Using the last presidential election as a metric, Kerry by this time in 2004 always had a respectable 6 to sometimes even a 10 point lead over Bush, so the prognosis doesn’t look good (at this point, at least) for the Dems. And yes, we’ve come to the time in the year where state-by-state polls do matter. Face it: McCain has the potential to actually snatch some blue states away from the Dems and if he can squeeze out a victory in Ohio, MI, or PA then the fat lady has sung. All the crackheads in Detroit won’t be able to save Obambi in the Wolverine State come November.
Yeah that's your problem. This race is different from 04 in so many way's. Kerry did as bad as he did in Michigan due to generally low turnout in Detroit. It won't happen this time. Plus Oakland Co. has real potential for Obama. Also, as a general Michigan election rule, you almost need Oakland to win in Michigan.