2017 British Columbia election

[jaichind]

If NDP and LIB are neck-to-neck then my guess is that NDP will win.  I assume the pollsters have adjusted their methods after the 2013 polling failure to pick up LIB support.  My guess they mostly have over adjusted and this time NDP will under-poll.

[jaichind]

Total vote count lead by LIB of 47.3% vs NDP 35.1% looks pretty good for LIB right now ...

[jaichind]

The CON vote collapse should seem like a bad sign for NDP.  

[jaichind]

The CON vote collapse should seem like a bad sign for NDP.  

LOL they're a non-factor; running in just 10 seats

Well, they did get almost 5% of the vote in 2013.  Now I think it is near zero.

[jaichind]

Pretty amazing how close the seat count is given the large LIB vote share lead.

[jaichind]

The one seat with no results went Green back in 2013

[jaichind]

So far LIB is ahead in 11 seats with leads with less than 1000 votes.  NDP is ahead in 19 seats with leads less than 1000 votes.  So all things equal the LIB seat count is more likely to go up than down.

[jaichind]

1 LIB lead at risk: Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
4 NDP lead at risk: Maple Ridge-Mission, Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, Courtenay-Comox, Saanich South

All things equal if there are going to be shifts now it will be in the advantage of LIB

[jaichind]

Balance of risk shifting against LIB

Now at risk for LIB:  Vancouver-False Creek, Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
and at  risk for NDP: Maple Ridge-Mission, Cowichan Valley (to Greens)

[jaichind]

Cowichan Valley now has Greens ahead

[jaichind]

Vancouver-False Creek now NDP ahead

[jaichind]

84% chance of hung parliament according to CTV.

Yeah, if Greens gets 3 seats then it is hard for either LIB or NDP to win 44 at this stage.

[jaichind]

LIB vote share lead down to 2%

[jaichind]

This result is a dream come true for the Greens

[jaichind]

Maple Ridge-Mission now has LIB ahead
 

[jaichind]

So, one thing to remember: Lots of advance votes still left to count. They wont be counted for a while (days?) because Elections BC is understaffed. This election probably wont be called tonight.

Historically has such advanced votes favored LIB or NDP?

[jaichind]

1 LIB at risk : Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
3 NDP at risk: Courtenay-Comox, Vancouver-False Creek, Maple Ridge-Mission

[jaichind]

All 3 NDP seats at risk: Courtenay-Comox, Vancouver-False Creek, Maple Ridge-Mission all just got closer.

[jaichind]

Assuming it ends up 42-42 I assume LIB can also claim, in addition to being the incumbent party, that they won the popular vote so they should have first shot at government formation.

[jaichind]

I assume that if it ends up being a minority government of some sort that we should be seeing a mid-term election soon ?

[jaichind]

I guess for Richmond-Queensborough, Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, Courtenay-Comox, Vancouver-False Creek, Maple Ridge-Mission the results will have to be determined by early votes.

[jaichind]

How does 44/43 last 4 years?

More likely to be 44/42, as Speaker doesn't vote.

So the assumption is that the Speaker comes from the LIBs ?