy becomes much less interesting now that the Senate still matters and has a regional based electoral system in which it will be very hard for a party to win a majority without a big lead.

[Diouf]

EMG poll that came out Sunday showed M5S 53 PD 47 for runoff.

But this whole runoff thingy becomes much less interesting now that the Senate still matters and has a regional based electoral system in which it will be very hard for a party to win a majority without a big lead.

Sure, but since a government requires that a majority for Lower House and Senate be assembled I rather be a party that wins the Lower House runoff for bonus seats since that guarantees that my party gets the PM position.  The Senate election will decided which other parties I have to rope in for power sharing. So all in all I rather win the Lower House runoff than not.

It's just that the M5S has insisted on not working with any of the other parties, and the third pole being a right-wing coalition dominated by the Lega, it is hard to see any viable compromise. It is very hard to see any PM post for the M5S even if they should win the Lower House. But yeah rather win than not, and M5S could block the PD from the PM post, but if the PD performs poorly and loses the House, then it would anyway be in such a difficult position in the Senate that it would be difficult to get majority support even for them. 

[Diouf]

Very interesting development. Quite a significant symbolic shift, at least. The M5S have always been at odds with the UKIP members in that the Italians have actually tried to make real parliamentary work. Also they rarely vote the same, so it has been more of a marriage of convenience to get funds etc. Curious whether ALDE will accept them, but it would make them the third-largest group again, which Verhofstadt would love.

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-m5s-ukip-idUSKBN14S0HN

[Diouf]

In addition to that, EFD would lose its status as a parliamentary group as far as I know.

The limit is 25 MEPs from 7 countries. Without M5S, they will have 27 MEPs from seven countries, so they will just maintain its status if no others leave. But it is hanging on by a thread, four of the countries are only represented by one MEP. And the Sweden Democrats and Order and Justice (Lithuania) might begin to prepare for the next term, where the EFDD group will certainly not exist. It is perhaps most likely that they will go towards ECR, who looks certain to exist in the next term as well, although it will be severely weakened without the Tories. The ENF is a more uncertain possibility, and I would think that at least the Sweden Democrats would like to look a bit more, not less, mainstream.

[Diouf]

I hope that they will soon get what the Constitutional Court is telling them and make a fair and lasting electoral system instead of (in vain) trying to get around the clear requirements set by the court. Make it full PR and completely open lists, something like a return to the 1946-1993 law.

[Diouf]

I hope that they will soon get what the Constitutional Court is telling them and make a fair and lasting electoral system instead of (in vain) trying to get around the clear requirements set by the court. Make it full PR and completely open lists, something like a return to the 1946-1993 law.

In principle I agree with you, but in the current context of Italian politics, this would be a recipe for disaster.

I'm not sure it is the best idea to focus to much on the current political context. When Italicum was put into place, many figured it would clearly mean PD-victory as they were way ahead in polls. With the majority bonus, Renzi could carry out his sweeping reforms, which would be "a good thing". However, in the current state of affairs, Italicum would probably lead to a majority for Grillo and the Five Star Movement, which I don't believe as many sees as a "a good thing". I believe the best solution is to simply let parliament reflect the views of the population. If this results in a "Populist United Front" of M5S, Lega Nord etc with a majority, then so be it

[Diouf]

I hope that they will soon get what the Constitutional Court is telling them and make a fair and lasting electoral system instead of (in vain) trying to get around the clear requirements set by the court. Make it full PR and completely open lists, something like a return to the 1946-1993 law.

In principle I agree with you, but in the current context of Italian politics, this would be a recipe for disaster.

I'm not sure it is the best idea to focus to much on the current political context. When Italicum was put into place, many figured it would clearly mean PD-victory as they were way ahead in polls. With the majority bonus, Renzi could carry out his sweeping reforms, which would be "a good thing". However, in the current state of affairs, Italicum would probably lead to a majority for Grillo and the Five Star Movement, which I don't believe as many sees as a "a good thing". I believe the best solution is to simply let parliament reflect the views of the population. If this results in a "Populist United Front" of M5S, Lega Nord etc with a majority, then so be it

It's not just that.
It's that the PR system which characterized the First Republic was the key element behind many of Italy's problem: fragmented governments with indecisive majorities which relied on policies aimed at the short term (which built our huge public debt) and looked at the special interests of small parties or even individual deputies.
So I am deeply against it not because of its impact in the current situation, but because of its future repercussions...

Probably hard to cast all of Italy's problems on the voting system. If a majority of Italians insist of voting for parties, that don't want to do necessary changes and perhaps even make the situation worse, then that it's how things will develop. And if that is how the Italians want to vote, then there is quite a big probability that even in majoritarian systems, the Italian voters would just give even bigger powers to those parties doing the wrong things. And in terms of general stability, it would at least help if they make a new electoral law, that is not obviously going to be struck down in the Constitutional Court like the Italicum.

[Diouf]

I am not saying the voting system is the cause of all of Italy's problems, but a PR system would certainly amplify them, as shown during the First Republic. There is no no such thing as a theoretically perfect electoral law, it all depends on the framework. And Italy's worst aspects come out in force with a PR system in place.

If a populist party wins in a majoritarian system so be it, but Italy cannot stand other decades of governments in which no one is held truly accountable.

ok, obviously not gonna agree here. Just really don't see the case for Italian exceptionalism in not being able to handle PR, but it also seems that it is more like the general disagreement about electoral systems which is totally fair: e.g. Is there accountability in PR?, which I will of course say that there fully is.